<Anchor>

Friday's friendly economy, Kwon Ae-ri, reporter. Kwon, the economic growth rate of 2% this year since the third quarter's growth rate was announced.

<Reporter>

Yes, our economy grew 0.4% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. This would require an additional 1% growth in the fourth quarter before it could reach 2% this year.

By the way, is there a lot of red light in 4Q? It was three months ago that the government announced that the Korean economy will grow 2.4-2.5% this year.

That number was similar to our current level of potential growth. In other words, Korea's current goal is about 2.5 if we work hard at all times without any side effects.

However, as a result, the achievement of 2% this year cannot be guaranteed at this time. The question and answer that came out of the national audit yesterday (24th) reflects our situation in one word.

[Kim Sung-sik / National Assembly Planning & Finance Commissioner (Barun Future Party): Do you not think that growth of 1% is inevitable?]

[Lee Ju-yeol / Bank of Korea: 2% will not be easy at the moment… ]

[Kim Seong-sik / National Assembly Planning & Finance Commissioner (Right Future Party): To sum up, if the US-China trade dispute subsides a bit, there is some expectation.

[Hong Nam Ki / Deputy Prime Minister: Yes.]

[Kim Sung-sik / National Assembly Planning & Finance Commissioner (Barun Future Party): Private vitality is still bad. Finances have already spent a lot of ammunition, so it is difficult to expect the same growth contributions as last year. So growth of 1% is inevitable… ]

<Anchor>

I'm curious about the numbers, so I think it's good to have a high growth rate anyway. Can you explain more about the situation?

<Reporter>

In 2017, the real growth rate was 3.2%. Last year it was 2.7%. But even if you achieve 2% this year, your growth is at least 40% less than in 2017, two years ago.

25% more than last year. This alone is not a negligible downtrend. But if you look into these numbers, there's a little more worrying about them.

In fact, government investment and consumption have grown 6.4% this year compared to the third quarter of last year.

But why is it so poor, as you can see in this table, private investment, consumption, and the private sector are falling?

The economy is, after all, that the private sector is actively doing well with businesses, merchants and neighborhood shops.

But even if the government is working hard to solve the problem, it is a big problem that private consumption and investment do not survive this much.

This year, in our GDP calculations, the so-called inventory is a significant part. What this means is that the products that our factories work so hard to produce are not selling properly.

For example, the unsold and stacked semiconductors, which are made for example, are a positive factor in calculating economic growth numbers themselves. Is calculated as something similar.

That's a positive sign, or not. The numbers are positive but not positive. In the meantime, there have been fewer places where companies buy investments, and if so, it will be hard for companies to make more investments or incentives to invest.

[Hong Joon-pyo / Research Fellow, Hyundai Economic Research Institute: In a situation where the economic outlook is opaque and the demand pressure is low enough to be concerned about deflation, companies tend to use their existing inventory rather than making more goods or investing. , (Stocking up) doesn't really help the economy recover.]

<Anchor>

Anyway, I will have to do my best, but what should I do?

<Reporter>

The situation is difficult. We have to export, but the global economy is not good, and we are facing the aftermath of the US-China trade dispute.

In addition, the problem itself is that the growth rate of potential growth, that is, the level of performance that our economy can now achieve without side effects in power, is gradually falling.

So, as we've heard before, there's no limit to how much government we can do and how much money we can afford.

Clearly, the government must spend a lot of money. But you should write well.

You have to invest in the right places where you can really help the private sector, such as R & D and infrastructure expansion.

And in the long run, it's time for more breakthroughs to be more productive and really more efficient regulatory reform.

<Anchor>

Most of all, I wonder if we need a policy that can change the atmosphere of the private sector.