The Justice and Development Party lost in the local elections, as its control was reduced from 39 municipalities to only 24 (Anatolia)

Istanbul

- The resounding loss that befell the Justice and Development Party in the local elections that took place last Sunday sparked a wave of intense debate in political and media circles about the dynamics and reasons behind this noticeable decline in support, while some analysts described this shift as a punitive vote by voters. Expressing their protest against the policies of the Turkish government and the ruling party in various fields.

The Justice and Development Party witnessed a noticeable decline in its municipal control, as its administration decreased from 39 municipalities to only 24, including 12 large municipalities, placing it in second place with 35.5% of the votes nationwide.

On the other hand, the opposition Republican People's Party was able to strengthen its position remarkably, as the number of municipalities it administers increased from 21 to 35, including 14 major municipalities. It also continued to maintain its leadership of the municipalities of the main cities, topping the elections with 37.8%, which is What became known as the largest defeat for the Justice and Development Party since 2002.

Analysts described the loss as a punitive vote by voters (Anadolu Agency)

The economy is a reason

Turkish citizens complain about the difficult economic situation that Turkey has been going through for several years, which has affected various aspects of life, which has made economic issues the forefront of voters’ attention, against the backdrop of increasing inflation rates, especially in major cities, and the decline in the exchange rate of the Turkish lira. .

This time, the elections took place in an unprecedented economic context during the rule of the Justice and Development Party. Interest rates in Turkey reached 50%, in parallel with inflation recording its highest levels at 68.5% last March.

Likewise, the Turkish lira continued its downward march, recording a decline of about 9% since the beginning of this year, and the devastating earthquake that struck Kahramanmaraş also contributed to adding a heavy economic burden to the country, deepening the current economic crises.

These data have led to a decline in the living situation, particularly represented by the rise in basic costs of life. Such as: rents, which put great pressure on family budgets, especially in major cities. Voters found in these elections an important opportunity to show the extent of their dissatisfaction with the current conditions.

In addition, marginal increases in pensions were the focus of dissatisfaction among Turkish retirees, who number approximately 15 million people, which contributed significantly to the decline in support for the party. Some of these retirees chose to abstain from voting in the elections, while the rest found themselves divided between... Support and opposition to the party.

Interest rates in Turkey rose to 50%, in parallel with inflation recording its highest levels at 68.5% (Reuters)

Shifts in economic policy

The major economic contributions made by the Justice and Development Party at the beginning of its rule played a pivotal role in supporting its successful path and securing its victories in many successive electoral dates.

Since assuming power in 2002, the Justice and Development Party has charted a positive and advanced path in Turkey’s economic and social structure under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It has achieved multiple successes that included qualitative shifts in the volume of Turkish exports, made important discoveries in the field of oil, and signed major agreements that strengthen Turkey’s position in exploitation. Gas and oil resources. In addition, the country has witnessed a significant modernization of the defense industries and a notable expansion of the tourism sector.

The most notable economic success of the Justice and Development Party, after 2003, is that it removed the six zeros from the local currency and raised its value against the dollar. After the dollar was equivalent to millions of liras, in 2005 the dollar became equivalent to 1.34 liras.

Erdogan succeeded for the first time in reducing the interest rate to single digits in 2014 with an interest rate of 9%, and to 7.8% in 2017, representing the best years of performance and economic stability for the Justice and Development governments.

In the face of the sharp decline in the value of the Turkish lira, Erdogan remained steadfast in his stance against increasing interest rates. He expressed his conviction that this weakness in the lira does not accurately represent the country's rational economic situation, considering that interest rates represent a tool for enrichment that is in the interest of the wealthy at the expense of deepening the wounds of the poor.

Shimek's appointment came as the government adopted a more stringent model in a shift from the previous economic approach (Reuters)

According to Erdogan's vision, high interest rates, whether 24% or even 19%, constituted a stumbling block to the path of production and investment expansion, which led to the accumulation of money in banks and surrendering to stagnation, instead of engaging in business and projects.

However, with the deterioration of the economic situation resulting from the interest-fighting model, the Turkish government decided to adopt a policy of economic tightening with the appointment of new economic leaders, the most prominent of whom was the Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Simsek, and the Central Bank Governor, Ghaya Arkan, who later resigned.

The new economic team has unveiled a medium-term economic program for the period from 2024 to 2026, which aims to grow the Turkish economy by 4% this year, with the inflation rate falling to 33%, and with the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP reaching about 6.4%, provided that The unemployment rate is 10.3%.

This new direction in economic policy has dissatisfied many citizens, including both opponents and supporters of the strategy of lowering interest rates. Opponents believe that the current administration has pushed the Turkish economy towards an extremely difficult state that requires intensive efforts to rebuild it, while others view the renewed economic approach as a radical change in the ideologies and principles that were promoted by Erdogan's rule.

Post-election

It does not seem that economic policies in Turkey will witness a new change. In his speech after the results of the local elections to the people, Turkish President Erdogan pledged to continue implementing his economic agenda, and to give his economic team more time to implement measures aimed at reversing the course of the economic downturn, expressing his optimism in seeing positive results. In the last half of the year.

In his analysis of the current economic situation and its impact on the political arena, economic analyst Muhammad Abu Alyan says to Al Jazeera Net: “The deteriorating economic conditions and current inflationary pressures have shown their direct impact on the participation of some social segments in the elections, especially with the rising costs of living, which place their burden in particular on the middle classes.” , low-income people, and retirees.

The government is expected to continue adopting its approach based on restrictive monetary policy and financial discipline, in response to combating high inflation, which is one of the most prominent economic challenges facing Turkey at the present time.

Abu Alyan adds that, given the lack of scheduled elections during the next four years, the government has a golden opportunity to implement fundamental economic reforms. It is also expected that the government will seek to attract foreign capital, especially by encouraging foreign direct investment, by offering incentives and benefits that enhance the attractiveness of the environment. investment in the country.

Source: Al Jazeera