The Bank of Spain does not believe any of the nine main official forecasts of the Government for the Spanish economy and that the acting Minister of Economy, Nadia Calviño , says they are "prudent." The so-called Macroeconomic Projections presented by the CEO Oscar Arce amend and are more pessimistic than the Government in nothing less than the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product, household consumption, public consumption, gross fixed capital formation, exports, imports, job creation, unemployment rate and deficit.

It is impressive that just weeks after Calviño announced an upward revision of GDP growth, considering that its forecast for this year of 2.2% had fallen short, the Bank of Spain maintains that on the contrary, it went from optimistic and 2% discount. The head of Economy even declared last day 5 that she was betting on keeping up with the 2% rate in 2020, where Arce does not see beyond 1.7%.

It also draws attention to the fact that while the acting Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero , still bets that the State will be able to reduce the deficit to the already softened objective of 2%, the supervisory body believes that it will decrease at most to 2.4%.

But the hardest fact is that the slowdown is going to assume that the unemployment rate will fall to 14.1% this year when the acting Minister of Labor, Magdalena Valerio , opted to improve that barrier and reach 13.8%. In the projections of the Bank of Spain it hurts to see how, hopefully, the unemployment rate in 2021 will fall to a maximum of 12.8%, which is equivalent to that suffered at the beginning of the crisis in 2008 and still far from the 8.5% reached in 2007. Thirteen years therefore to reach a level that will continue to double the European average - currently 6.3%, according to Eurostat - and that shows that job creation will grow below the economy . This is projected by the considered best study service in the country that shows a huge Spanish failure to take advantage of the years of recovery and intense growth to correct one of the great imbalances of the Spanish economy. Of the 16.5% unemployment rate registered in 2017 in Spain, the aforementioned 12.8% will be passed in four years in a desperate rhythm that contrasts with the practical disappearance of job creation as the main theme of the upcoming election campaign .

The aforementioned prediction by the Bank of Spain on the public deficit that will have gone from 2.6% of the Gross Domestic Product in 2018 to 2.4% in 2019 is also hard. That is, a year lost in the reorganization of public accounts that , according to Arce, it is a worrying weakness if there is a return to the recession that did not completely rule out. The Bank of Spain complains about how political instability makes the parties particularly hide their budget program . «A high degree of uncertainty persists about the future orientation of economic policies and the adoption of measures that allow the Spanish economy to increase its resilience in the face of a possible worsening of the macro-financial context». The case of Pedro Sánchez , author of the Resistance Manual , which must still write his plan to improve the resistance of the Spanish economy and more in deceleration, stands out.

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  • Pedro Sanchez
  • GDP
  • Nadia Calviño
  • Maria Jesus Montero
  • Magdalena Valerio
  • Spain

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