Tensions Iran / US: diplomatic efforts without results

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Diplomatic relations between US President Donald Trump (at g) and Iranian President Hassan Rohani (at d) have stalled. HO, NICHOLAS KAMM / AFP / IRANIAN PRESIDENCY

For several weeks, international diplomacy has been active to avoid the conflagration between Tehran and Washington with this hope: a meeting between the two leaders Donald Trump and Hassan Rohani at the 74th UN General Assembly, which is being held this week. New York.

" Iran is the godfather of global terrorism ," said Donald Trump when he spoke at the UN platform on Tuesday (September 24th). Iranian President Hassan Rohani is expected to speak on Wednesday.

Admittedly, the country of the mullahs is weakened economically because of US sanctions, but in the balance of power between Iran and the United States, Tehran stands up.

Iran, an international power ?

" What did Iran want to do, if it is indeed Iran through the Houthi arm (Yemeni rebels backed by Tehran, Ed), by attacking the two Saudi oil installations ? Wonders Amélie Chelly, associate researcher at CADIS (EHESS-CNRS).

" Iran wanted to show that it was a regional power even international. This is a way of saying to Saudi Arabia: despite the unwavering support of your American ally, from an economic point of view as well as from a military and security point of view, your army is vulnerable, "he added. author of Iran, autopsy of political Shiism .

Amelie Chelly goes on to conclude: " Iran has also wanted to show the United States its strike force and at the same time send a message to the Europeans to signify that their will to maintain the agreements is far too weak . "

Tehran " plays the card of provocation "

" The United States should know that they can not prevent the export of Iranian oil , " but "if they try (...), there will be no more oil to export since Persian Gulf, "threatened President Hassan Rohani.

Yet today nothing proves the involvement of Iranians in these attacks that have stopped 50% of the oil production of the Saudi kingdom. Faced with this, the White House is procrastinating. Every incident in the Gulf against oil installations or ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Donald Trump lets his anger on Twitter.

Iran's very ignorant and insulting statement, put out today, only shows that they do not understand reality. Any attack by Iran on anything will be great. In some areas, overwhelming will mean obliteration. No more John Kerry & Obama!

He accuses the Islamic Republic, waving the specter of war, but in fact the American president never takes action. " The US administration knows it can not afford a new one-year presidential conflict. On the strength of these observations, Iran is playing the provocation card and is doing so with relative success, "says expert Olivier Dorgans, an expert on the Iranian issue.

In this context, a handshake between Donald Trump and Hassan Rohani seems compromised.

Head-to-head and diplomatic negotiations

French President Emanuel Macron seems to believe it hard. " The conditions for a US-Iran negotiation are met, " said the French head of state, who met with his two counterparts Iran and the US separately. He hopes to reunite the two men in one room.

" The US administration is in dire need of diplomatic progress with Iran for electoral reasons. Donald Trump wants to show his electorate that he is better than his predecessor ", Olivier Dorgans analysis.

I have just instructed the Secretary of the Treasury to increase sanctions on the country of Iran!

" But the real difficulty in my opinion is rather at the level of the Iranian administration. President Hassan Rohani has to deal internally with ultraconservatives close to the body of the Revolutionary Guards and the Supreme Leader. And they do not necessarily want Iran back in the nuclear deal, "he said.

" The Iranians today feel in a position of strength and condition any return to the negotiating table to a lifting of US sanctions ," concludes the expert on economic sanctions and embargoes.

However, far from lifting their sanctions , the Americans have once again reinforced them following attacks on Saudi oil sites. In this context, and despite the intense diplomatic efforts deployed by Paris and several other capitals, a Trump-Rohani meeting is unlikely.