British Defense Minister Grant Shapps said that the world had entered a pre-war period. This thesis is contained in his article for The Daily Telegraph, dedicated to the 75th anniversary of the founding of NATO.

“Today we must again urgently think about the future of the alliance. We have moved from the post-war world order to the pre-war one,” he noted.

The minister is alarmed by the actions of Russia, China, Iran and the DPRK. “These malign powers are increasingly united, and our democracy is in their crosshairs,” Shapps writes.

Under these conditions, the head of the Ministry of Defense called on NATO countries to increase military spending, exceeding the current alliance norm of 2% of GDP.

“Ten years have passed since NATO allies agreed on 2%, and we must exceed this level to strengthen our defense. However, some countries still do not meet even the 2% target. This cannot go on any longer. We have no right to play Russian roulette with our future,” he said.

  • Grant Shapps

  • AP

  • © Kirsty Wigglesworth

In addition, Shapps called on the West to increase investment in the defense industry and significantly increase support for Ukraine.

Earlier, Foreign Minister David Cameron, speaking in Brussels at a conference on the future of NATO, also emphasized the need to support Ukraine. In his opinion, the West should not allow Russia to win the conflict, since otherwise NATO would allegedly face a bleak future, and the alliance’s ability to exercise collective self-defense would also be called into question.

“There is no pre-war situation in Europe”

It is worth noting that Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk previously called the current era pre-war. 

“The most alarming thing now is that literally any scenario is possible. We have not experienced such a situation since 1945. I know it sounds depressing, especially for people of the younger generation, but we need to mentally get used to the new era. We live in the pre-war era. I’m not exaggerating, every day this is becoming more obvious,” he said in an interview with El País.

In his opinion, Europe needs to pay more attention to the defense sector. At the same time, the goal of increasing efforts in this area is not to achieve military autonomy from the United States or create structures parallel to NATO, the politician clarified. Tusk explained that this is necessary for Europe to better use its potential.

  • Donald Tusk

  • AP

  • © Ebrahim Noroozi

Russian Ambassador to Great Britain Andrei Kelin called such statements by Western politicians an exaggeration.

“There is no pre-war situation in Europe, but there is a problem between Russia and Ukraine that must be resolved. Everything else is pure speculation,” TASS quotes him as saying.

As the diplomat recalled, the Russian leadership previously emphasized that Moscow does not seek to enter into conflict with NATO. In particular, Vladimir Putin stated this in February of this year during his address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. In his speech, the president recalled that the West itself provoked conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East and other regions of the world and “continues to lie.”

“Now they say without any embarrassment that Russia is allegedly going to attack Europe. They're just... talking nonsense. At the same time, they themselves choose targets for striking our territory, choosing what they think are the most effective means of destruction. They started talking about the possibility of sending NATO military contingents to Ukraine,” Putin stated.

This is how the Russian leader commented on the words of a number of Western politicians that the Russian Federation could allegedly attack European countries in the future. Similar statements were made by the Norwegian Minister of Defense, representatives of the military command of the Netherlands and Belgium, the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and US President Joe Biden.

Against this background, in the Western socio-political space there is constant talk about the need to increase funding for the armed forces and even about a return to compulsory conscription into the army. The reintroduction of conscript service is being discussed in Poland and Germany, and in Latvia this measure was implemented back in 2023. 

“Ready to take extreme measures”

According to Pavel Feldman, Candidate of Political Science, Associate Professor at the Academy of Labor and Social Relations, the statements of Shapps and Tusk may indicate that NATO is really preparing for war.

“This is not so much about whipping up hysteria, but rather about drawing attention, as usual for the military, to their departments and to the problem of European defense capability. NATO's main interest now lies in a qualitative rethinking of the budgetary policies of all Western countries so that they allocate much more funds to defense. Moreover, it can be stated that, by promoting the topic of a possible world war, for the first time they managed to push through this initiative - rich European states are now cutting social spending items in their budgets and starting to spend more on the army,” said RT’s interlocutor.

  • British military

  • AFP

  • © Wojtek RADWANSKI

Feldman believes that senior NATO leaders are trying to shake up the political elites of their countries, using proven “bogeymen” in the form of Russia, Iran and other states that do not fit into the conventional “gold liberal democratic standard.”

“To scare people with something foreign that does not correspond to one’s own culture is a fairly common political and manipulative technique. Western military mastered it in the middle of the 20th century and are successfully using it now,” the specialist stated.

Pavel Feldman also believes that at the moment we can talk about the actual remilitarization of the West.

“The West realized how far behind it was in the development of its army and military-industrial complex. He fell behind because he believed in his power, in the fact that no state, no international alliance would ever dare to challenge him. Europeans really face militarization, which will be accompanied by a deterioration in their quality of life and protests. But, apparently, covering up the idea of ​​a far-fetched clash with Russia will force them to abandon the benefits to which they are accustomed in favor of the needs of the army,” the political scientist stated.

In turn, Oleg Nemensky, a leading researcher at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISI), called the statements of Shapps and Tusk “the voice of the war party.”

“This is the voice of that party on the European political scene that is deliberately leading to a big war between the West and Russia, promoting a third world war. Many in the West are in despair. This is not due to Ukraine and Russia, but to the fact that the West is losing its former significance in the world, its influence. And they are increasingly coming to the understanding that Russia’s success in Ukraine will be a stunning blow for the West. Accordingly, this conflict from a regional one for NATO has grown into an existential one. Therefore, in the West, a lot of people are ready to take extreme measures and are not afraid of a third world war,” the expert said in a commentary to RT.

At the same time, Nemensky believes that Western society is not yet ready for such militarization.

“The worst situation is with public opinion. Today's Western nations do not want to find themselves in a situation of world war again. If we remember the beginning of the First World War, when there was a militaristic frenzy, when many European nations had a very optimistic perception of its future results, then now there is nothing like it. Therefore, in order to turn the West into a military confrontation with Russia, the war party requires a fairly large program to reformat European public opinion, and American too,” the analyst concluded.