News pressure: for the first time in six months, the US dollar exceeded 67 rubles

On Monday, August 19, the Russian currency weakened during trading on the Moscow Exchange. The dollar added 0.76% and for the first time since February exceeded 67 rubles. The euro rose by 0.9% - to 74.4 rubles. The last time a similar level could be observed on March 11.

The official exchange rate of the Central Bank on August 20 amounted to 66.6 rubles per dollar and 73.94 rubles per euro.

According to RT analysts surveyed, the national currency was influenced by several external factors. Thus, the recent intensification of the trade war between the United States and China provoked a collapse in the global stock market and intensified investor concerns about the possible onset of a new global recession. Against this background, since the beginning of August, players began to withdraw funds from risky assets of developing countries.

Moreover, as Peter Pushkaryov, chief analyst of TeleTrade Group of Companies, noted in an interview with RT, in addition to the global sale of shares, a new round of the tariff war between Beijing and Washington provoked a sharp drop in oil prices. According to the ICE exchange in London, to date, the raw materials of the Brent benchmark are trading near $ 59 per barrel. At the same time, at the end of July, the figure was about $ 65.

According to analysts, an additional pressure on the Russian currency was exerted by the aggravation of the sanctions agenda. In early August, the US State Department officially confirmed the introduction of a second package of measures against Russia in the Skripals case.

Washington is expected to oppose the provision of loans, financial or technical assistance to Moscow by international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. In addition, US banks will be prohibited from participating in the primary market for non-ruble bonds of Russian sovereign debt and providing non-ruble loans to the Russian government.

According to an official statement from the U.S. Treasury Department, restrictive measures will take effect on August 26. However, analysts do not expect a sharp weakening of the ruble. So, the new sanctions apply only to the purchase of Russian Eurobonds - debt securities denominated in foreign currency. While the main instrument of the financial authorities of Russia to raise funds from abroad remains the ruble bonds of the federal loan (OFZ).

“The second package in the Skripals case turned out to be extremely formal, essentially empty - Russia has not occupied the IMF or the EBRD for a long time, it hardly needs to place Eurobonds, gaining the bulk of the debt in rubles, and American banks do not need us to place these loans. At the same time, reports of sanctions and the simultaneous appearance in the news bulletins of a large number of materials about the impending recession of the world economy caused a negative reaction of investors in the country's foreign exchange market, ”Pushkaryov explained.

Experts interviewed by RT do not exclude in the future the possible introduction of restrictions on the purchase of OFZs by the US authorities, but at the same time they speak of a low likelihood of such a development. So, back in 2018, the US Ministry of Finance officially announced that measures against Russian federal loan bonds would destabilize financial markets and damage the relations between the two countries.

Moreover, it is expected that the accumulated volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves will mitigate the risks regarding restrictions against the state debt of Russia. About this in an interview with RT told the expert of the Academy of Finance and Investment Management Gennady Nikolaev.

“Russia's external debt does not exceed 15% of GDP, and its foreign exchange reserves cover it with a substantial reserve. Thus, at the moment there is no reason for serious concern, ”the analyst explained.

According to Nikolaev, at the moment, the ruble should be supported by the tax period that has begun. At this time, exporting companies traditionally sell foreign currency and buy rubles to pay taxes.

In addition, as explained in an interview with RT, QBF lead analyst Oleg Bogdanov, against the backdrop of the continuing difference between interest rates in Russia and the United States, the ruble remains attractive to investors in terms of carry trade operations. Such a financial strategy involves the acquisition of the currency of the state in which low interest rates are established, with the subsequent investment of this money in the currency of countries with high interest rates to obtain greater profit.

Against this background, according to the assessment of Gennady Nikolaev, the Russian currency can still grow to 66.5 rubles per dollar and 73.7 rubles per euro.