Israeli army maneuvers simulate a comprehensive confrontation with Hezbollah (Israeli army)

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Seriously, Israel took Tehran's threats expressed by Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei, in a tweet in Hebrew that he published on his account on the "X" platform, in which he threatened Israel with remorse and targeting.

This was in response to an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus, which resulted in the killing of 13 people, including commanders and advisors in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

In another tweet, the Iranian Supreme Leader threatened Israel, saying that it “will receive a blow for targeting the Iranian consulate in Damascus,” stressing that “Iran will respond to the strike.”

Since the Israeli war on Gaza and the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle on October 7, 2023, the Iranian leader has published tweets in Hebrew from time to time, threatening Israel and confirming his support for the Palestinian resistance in the war on Gaza.

But the tweet that followed the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, according to Israeli analysts’ estimates, differs in its content and essence from the Iranian leader’s previous tweets in Hebrew, even though they all threaten Israel.

We will make the Zionists regret the crime of attacking the Iranian consulate in Damascus and others like it, with God’s help and strength.

- Imam Khamenei (@ar_khamenei) April 2, 2024

to threaten

From the point of view of Israeli analysts, Khamenei’s tweet appears serious and sharper, as it carries within it dual messages to the Israeli society and leadership, and reflects Iran’s seriousness in responding and retaliating for the killing of Revolutionary Guard leaders in the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, including the Supreme Commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, And Commander Muhammad Hadi Haji Rahimi.

According to estimates by the Israeli security services, the Iranian retaliatory response to the assassination of senior officials in Damascus may come with a specific attempt by Tehran to carry out a military operation or target Israeli sites and targets. At the same time, Israel said in a message to its citizens that “there is no reason for panic, nor "There is a fear of being drawn into a regional war."

The Israeli army spokesman, Daniel Hagari, sought to reassure the Israeli public in light of the state of panic due to Iran’s threats, saying, “We take every statement and every enemy seriously, and we must not be complacent, but at the same time there is no change in the directives of the front’s leadership.” "The only recommendation is to be vigilant."

Iranian demonstrators burn the American and Israeli flags in Tehran to protest the attack (French)

The most difficult scenario

According to all the tweets, signals, and warnings sent by Iran, Amos Harel, a military analyst in Haaretz newspaper, says, “The regime in Tehran is determined to respond to the assassination attributed to Israel of senior members of the Revolutionary Guard in Damascus, led by General Hassan Mahdavi.”

In anticipation of the Iranian response, the military analyst says, “The Israeli security services are witnessing a high degree of vigilance and an unprecedented state of alert, a full mobilization of the air force, and the cancellation of vacations in the ranks of the army, against the backdrop of the possibility of a retaliatory attack.”

Harel reviewed the possible scenarios for the Iranian response, as it is not unlikely that Tehran will attack the Israeli interior, through a direct attack with drones and cruise missiles from Iran itself, against infrastructure sites in Israel.

The military analyst estimated that "the most realistic scenarios for implementation lie in launching missiles on a large scale, from Lebanon or Syria, through Hezbollah or from armed militias loyal to Iran, or an attempt to strike one of the Israeli embassies and the headquarters of Jewish communities around the world."

Harel says, "The rationale for the planned Iranian response is the strengthening of Tehran's convictions that Israel planned to target the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard in order to expand the dimensions of the conflict with Hezbollah and drag Iran into greater involvement."

Accordingly, the military analyst estimates that “there will be a response from Lebanon, at a time and place that Tehran chooses, but the question here is the extent of Tehran’s ability to prepare a military operation in a short time, and the possibility of attacking the Israeli depth at the present time?”

Israeli preparedness

In reading the meanings and connotations of Khamenei’s tweet and Iran’s threats, Yedioth Ahronoth’s military and security affairs correspondent, Yossi Yehoshua, wrote an article entitled “In the face of Iranian threats, it is time to play hard on defense,” indicating the need for Israeli air defenses to be at the highest level of readiness. , as it will be the first serious test for protecting the home front.

The Military and Security Affairs correspondent believes that no official in Israel knows what Iranian retaliation will be like, noting that there are different estimates at the headquarters of the Israeli Ministry of Security in Tel Aviv, saying that “Israel must defend itself, and know how to respond in the right way.” correct action in the face of any retaliation, when it occurs.”

Before reviewing the various options and response scenarios, Yehoshua pointed out that the Israeli Air Force has raised the level of alert to the maximum level, and will increase the air defense system, but it should be made clear that there is a real difficulty in intercepting explosive drones, and that no country in the world has a proven ability to do so. Thus, he said, “Sometimes expectations are higher than the ability to perform.”

He pointed out that the Iranians have several options to respond, starting with a direct attack on Israel from its territory with missiles, through activating its agents in Syria, Yemen and Iraq, all the way to activating Hezbollah, which has so far avoided doing so completely, and of course harming and harming Israeli officials or in Israeli embassies around... the world.

pending

The same proposal was adopted by Ron Ben Yishai, a military analyst at the Ynet website, but he ruled out that the Iranian response would lead to a regional war, saying, “Khamenei, who tweeted in Hebrew, wants revenge, so as not to appear as if he is weak and helpless, but the action and response are likely to be limited.” ".

However, Ben Yishai says, “It is clear that the weekend and the coming days are a very sensitive and explosive time, when the Iranian Jerusalem Day and the last Friday of the month of Ramadan fall,” indicating that the Iranians may try to kill soldiers and commanders in the Israeli army off the border. North, as well as carrying out armed operations from the West Bank or infiltration operations from the Golan at the ceasefire line.

The military analyst adds, "At the same time, it can be estimated that the Iranians have not yet drawn up the broad outlines of a military action and response plan, and that they are studying options. It is also possible to estimate with a high degree of certainty that they are interested in military action and a limited response, which will not lead to a regional war, but rather will... "It causes great harm to the public in Israel and insults the Israeli security forces."

Source: Al Jazeera