Paris Olympics.. Why are France's fears of Russia escalating?

French authorities have raised their alert level to enhance security measures ahead of the Olympic Games in Paris (French)

French President Emmanuel Macron hopes to impose an "Olympic truce" under which military actions between Russia and Ukraine will be suspended on the occasion of the Olympic Games to be held in Paris in the summer of 2024. This truce represents a tradition in the ancient games and has roots dating back to the Greek era.

However, Paris is preparing for the worst possible scenarios. After the attack of last March 22, which targeted a concert hall in Moscow and was claimed by the Islamic State, the National Defense and Security Council in France announced that it had raised the level of security vigilance to the highest level in anticipation of possible attacks, for the first time since the middle of the year. October 2023 after the stabbing assassination of Professor Dominique Bernard.

But the matter does not stop at the potential threats of the Islamic State, as Paris believes that the Russian threat poses its greatest security challenge ahead of the start of the Olympic Games.

Paris believes that the Russian threat poses its biggest security challenge ahead of the start of the Olympic Games (Shutterstock)

A truce collides with doubts

Although Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged his readiness to discuss any controversial proposals or files with the West, in response to the French President’s invitation, it is not possible to talk about advance guarantees about an actual truce on the ground.

Returning to the call of the United Nations to establish the Olympic Truce, the ancient Greek tradition called “Ekicheria” was born in the eighth century BC, and formed the sacred principle upon which the Olympic Games were based.

In 1992, the Olympic Committee renewed this tradition by calling on all nations to observe this truce. For its part, the United Nations General Assembly urged member states, in its resolution 48/11 of October 25, 1993, to observe the Olympic Truce from the seventh day before the opening of the Olympic Games until the seventh day following its conclusion.

Beginning in 1994, the President of the General Assembly began issuing an official appeal to observe the truce. The official appeal is issued every two years before the start of the Summer, Winter and Paralympic Games.

Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008 coinciding with the Beijing Olympics exposed Moscow to accusations of not respecting the declared truces (Getty)

The West has long accused Moscow of not respecting the declared truces, including the Russian forces’ invasion of Georgia in 2008 coinciding with the Beijing Olympics, the forcible annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 during the Sochi Winter Games, and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, 4 days after the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing.

Regarding the 2024 Olympics, countries in the General Assembly voted unanimously on a draft resolution for an Olympic truce, with the countries of Syria and Russia retaining their votes.

But does declaring a “truce” only include stopping the movement of guns?

"Hybrid Warfare" Tactics

Paris shares with the rest of the European Union capitals the fear of Moscow expanding its “hybrid warfare” tactics against Ukraine and its Western allies through cyberattacks, manipulation of information and the infiltration of agents responsible for destabilizing operations.

For its part, the French newspaper Le Monde reported that the matter was a “war of attrition” whose effects were more prominent in the service sector and the armies, and it concluded in its analysis that all those who confronted the Russians in the French defense apparatus noticed a more “impulsive” and unrestrained approach taken by Moscow in this war against... Member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

One of the imminent dangers that Paris fears will occur is what French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu revealed that the Russian air surveillance system threatened to strike French fighter jets that were flying during a patrol in an international free zone over the Black Sea.

In February 2024, the Minister revealed that there had been approximately 100 aggressive cybernetic interactions emanating from Moscow, including 70 directed at European targets.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Zaid Al-Azem, a political analyst and member of the French Ennahda Party, said that the possibility of the Russian threat is serious and real, and France takes it very seriously.

He added that the French government had already revealed the possibility of Russia using drones to launch attacks on Paris on the opening day of the Games, in addition to the possibility of Russian hackers targeting information systems and Internet networks to disrupt the Games.

"Electronic guerrilla warfare"

In an article published in the British newspaper the Financial Times in August 2023, writer and political analyst Michael Miklosich saw that Ukraine represents a front for a broader fight within the framework of a war aimed at determining who will have the upper hand and superiority in the new world order.

The writer explained that apart from the power of weapons and Russia’s combat capabilities, Moscow has other tools that it has previously used in previous conflicts to cause chaos in Western countries and harm their interests, such as its interference in the US presidential elections in 2016, and the release of the “NotPetya” malware to the Internet with the knowledge of the electronic hacking group. “Sandworm” supported by the Kremlin, in addition to the Russian information war machine that can confuse any country.

In light of these capabilities, Le Monde says that France, like other countries, must face a real “electronic guerrilla war.”

For comparison, Cleo Collomb, a lecturer at the University of Paris, and Nicolas Hernandez, president of Thousand Network, a company specializing in open source intelligence, counted approximately 25 cyber attacks per month in the world linked to the war in Ukraine in the period between January and June. 2022, bringing the number to about 200 per month starting in February 2023.

According to the French newspaper’s report, fake identity attacks and data encryption represent the greatest concern for all platforms in France, and they are no longer limited to defense industry platforms and the companies handling them, but rather include third parties, such as law firms, accountants, services, and others.

Le Monde warns that Moscow needs to develop its networks abroad, especially in Europe, to implement its “hybrid” war that combines traditional and technological means, despite the major blow that its regime has received since the beginning of the conflict, with the West expelling about 600 agents active under Diplomatic cover and increased vigilance over visas granted throughout Europe. Within two years, Moscow has been able to largely reorganize itself and redeploy part of its agents to countries located on the periphery of Ukraine.

Le Monde says that France, like Britain, is working to ensure that Moscow does not reconstitute its pre-war team of agents, estimated at the time at about 80 agents, who were working under diplomatic cover.

However, Julien Nocetti, an associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations who specializes in cyber and digital conflicts, points out that Paris “has not yet found the appropriate means to confront this all-out hybrid war” led by Russia through the window of war in Ukraine.

Counter-propaganda

Paris, the host of the Olympic Games, also complains of active "systematic" propaganda against its image, along with calls for a boycott, in which it accuses Moscow, and partly Azerbaijan, of being behind it, by launching extensive campaigns on social media sites focusing on intimidation about the "bedbug" crisis and rat infestation in Streets, and the campaign went so far as to replace the Olympic mascot with alternating bugs and rats.

While the French government's Minister Delegate for European Affairs, Jean-Noel Barrot, warned against creating a "false link" between the spread of bedbugs and the arrival of Ukrainian refugees to France, the French channel TF1 spoke through investigations and audits about the spread of fake reports on the fronts of French newspapers on the Internet. The Internet and social media sites directly link the spread of environmental and health problems to Western sanctions against Russia.

Paris also complained about the spread of accounts run by robots that publish automatically rebroadcast video clips, as one of the clips publicly warns of attacks during the Olympic Games, and although the French intelligence services denied the existence of official warnings, they take all possibilities seriously.

According to French politician Zaid Al-Azm's analysis for Al Jazeera Net, behind its steps and policies towards Paris, Russia wants revenge for two issues: the first relates to strong French support for Ukraine in the war, and the second relates to depriving Russian athletes of raising the Russian flag during the Olympic Games.

According to the analyst, what confirms that Paris takes Russian threats very seriously is the French army’s launch of maneuvers to train to repel comprehensive cyberattacks.

The International Olympic Committee stipulated that participants not support the war in Ukraine (French)

New restrictions and precautionary steps

Paris's precautionary move was parallel to a broader move that included member states of the European bloc. Last March, the European Council decided to impose new restrictive measures on 106 individuals and 88 additional entities, which it considered responsible for actions that undermine or threaten Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence.

In total, the restrictive measures imposed by the European Union in relation to the Ukrainian war apply to more than two thousand individuals and entities, and the persons concerned are subject to an asset freeze and a travel ban, which prevents them from entering or transiting through the territory of the European Union, including French territory.

The European Council also added 27 new entities to the list of entities that directly support the Russian military and industrial complex in its war on Ukraine. According to the Council’s decision, these entities will be subject to more stringent export restrictions regarding dual-use goods and technologies, as well as goods and technology that may contribute In the technological strengthening of the defense and security sector in Russia.

Although Moscow has repeatedly complained of what it described as discrimination and insult against its President Vladimir Putin and its athletes against the backdrop of their exclusion from participating in the Games and other international tournaments due to the war in Ukraine, the political and sports circles in Russia have not issued any official intention for a possible Russian boycott of the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Russian Sports Minister Oleg Matyasin said, "We should not turn our backs or boycott the games, but rather seek dialogue and participate in some games."

Neutral athletes

The International Olympic Committee excluded Russian athletes from participating in the Paris Olympics after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, but in December 2023, it agreed to admit Russians and Belarusians to the games as neutral individual athletes.

Then the committee also decided to ban their participation in the opening ceremony, imposing a condition that they do not show any symbol of their nationality or affiliation in the event that they win medals, which was widely considered in Moscow as discrimination that contradicts the Olympic spirit and principles and the laws of the Russian Federation.

According to what was reported by the Russian "RIA Novosti" agency, Svetlana Zurova, First Vice-Chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Russian State Duma and Olympic champion in speed skating, ruled out the participation of Russian athletes in the 2024 Paris Olympics, at the same time accusing the International Olympic Committee of trying to divide society. Russian.

In any case, despite his public criticism of the Olympic Committee's decision, the Russian Minister of Sports stated that the decision for Russian athletes to participate in the Games would ultimately be up to the athletes themselves.

But participation may not completely rule out any possible retaliatory action from Moscow, including cyberattacks, due to “systematic discrimination,” which is what observers in the West fear.

Crocus attack

These fears were strengthened after the attack on a concert in the Crocus City Hall, in which Russia did not rule out complicity from abroad, specifically from Kiev and its Western allies, in mobilizing ISIS elements with the aim of “struggling national unity,” as stated in President Putin’s statements.

Although France announced its complete condemnation of the attack and its solidarity with Moscow, in talks between the defense ministers of the two countries, the first since October 2022, there are no actual indications that the tension has resolved.

The Russian Ministry of Defense's accusations were clear towards Paris and Western capitals regarding sending mercenary soldiers to fight Russian forces in Ukraine, including French mercenaries whose number was estimated at about 350 soldiers.

The Russian Prosecutor General's Office has already sent requests to France, Germany, the United States and Cyprus to assist in investigations and ensure that those responsible for criminal acts are punished in accordance with international agreements.

These successive developments and complex situations in the Ukraine war keep the doors open regarding what may happen on the line of contact between Russia and the West, including the upcoming Olympics in the summer of 2024.

Source: Al Jazeera + websites