The American-Israeli dispute... where to?

Netanyahu (left) seeks to resist Biden’s pressure for reasons related to his desire to dedicate himself to being the first prime minister of the entity to resist American pressure (Al Jazeera - Medgorny)

The United States’ passage of Security Council Resolution No. 2728 calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip sparked a public dispute between the administration of US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

This came at the height of differences between the two parties, which included the possible Israeli invasion of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, the ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal with the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), and the plan for the day after the war and the role of the Palestinian Authority in it.

It is important to disentangle the nature of these differences, their causes, the extent to which the strategic relationship between the two parties has been affected by them, and the impact of all of this on the course of the war on Gaza.

Motives and justifications

The reasons for the US administration’s unprecedented position in the Security Council vary between an attempt to stimulate the negotiating process between Israel and Hamas regarding the ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal, and sending a practical message to Netanyahu to stop challenging the US administration, and perhaps also an attempt to strengthen internal pressures on him, whether within his government or on the Israeli street. .

This comes in light of Washington’s awareness that Netanyahu is seeking to obstruct the negotiations, and insists on invading Rafah, because he knows that the mere cessation of fire will activate demands within the entity to hold elections in which he will be the biggest loser, according to what opinion polls confirm, and thus he will find himself facing a trial accused of corruption, as well as being held accountable. On the failures of October 7th.

Netanyahu also aligns with the extreme Kahanist right, which refuses to recognize the Palestinian national identity at all, and opposes any role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, because he believes that the most appropriate solution for the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza is to displace them outside of Palestine. He also threatens to withdraw from the government if Netanyahu agrees to today’s vision. The next war proposed by the Biden administration.

Reducing stress

With this step, Biden also seeks to reduce the internal pressure on him from the left wing of his party, which continues to accuse him of collusion with Netanyahu in committing genocide, and calls for consideration of the dangers that this position poses to the reputation and role of the United States. This is in addition to the continuing damage to Biden's position in the US presidential election campaign against his Republican rival, Donald Trump.

It was also noted that the shift that began in American society against Israel was observed, especially among young people in general in America and the world. According to the latest Gallup poll, 55% of Americans do not support the aggression against Gaza!

Also, Biden - who had previously considered that Netanyahu was doing more harm to Israel than good - found encouragement from the position of the head of the Democratic majority in Congress, Chuck Schumer, who is one of the most ardent supporters of the entity, who strongly criticized Netanyahu, considered him a major obstacle to peace, and called for new elections in Israel.

However, the US State Department, after the angry reactions of the occupation government, tried to mitigate the impact of the situation, and announced in a statement that the UN Security Council’s resolution for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is “non-binding,” and that its implementation may take place through negotiations.

It also intended to place the American position in a framework that does not contradict the entity’s steadfast support in its war against Hamas, and therefore appended the statement by affirming that the decision “has absolutely no impact on Israel’s war on Hamas, and that America continues to support Israel.”

It is important to emphasize that any decision issued by the Security Council is binding on the parties concerned with it, and therefore the statements of the US State Department have no legal value. However, its real value is that - as a superpower - it can ignore the resolution and support Israel in ignoring it, as happened with similar Security Council resolutions.

Accumulation of disagreements

There is no doubt that Biden’s disagreement with Netanyahu surfaced with the beginnings of the Israeli aggression, when the occupation army failed to achieve a military victory over the resistance by the end of the period given to it by Washington (the end of January 2024), while the Netanyahu government continued to refuse to present a vision for today. Following the war, its focus on targeting civilians, hospitals, and schools intensified international criticism of the Biden administration.

This disturbs the Anglo-Saxon alliance that it formed since the beginning of the war, especially since it increased the pace of demonstrations demanding an end to the war that spread across the cities, especially in the two countries that supported the occupation (America and Britain).

Continuing without a political horizon for the war may enhance the chances of its arenas expanding to include Lebanon and other countries such as Iraq and Syria, as well as the development of the conflict with the Ansar Allah Houthi group in the Red Sea, noting that the American battleships and forces deployed in the region provide a safety net for Israel, and transform... -In many cases- without the Houthi missiles and marches reaching the entity.

This is in addition to the possibility of conflict erupting in the West Bank and Jerusalem, which are standing on a powder keg in light of the oppressive Israeli practices, the continued settler provocations and the expansion of settlements.

The Netanyahu government did not show sufficient cooperation with Biden to implement his strategy and to try to restore his electoral standing, and this is what continues to ignite differences between the two parties, even though the Biden administration has confirmed time and time again that it will not resort to imposing sanctions or placing restrictions on the export of weapons to the entity, or that Remove political support from him in international forums!

The American position comes within the context of developing differences with Netanyahu in the way of conducting the war on Gaza, and not on the principle of the war itself, and within the dispute with Netanyahu himself and not with Israel, and even taking it into the hands of the Israeli Prime Minister so as not to harm Israel and its American ally.

Biden's disagreement (left) with Netanyahu came to the fore when the occupation army failed to achieve a military victory over the resistance by the end of the period given to it by Washington (agencies)

Hence the increasing American statements from the Biden government and its intelligence services that Netanyahu’s continued ignoring of American demands is causing great harm to the image of the war and to Israel. What is also striking is that Trump himself sent a clear message to Israel of the necessity of stopping the war out of concern for its interests!

On the other hand, the United States sees the Gaza war as its war. Defeating Hamas serves the American project in the region based on continued hegemony, exclusivity, etc., which requires empowering its protege Israel, making it a pivotal state, and working to integrate it through normalization processes in the region.

Although Washington has succeeded so far, through its threats to the various parties, in controlling reactions in the region and preventing the conflict from developing into a regional war, the continued escalation of the conflict in Gaza requires it to control the course of the war and put an end to settlers’ provocations in the West Bank by taking sanctions against them in conjunction with the Europeans.

Also, the American withdrawal from the region in favor of focusing on the strategic threat to China, and confronting Russia in its war with Ukraine, requires the necessity of securing the region, and it seems that the current Netanyahu government is obstructing this, as it has failed in the mission of eliminating Hamas militarily, while rejecting the vision of the next day, which promises It is necessary to complete the military achievement, and prevent Hamas from civilian control of the Gaza Strip.

American support...and Netanyahu is in conflict

The US administration’s differences with Netanyahu are not the result of the Al-Aqsa flood period. Washington’s refusal to seek judicial amendments from the far-right government has reinforced the differences between the two parties, in addition to deepening the gap within Israeli society, especially with the participation of a large number of Israeli soldiers, officers and pilots in massive opposition demonstrations. Many considered it a devastating blow to so-called Israeli democracy.

The Gaza war led to the escalation of these disputes, even though the United States provided full support and cover for this war, including an uninterrupted air bridge that included more than 100 arms deals since the start of the aggression, according to the Washington Post.

Both chambers of the US Congress also approved emergency aid worth more than $14 billion to the entity, in addition to annual aid worth $3.8 billion, which confirms the extent of American support for Israel, regardless of the differences with it!

Defense Minister Yoav Galant's recent visit to Washington came to request urgent ammunition and F-35 and F-15 aircraft in light of the occupation army's preparations to enter Rafah, as well as the continuing battles in the north with Hezbollah.

Hence the astonishment of many of the entity’s former prime ministers, such as Barak and Lapid, as well as Netanyahu’s partners, Gantz and Eisenkot, at his stubbornness and his continued challenge to America, whose support he cannot abandon, even for a single moment. On the other hand, many members of Congress disapproved of the continued unlimited American support. And their demand to place restrictions and controls on the export of weapons to Israel, without this receiving a response from Biden!

It is clear from this that Netanyahu cannot go far in his challenge to the United States, which provides him with every reason to continue the war, and that he must coordinate with the Biden administration in waging the war on Rafah, and this is what prompted him to retract his position of not sending his delegation to Washington to discuss with The American administration has options for invading Rafah, and the need to secure civilians there before launching the aggression.

Netanyahu appears alone in his opposition to the American administration, and he will need to manage the relationship with Washington in a way that leads to his smooth receipt of military aid from it. If he is to satisfy the religious parties in his government on the issue of Haredi recruitment, he must offer his other partners and Washington concessions related to the issue of the prisoner exchange deal. And managing the conflict of calling for elections.

American intelligence services doubt the possibility of the occupation army succeeding in achieving its goals of eliminating Hamas and recovering prisoners by force (Israeli press)

The war continues

In general, the Biden administration seeks to intensify pressure on Netanyahu to bring about a change in his policies that are compatible with American goals in the region, without affecting the unlimited support for Israel in its war in Gaza.

But on the other hand, Netanyahu seeks to resist these pressures for personal and political reasons, related to his desire to devote himself to being the first prime minister of the entity to resist American pressures, and to try to hold on to his government until the time of the American elections, as Trump’s success in winning them may constitute a lifeboat for his government and for himself, including It spares him from facing an inevitable fate.

Reaching a prisoner deal will constitute the first steps toward a solution between the two parties, ensuring the continuation of the war on Gaza in the next stage, including the implementation of a military plan for Rafah in which Washington wants to focus on Hamas forces and neutralize civilians.

However, according to some military analyses, the occupation army cannot achieve in Rafah what it was unable to achieve in the north, center, and Khan Yunis, given the continued effectiveness of the resistance, which makes it fail to serve the American strategy in the region.

This means that the American role in the region will continue to falter, as the American intelligence services themselves doubt the possibility of the occupation army succeeding in achieving its goals of eliminating Hamas and recovering prisoners by force.

This will not stop the deterioration of the entity’s position in the region after it lost the image of the invincible army. Indeed, the defeat of the occupation on the seventh of last October and beyond will remain a turning point in the conflict, regardless of the outcome of this final war.

Source: Al Jazeera