Volodymyr Zelensky once again put pressure on the United States, Sunday April 7, to authorize the expected North American military aid of 60 billion dollars, blocked in Congress by supporters of Donald Trump. Without it, the Ukrainian president fears that his country will not hold out in the face of a probable offensive on a Russian scale.

But it is not only Western support that is a source of concern on the Ukrainian side. kyiv is also engaged in a race against time to establish defensive lines worthy of the name in anticipation of an intensification of Russian attacks expected "at the end of May, beginning of June", affirmed Volodymyr Zelensky during an interview with the channel American CBS at the end of March.

Lessons from Adviika

The extent of the problem became apparent during the battle of Avdviika which ended in mid-February with the fall of this town located just north of Donetsk. After this Ukrainian defeat, kyiv first wanted to be reassuring by ensuring that it had a sufficient line of defense to prevent any Russian attempts to continue their progress. But “the Russians then captured three villages in the surrounding area in less than a week,” pointed out the New York Times, in an article devoted to the Ukrainian defensive effort published on March 2.

In this investigation, the New York daily then noted the "rudimentary" side of the Ukrainian defensive fortifications. An observation that he is not the only one to have made: for its part, the CNN channel cited “anonymous Ukrainian military sources” deploring “the unpreparedness of Ukrainian defenses”.

However, "the defensive lines around Adviika were supposed to be in better condition than other places on the front line," said Huseyn Aliyev, a specialist in the war in Ukraine at the University of Glasgow, Scotland. They were, in fact, established based on fortifications already built in 2014, during fighting between the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian forces in the separatist region of Donetsk.

Read alsoTwo years after the Russian invasion, the Ukrainian army reviews its strategy

The Ukrainian government began making a strong defensive line a top priority in November 2023. Volodymyr Zelensky repeated this in December and the government then set an ambitious goal: establishing a system of fortifications over 2,000 kilometers, which would have nothing to envy of the famous Russian Surovikin defense line.

This is the defense-in-depth system that Russia managed to establish in six months between October 2022 and March 2023, over more than 800 kilometers. Made of bunkers, "dragons' teeth" - a sort of concrete cone placed on the ground to slow down the advance of tanks -, minefields and trenches, this structure had considerably slowed down the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring. 2023.

Sourovikine Line: mission impossible?

“kyiv does not want to refer directly to a Russian work and “refuses to talk about the Ukrainian-style Surovikin line, but the army is clearly inspired by it,” says Huseyn Aliyev. “The Ukrainians hope to build their own defense system - with mines, 'dragon's teeth', bunkers - which could slow down the advance of the tanks and exhaust the Russian forces during the coming offensive", adds Will Cox, specialist on the war in Ukraine for Europinion, a platform for reflection on security and geopolitical issues in Europe.

Except that “what has been built is not comparable at all to the Surovikin line,” assures Glen Grant, a senior analyst at the Baltic Security Foundation and specialist in Russian military issues. “It is done in the same spirit, but the result is much less elaborate and does not provide defense in depth for the moment,” specifies Jeff Hawn, Russia specialist at the London School of Economics.

Because the obstacles to this Ukrainian-style Sourovikine line are multiple. Starting with the context. "Russia was able to concentrate on their fortifications for six months without having any particular military pressure from the Ukrainians [who were preparing their counter-offensive, Editor's note]", underlines Glen Grant.

Also read: Ukraine: the 800 km Russian defense line, a military anachronism?

The Ukrainians are, for their part, obliged "to erect their defensive positions around twenty kilometers from the front line to avoid being bombarded during construction", notes Huseyn Aliyev. It is therefore “more accurate to speak of a fallback line rather than a defensive line”, underlines Glen Grant.

Efforts to install fortifications are also concentrated "around cities and regions which can be attacked from several directions [such as Zaporizhia or Koupiansk, Editor's note]", specifies Jeff Hawn.

The Ukrainians have also fallen far behind. "They certainly started talking about it in November, but the work only started in January. That is to say, they started digging trenches when the ground was the most frozen, which which was not optimal,” assures Huseyn Aliyev.

"There was clearly a political mistake. The Ukrainian government should have started building these defenses from the moment the United States started dragging its feet on sending money to Ukraine [from 'October 2023]", underlines Glen Grant.

Genius, are you there?

Russia was also able to rely on engineering units to accelerate and supervise the construction of the Surovikin line. This is not the case for Ukraine. “There is a clear lack of specialized manpower in the army, so it has had to rely on private companies to provide equipment and workers,” notes Huseyn Aliyev.

From then on, the construction of a Ukrainian-style Sourovikin line opened an administrative Pandora's box. “We must obtain specific authorizations for this type of contract and also convince the selected companies to send a civilian workforce to carry out construction in areas close to the front line,” summarizes Huseyn Aliyev.

But kyiv has no choice. “For the moment, the Ukrainian army is slowing down the Russian advance mainly thanks to drones. But faced with artillery fire, more defensive shelters will necessarily be needed for the soldiers,” says Glen Grant. “Even if Ukraine is behind on its fortification program, it must get on with it because otherwise it is an admission of defeat,” agrees Will Cox.

Even if it uses all possible means, kyiv "should not be able to achieve its objective of having fortifications over 2,000 km by the beginning of June", fears Huseyn Aliyev. Which does not mean that it is a foregone conclusion for Moscow. The main thing for kyiv, according to the experts interviewed by France 24, is to have a defensive system capable of holding out until the United States releases the promised aid. For the moment, trenches, bunkers and "dragon's teeth" represent the best way to compensate for this lack of ammunition on the Ukrainian side.

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