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Jana Jabbour, political scientist, Sciences Po teacher and Turkey specialist, decrypts for RFI the offensive launched Wednesday by Turkey in Syria. Named "source of peace", this military operation targets Kurdish forces based in northeastern Syria. The Kurds of the People's Protection Units (YPG) are considered "terrorists" by Ankara who wants to establish a "security zone" at the border. Recep Tayyeb Erdogan took advantage of the US withdrawal of several observation posts to launch his troops to the assault.
RFI: This is not the first time Turkey has confronted Kurdish forces in northern Syria. We remember the operation " Shield of the Euphrates " in 2016 and the so-called " olive branch " in 2018, which resulted in the loss of Afrin for the Kurds in favor of Ankara. But these previous offensives had remained limited. Today, what is the balance of power on the ground ?
Jana Jabbour: Today, for the first time since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, the Kurds, and especially the People's Protection Units (YPG) fighters, are in fact deprived of military and air support from the US administration. This bail and support previously granted by the United States was crucial for Kurdish fighters in their balance of power with Turkey. Today, deprived of armaments and air support, the balance of power is clearly against them.
On the other hand, what could work against Turkey is that Kurdish fighters can use the map of the Islamic State. Today, Kurdish fighters hold about 10,000 fighters in the organization. If they decide to release them, that would represent a real threat of national security for Turkey. These jihadist fighters today defend very anti-Ankara and antiturist positions. They could certainly carry out attacks inside Turkish territory if they found freedom.
Turkish forces attacked the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on a 450-kilometer front. They carried out bombings of Kobane in Derik (Al-Malikiyah). What are the territorial ambitions of Turkey?
At first, during this military offensive , Turkey wants to secure the largest number of villages in northern Syria to create a "safe area" vis-à-vis the Kurds. They then wish to retire fairly quickly. But Turkey is mainly trying to establish an area as large as possible at the border to resettle Syrian refugees living in Turkey today.
In addition to wanting to reduce the strike force of Kurdish fighters, it must be stressed that one of the primary motivations of this military offensive is also to please the Turkish public opinion which is exasperated by the massive presence of Syrian refugees in their country. Thus, thanks to this offensive, Erdogan and the Turkish army can show the public that they react and take into consideration his points of view. Their objective ? Show that they are ready to do anything to settle this refugee issue.
So far, Ankara's forces have penetrated Kurdish territories in the localities of Ras el-Ain and Tall Abyad. According to NGOs, already more than 60,000 people have been displaced by the offensives. For their part, the Kurds say they hold good and respond blow to Turkey. How far will Turkish forces go on the ground ?
The more the Turkish forces advance, the more difficult their progress will be. After a while, Russia and Iran will take a much more radical stance on this military offensive. Tehran and Moscow want Turkey to end this offensive as soon as possible. Russia and Iran do not wish to compromise their relationship with Damascus.
Above all, in my opinion, Ankara's objective is not to maintain a presence on the ground after this offensive. Such a long-term presence would be too much like a military occupation. It would initially be very expensive for the Turkish economy. Especially in a context of economic recession, while there is very little foreign investment today in Turkey. But a prolonged Turkish glacis in this region would also be very expensive politically and diplomatically, given the discontent of Moscow and Tehran. Finally, this offensive should not last more than a month.
Interview by Eliott Brachet