Every morning, Nicolas Barré takes stock of a current economic issue.
The French have morale: in any case what shows the latest INSEE survey that scrutinizes the moods of our compatriots.
Yes the French regain their morale. How do we know? Because the INSEE questions the French for example on their intentions to make important purchases, on how they see their future financial situation, on their ability to save: does it increase or not. And with all these batteries of statistics, we can see if the French have morale that flank or if on the contrary they see things in pink. And there, what shows the latest INSEE survey, is that the confidence of French households today is slightly higher than the long-term average. Last year, with the increase of the CSG and taxes on gasoline, the French had a serious blow of slack. And today, all of this is behind us.
Morale has returned, but is it solid?
First, there is no secret, when you inject 11 billion euros into the economy - these are the measures "yellow vests" - it shows. On the other hand, the abolition of the housing tax and certain social security contributions had a direct effect on purchasing power. We see it in the figures: according to INSEE, purchasing power will grow by 2.3% this year, it is a clear acceleration. We can add that households that are considering large purchases, a car, even a home, are encouraged by the fact that interest rates are very low, that's good for morale. And all this creates a virtuous circle effect: consumption is 70% of our economy. So it's better for consumers to have morale.
But we also know that morale can turn around very quickly.
It is true. But there are elements of support that should persist in the coming months. We are on a good pace of job creation: 200,000 planned in the private sector this year. And several tax cuts are still in the pipes, following the abolition of the housing tax and lower income tax. These elements will compensate for the degradation that is observed beyond our borders. It should also be noted that the morale of business leaders is increasing, which is also a good sign for employment. The economy works a lot with confidence. The crisis of yellow vests had sealed the climate. Today, this page is very widely shot.