In Russia, starting from October 1, when issuing a loan in the amount of more than 10 thousand rubles, banks will be required to calculate the debt burden indicator (PDN) - the ratio of monthly loan payments to the average citizen income.
Now, the higher the value of PDN, the more risky for the bank is the issue of funds. If payments on outstanding loans make up more than half of the average Russian income (personal income exceeds 50%), then a new loan will be issued at a higher rate and will cost the client more. This conclusion follows from the materials of the Central Bank.
For the first time, the Central Bank’s intention to introduce PDN was announced in June by the head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. According to her, the use of the indicator will limit the growth of borrowing of citizens.
At RT's request, economists and market experts evaluated the new lending rules. So, the head of the laboratory of the Institute of Applied Economic Research, RANEPA Alexander Abramov believes that PDN is introduced primarily for a real assessment of the solvency of the borrower.
“It is important to understand what indicator of the ratio of payments and income will be the norm through which it is impossible to cross. In many countries, it is 30%. In Russia, it makes up 50%, but it is possible that it can make up 60%, ”Abramov said.
The economist also believes that PDN for banks may be a limitation, since credit institutions and without it took into account the income of the citizen when deciding on the issue of funds.
In turn, the head of the analytical department of Veles Capital investment company Ivan Manaenko claims that the introduction of PDN will primarily affect the work of small banks.
“Perhaps this will not appeal to small organizations that are deliberately trying to increase margins when issuing loans due to the fact that people get fines and higher rates. A separate loan base is needed so that citizens can not take more than they can service so that loans are not repaid at the expense of funds received from other banks - that is, in fact trying to refinance in two places, ”said Manaenko.
With the introduction of PDN, the Central Bank first of all wants to cool the consumer lending market. It is possible that in the future lending will grow at a slow pace. This point of view is shared by Anton Tabah, chief economist at Expert RA.
“The process of issuing loans will go at a slower pace, as banks will rely more on scoring — credit rating and less on formal documentation,” Tabah said.
“At the moment, Russians owe more than 15 trillion rubles to banks, and this figure is constantly growing. Many borrowers, failing to repay the loan on time, took new loans to pay the first one and fell into credit bondage, giving up to 60% of the family budget. Today in Russia, about a third of borrowers have two or more loans, ”said Dmitry Alexandrov, chief strategist at UNIVER Capital.
The analyst added that PDN will help banks “weed out” borrowers who spend most of their salaries on monthly payments. For this reason, the specialist associates the September high activity of banks offering loans to Russians for various purchases.
“Now banks will be more sensitive to the client when checking his documents and individual credit rating. The fact is that the higher the total cost of the loan and the client’s personal data, the more funds the bank must freeze on its accounts as a reserve. It becomes unprofitable for financial organizations to give loans to troubled borrowers, so loans may become more expensive. But, it is worth noting that it will be insignificant, since the key rate of the Central Bank is regularly reduced, ”concluded Alexandrov.
According to the latest data from the Central Bank, in July the average maximum rate on consumer loans in rubles amounted to 13.03% per annum, and taking into account car loans - 14%. At the same time, the average mortgage rate reached 10.24% per annum.
In general, from January to August 2019, the average size of issued consumer loans in Russia amounted to 180.4 thousand rubles. For car loans, the indicator amounted to 767.2 thousand. This is stated in the materials of the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBCH).