Experts believe that European leaders are convinced that Kiev's victory in the war will determine the future of the entire continent (Al Jazeera)
PARIS -
The idea of creating a European army or the "Pleven Plevin" has not disappeared since it was first proposed in the 1950s by then French Prime Minister Rene Pleven, but this project was not completed due to the refusal of the French National Assembly to ratify it.
After more than half a century, European countries fell into a state of complacency and military laziness after the Cold War, believing that if they were exposed to any attack, the United States would rush to their aid.
But the threat of former US President and the most likely candidate to win, Donald Trump, not to defend NATO countries during his presidency if member states failed to fulfill their financial obligations, forced the Europeans to search for answers to many questions, the most important of which is whether European armies are ready and capable. To defend herself and alone?
Maria Ciollan believes that the Ukrainian war demonstrated the importance of the defense industry and the rapid production of weapons required on the battlefield (Al Jazeera)
Peace Island
After years of lax defense spending, a sudden wake-up call came from Russia in a war that is still raging today in Ukraine, and paved the way for a new reality facing the European continent: Europe is no longer safe.
Ionella Maria Ciollan, head of foreign policy, security and defense policy research at the Wilfried Martens Center for European Studies, says that over the past three decades, a “peace island” mentality has prevailed in Europe, where there are no serious traditional threats to its security.
She added in her interview with Al Jazeera Net that the Ukrainian war demonstrated the importance of the defense industry and the rapid production of weapons that are badly needed on the battlefield such as ammunition, “however, the European industry in this field is lagging behind. In addition to the slow pace of defense procurement, there are still gaps in strategic capabilities ( Air transportation, intelligence sharing, communications and coordination).”
In theory, the idea of unifying forces seems attractive, as the presence of a joint military establishment would contribute to the creation of huge economies and eliminate bureaucratic inefficiencies, as well as impose a kind of credibility in deterrence and effectiveness on the battlefield.
But the director of the Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS), Daniel Gross, reads the scene differently, as he considers that NATO was nothing more than an “obsolete organization” and outdated, because the differences between its members were limited to common procedures and policies before. The Ukrainian war will come, and it will finally be dusted off so that it can play its primary defensive role.
Regarding the differences between some European countries, Gross assured Al Jazeera Net that this matter has not weakened their union so far, and has not kept them away from the plan and the common path to provide support to Kiev, pointing out that "the Russian threat is a military problem, and it will not be overcome politically."
Impossible equation
At a time when there is a lot of talk about military spending by NATO countries, the official at the Belgian center explained that the gross domestic product of the European countries in the alliance is almost equivalent to the United States combined, and that to defend the European continent in this insecure world, the political leadership will have to invest more than $2. % for defense.
Ciollan stressed that describing European armies as “worthless” in the absence of NATO oversimplifies the complex landscape of European security, because the alliance constitutes a vital element in the European security architecture, and there is no doubt that its absence will have a major impact on European defense and security, noting that Strengthening European deterrence will in turn strengthen the European pillar of the alliance against any potential Russian attack, especially since 23 members (out of 32) are from the European Union.
According to the Power Index, Russia has the strongest armies in Europe in the 2023 classification, followed by the United Kingdom as the second strongest European army, then France and Italy.
For his part, the director of the Center for European Policy Studies believes that reliance on the United States in defense matters represents Europe's DNA "because this continent was not born to defend itself, but rather to prevent war between its countries and resolve disputes between its governments."
He continued, "European countries can guarantee their security in only one case, which is when they become alone and without help for 4 years of Trump's presidency, because that will give them enough time to build a reliable European defense."
After global attention was focused on the details of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation carried out by Hamas against Israel and its consequences, the Ukrainian war once again returned to the forefront.
The difference between NATO members was limited to common procedures and policies before the Ukrainian war came and dusted it off (Al Jazeera)
A future at stake
Gross, who served as the European Union's economic advisor, reads this shift into European leaders' understanding that Kiev's victory will determine the future of the entire continent because "Europe's security depends on Ukraine's security." He also described what is happening in the Middle East as a "human and political drama" in which Europe played only a secondary role and with very little influence, in a clear indication of how important Ukraine is to it, he said.
In this context, the official at the Wilfried Martens Center for European Studies says, “Today we must prepare ourselves for an era of fierce geopolitical competition,” stressing that Russia “poses the main threat to the security of the European continent (not only on its eastern flank in Ukraine, but in its southern neighborhood, And in the Arctic region as well), as well as the possibility of growing Russian-Chinese cooperation posing risks to the European way of life.”
It seems clear that the upcoming US elections are increasingly preoccupying Western public opinion, because they will be decisive in preserving the West’s commitment and unity in supporting Ukraine and will put the effectiveness of the European armies to a difficult test.
This is why Ciulan considers that “the traditional European mentality that claims that the United States provides the security umbrella for the continent no longer constitutes any guarantee, and even in the best scenarios, Washington cannot be the protector of the entire world given the geopolitical landscape: the war in the Middle East, and the escalation of tensions between the White House and Tehran, and the increasing pressure on both sides of the Atlantic between China and Taiwan.”
Therefore, the Europeans' contribution of more resources to strengthen their armies and security and defense capabilities has become extremely important, as well as seriously thinking about developing a strong European Union defense policy capable of strengthening the European pillar on which NATO is based, according to the spokeswoman.
As for the German observer Gross, he finds that European countries building their own defenses away from America will not happen unless Trump assumes the presidency again and forces them to do so, adding, “I am completely convinced that if Germany is attacked, the United States will not lift a finger during his reign.”
Source: Al Jazeera