Only time will tell whether or not we are on the threshold of another great world recession. What is certain is that the fear of his arrival grows as this summer progresses and investors have been desperately seeking refuge for weeks. The world's most important economies are also taking positions , regardless of relying on the relief policies that central banks can adopt.
After the controversial stimulus package that the German Government has put on its table, China's maneuvers to confront its pulse with the United States with some slack, yesterday it transpired that Donald Trump also finalizes his own plan to encourage his internal demand and to cope better uncertainty.
In Spain , on the other hand, Government has not yet been formed.
USA STUDIES LOWER TAXES TO WORK
Although the American president does not tire of repeating that his economy is in a great way, recession drums also ring at his door.
Just yesterday, the vast majority of the panel of economists surveyed by the National Association of Business Economics (Nabe) considered the recession of the United States for sure in two years . And that thanks to the fact that they interpret that the Federal Reserve can, with its measures, delay the inevitable one year. And the White House is aware of that.
With the presidential elections just around the corner as he says - in November 2020 - Trump is willing to fan his internal economy to avoid facing the polls in a recession scenario. To this end, according to the US press, a battery of stimuli has been finalized, including a large drop in taxes for workers to increase their purchasing power and increase domestic consumption. Also tariffs on China, according to The Washington Post, could be revised in a context of crisis.
GERMANY, WILLING TO ENTER THE AUSTERITY
Who would have said just a few years ago that a government chaired by Angela Merkel would open the door to stimulate its economy by doping public spending and pulling debt. But the day has arrived.
After the contraction of the 0.1% recorded by its GDP in the second quarter of the year and the little promising forecasts for the following -the real risk of recession proclaimed by the Bundesbank on Monday was followed yesterday by the Deutsche Bank study service- The Merkel Executive is willing, as announced by its head of Finance Olaf Scholz, to inject 50,000 million - which they estimate cost them the crisis of 2008 - of public spending, charged to the debt.
The possibility of the German Government abandoning the orthodoxy of the budget balance has surprised economists and investors, but also a certain part of the Berlin Government, which does not yet have them all. The slowdown of its economy, however, with an industrial activity in full contraction and exports in free fall due to international tensions is so evident that Merkel is willing to move away at all costs the phantom of the European locomotive crisis.
CHINA REVOLVES ITS INTERNAL CONSUMPTION
The bad data of the Chinese second quarter, with the lowest growth since 1992, has already led the Beijing Executive to accelerate its stimuli to avoid sending signs of weakness to the world.
It has ambitious infrastructure projects underway, has enabled aid to reactivate the sales of its car factories and has also approved several tax reduction packages .
Now, in full escalation in its commercial tension with the US, the Asian giant has decided to further intensify the stimulus of its internal economy, so that it compensates for the drop in sales abroad. The People's Bank of China announced changes on Monday that will allow more credit to be circulated for its businesses and families.
SPAIN CLAIMS ITS GROWTH RATE
Our country is in an impasse situation in the midst of this international storm. Two other important threats for Spanish companies have now joined the Brexit and the commercial war between the US and China: the open crisis in Italy, our main partner in the Mediterranean, and the possible return of Peronism to Argentina, where our companies have invested more than 5,750 million.
The growth of Spanish GDP remains above the European average and the acting Government has already announced that, despite the threats, it will raise its forecast for this year.
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