Typhoon No. 19 “I'm OK” Beware of normality bias! Oct. 9 18:10
A large and fierce typhoon No. 19 is expected to approach West Japan from Northern Japan from Saturday 12th to Sunday 13th. The Japan Meteorological Agency is calling for early countermeasures, but experts point out that “the psychological state that I am ok could be a dangerous“ normality bias ”in the event of a disaster,” calling for attention.
“Normality bias” is a function of the mind that is necessary to live by thinking of “this is within the normal range” when something abnormal happens, and trying to keep the mind calm. It has been pointed out that there is a risk that evacuation will be delayed, resulting in underestimating the danger in the event of a disaster.
This “normality bias” has been shown to be a psychological state that was also seen in the evacuation behavior of the victims due to the heavy rain in western Japan that occurred in July last year.
NHK surveyed 310 disaster victims in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures a month before the disaster occurred, saying, “What was the first trigger for evacuation? I asked.
While 33.5% of respondents answered “deterioration of the surrounding environment” such as inundation, river flooding, and earth and sand disasters in the surrounding area, “Disaster prevention radio” was 7.4% and “TV and radio” was 4.5 It was found that there were many who did not decide to evacuate until the actual danger was imminent.
Hirotada Hirose, an emeritus professor at Tokyo Women's University who specializes in disaster risk, says, “Unlike earthquakes where disasters occur and damages occur almost simultaneously, floods take time before they occur. “Bias is more intense, but I think it ’s a prominent result.”
On top of that, “The typhoon No. 15 of the other day has been causing floods and landslides every year in various parts of the country. `` There is a side that is creating a new bias that `` It's okay because no disaster has happened here '', '' we pointed out that the sense of `` accustomed '' has the danger of causing new damage .
The Japan Meteorological Agency said at the conference on the afternoon of the 9th that “There is a risk of high waves, heavy rain, and high tides in some areas. I want you to be prepared for a storm by 11th. We are calling for stockpiling to prepare for, and reviewing the schedule to refrain from unnecessarily going out.