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Statistics that increase suspicion of size of Levante-Zaragoza

2019-08-29T20:41:27.407Z

The Professional Football League (LFP) presented a statistical report in the Instruction Court number 7 of Valencia a few weeks ago in which, for the first time, it points



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The Professional Football League (LFP) presented a statistical report in the Instruction Court number 7 of Valencia a few weeks ago in which, for the first time, it points to specific data in the famous Levante-Zaragoza match of 2011. The The trial for the alleged purchase of the clash by the Aragonese team will begin on Tuesday in Valencia, and will sit on the bench 42 accused of an alleged crime of sports fraud . For them, the Prosecutor's Office asks for two years' imprisonment and six disqualification sentences for any activity related to football, while the League requests the maximum set forth in the Penal Code: four years.

The «Technical Report on Game Data Analysis of Levante-Zaragoza», prepared by the Department of Business Intelligence & Analytics of La Liga, collects, analyzes and compares the data of this duel with those obtained by both teams that season and, also , with matches played since 2006 "of the same nature", that is: with the permanence at stake for the visitor on the last day against an opponent without goals. The conclusion is clear: there were too many "and deeper abnormalities" than in other parties in similar circumstances, and cannot be attributed to chance.

The analysis of the League justifies its suspicions in three aspects: shots on goal, corner kicks and goalkeeper stops. With these statistics, Levante made that May 21, 2011 against Zaragoza their worst home game of the whole season . Neither attacked nor defended with intensity, although he had only lost six games of the 19 played in the Ciutat.

The team that Juan Ignacio Martínez directed then did not look for goal: three shots on goal, of which two were between the three suits and one became Stuani's goal. Only in the Real Madrid visit (0-0) had he tried the rival goal less. In 11 of the 19 home games he had exceeded that figure. In corner kicks in favor, the data does not improve: he only took one, when in more than half of the matches in his stadium he reached half a dozen.

In defense, statistics also contributes to suspicion. Zaragoza was able to generate 20 occasions , of which 10 were among the three suits. Real Madrid, who shot 26 times during his visit to Ciutat (six more than Zaragoza) barely managed to get them to door six (four less). The whole team, who wandered through the bottom of the standings all season, was the best attacker who passed through Orriols and the one that caused the most interventions from Munúa, who made eight stops and saw how 12 corners were thrown at him. With these data, the La Liga report concludes that Levante did less to fight the victory in this match than in the average of those played at home.

The case of Zaragoza is just the opposite: their statistics shine in this last game, in which only victory gave them continuity in First and sent Deportivo to Second. Javier Aguirre's team won three of the 19 matches as a visitor that season: in the Bernabéu (2-3), La Rosaleda (1-2) and in the Ciutat. In the last breath of the championship he found the balance: he maximized his chances and closed the defense to the point that both Levante (in minute 79) and an intervention of Leo Franco were the only gaps. Gabi had already put the score in favor with two goals in minutes 38 and 73.

What was experienced in the stadium as a victory as a result of the need for some and the relaxation of others for having achieved the goal a week before, the graphics of the technical report that has reached the court put it in question. In the comparison with «matches of the same nature» , the analysis of the behavior on the turf coincides only 27% in the case of Levante and 32% in that of Zaragoza with the average of the whole season. For example, in Barça-Deportivo in the 14/15 campaign, with the Barça champion and Galician at risk of relegation, Barça's data coincides with 93% of their statistics at home that year.

There is an anomaly detector with which the competition is monitored, and is done through an algorithm called Isolation Forest . Well, according to that algorithm, the match is "the most anomalous for both teams" of the 13 "identical nature" analyzed. With this report, the League intends to convince the judge, who already argued in her file file - later revoked by the Provincial Court - that "passive or suspicious behaviors" were not detected.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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