This is reported by "Izvestia" with reference to the materials for the draft treasury for 2020-2022.
According to the department’s calculations, in the year when oil prices fall to $ 10 per barrel, the treasury will receive less than 5% of GDP in the form of revenues from the sale of energy resources.
The ministry also calculated that if the price of Russian Urals oil falls to $ 10 per barrel and remains at that level for 10 years, then under this scenario, the treasury will receive less than 70% of annual GDP from the sale of energy resources.
It is noted that such a fall in prices is considered as the most radical scenario. According to the Ministry of Finance, the closest option to the budget stress to reality is a drop in oil prices to $ 40 per barrel. With such indicators, public finances will not suffer and the damage from such a collapse in the oil markets for treasury income will be zero.
Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Energy of Russia, Alexander Novak, said that in 2019 the growth in world oil demand could reach a minimum level over the past seven years. The Minister explained this forecast to the slowdown in the global economy. The main risk factors were US trade wars with China and Europe. At the same time, the situation on the oil market is far from crisis. The stability of the energy sector is supported by the efforts of the countries participating in the OPEC + agreement.
On September 30, a leading expert at the Institute for Contemporary Development, economist Nikita Maslennikov, in an interview with URA.RU, assessed the prospects for oil prices.