Unwilling to fulfill the conditions of the Minsk agreements and not having the courage to honestly admit their unwillingness to fulfill them, the Ukrainian authorities are forced to engage in political yoga, spinning themselves and spinning their aspirations into incredibly complex poses and forms. It would seem that it’s much easier: to hold elections in the Donbass, to enshrine in the Constitution and grant special status to Donetsk and Lugansk and, starting from the result, sit at the negotiating table and agree on how to live on.
However, as soon as this happens, the radical part of Ukrainian society will immediately accuse Zelensky of treason and surrender of national interests. Moreover, it is clear that the residents of LDNR do not need this special status as part of Ukraine either. Road spoon for dinner. The topic was relevant in 2014. Today, after five years, during which Ukraine has methodically done everything to completely ward off the Donbass, no one is ready to return to the “warm” embrace. Residents of the republics see their future either as independent entities or as part of Russia. And the third in this case is not given.
In Kiev, everyone perfectly understands this. But no one can not just take and let go, or return the Donbass by force, but also does not want to. Because, having cut this Gordian knot with one blow, the Ukrainian authorities will immediately fall under the blow of the sword of Damocles hanging over it, which will finally kill the already flimsy Ukrainian statehood.
So you have to spin and twist, coming up with some new formats and trying to involve as many external players as possible in solving the purely internal issue.
Therefore, the assistant to the president of Ukraine Andriy Yermak blurted out about the signing of some new international treaty, supposedly called to protect the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine. There is a suspicion that this idea is a pure impromptu that was born in the course of the interview, because the wording is too funny and primitive. If this issue had been discussed at least a little earlier, the presentation of such a serious proposal would have been more significant.
“We have an idea, which now sounds in different negotiations, so that the settlement of the situation ends with the signing of a large-scale international treaty, in which all the largest players would take part ... who would fix for years, and better for centuries, our sovereignty, territorial integrity "," Said Yermak, noting that he mentions this for the first time.
Well, OK. Suppose Ukraine succeeds in writing some kind of tsidul in which articles from the Constitution will be written. What's next? What guarantees do they expect from their international partners? What else, besides publicly condemning Russia and new sanctions, do they want to encourage those whom they want to make a guarantor of their sovereignty and territorial integrity? For military action? But no one, being in their right mind, will subscribe to this today. Especially for the sake of Ukraine. Unleash the third world (namely, it implies the presence among the declared signatories of the United States and China) for the bankrupt country, which already for the sixth year has been one of the main causes of headaches in Europe, no one wants to.
Moreover, it is obvious that, first of all, this agreement will have a clear anti-Russian character and, as a result, will once again complicate the already not cloudless relations with Moscow.
Moreover, the specific ultimate goal of this treaty is completely unclear. Not this streamlined about sovereignty and territorial integrity, but a clear statement of their aspirations. What does Ukraine want from the West? Military campaign to return the Crimea and Donbass? Or just international pressure, eternal condemnation and endless sanctions? How should China itself ensure Ukraine the inviolability of its borders and what actions are expected from the UK if Hungary or Poland themselves suddenly launch a campaign to return their territories?
As a result, at the moment, it is clear only that nothing is clear.
But with the prospect of centuries, yes! And this is declared to us by a country that does not have a clear plan for the next five years. But what is there - no one really can speak out about the prospects for the year. But the plans are huge, and they are all Napoleonic.
But that's not all. This most notorious treaty is such a simplified form of unofficial membership in NATO, in which no one is going to take Ukraine as a full member. And everyone in Kiev has already come to terms with this idea, except perhaps Poroshenko, who, with manic persistence, continues to promote the absolutely populist idea of the need to join the alliance.
Therefore, even if we hypothetically allow the probability of signing the agreement proposed by Ukraine, there is no certainty that it will give the desired result.
“The plan, of course, was excellent; simple and clear, it’s better not to come up with. He had only one drawback: it was completely unknown how to enforce it. ”
In the bottom line, it turns out that Ukraine is ready to throw all its efforts into creating some kind of arch-complicated hyperloop, the effectiveness of which is highly doubtful, defiantly neglecting the bicycle it already has at its disposal. In principle, this is a common practice of the local authorities. However, all attempts to circumvent the implementation of the Minsk agreements result in reports of losses that continue to be borne by both sides of the armed conflict. And there is only one way to stop it. Just stop shooting. But, as has already been said repeatedly, Zelensky cannot afford such a thing. As well as he cannot enter into direct negotiations with the leadership of the republics, without attracting any new international arbitrators.
So you have to mask your weakness, bankruptcy and fear under some beautiful and ambitious words, but completely unrealizable in the current reality scenarios, thereby confirming that ending the war today is not a priority goal for Ukraine.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.