Israeli occupation army maneuvers at a military command headquarters in the Golan and the north simulating a comprehensive confrontation with Hezbollah (the Israeli army)

Occupied Jerusalem -

The actions and maneuvers carried out by the Israeli occupation army in the Upper Galilee and the occupied Syrian Golan, in addition to the acceleration of events on the northern front with Lebanon and Syria, are paving the way for a scenario of the outbreak of a comprehensive war between Israel and Hezbollah.

The features of the all-out war scenario were strengthened, with Israeli Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy approving combat plans on the northern front, in conjunction with the Israeli Air Force’s assassination of leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, in an attack targeting the Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital, Damascus.

Halevy's approval of the battle plans on the northern front coincided with Defense Minister Yoav Galant holding consultations with the leadership of the home front regarding the extent of readiness and endurance for war, as well as the nature and axes of the media campaign that the Israeli army will adopt in the event of a comprehensive war with Hezbollah.

In light of the escalation of tension on the northern front, and the exchange of bombing between Hezbollah and Israel following the assassination of Iranian leaders in Damascus, the Israeli security services raised the state of alert and preparedness to the highest level in the occupied Syrian Golan and along the northern border with Lebanon, in anticipation of a response from Hezbollah and the armed organizations. Pro-Iranian.

Chief of Staff Halevy (right) with Commander of Northern Command, Major General Uri Gordin (IDF)

Preparing the home front

The Israeli army continues preparations and maneuvers to enhance preparedness in the event that the confrontation expands and escalates on the northern front, as the army and the Ministry of Education informed the heads of local authorities in the north that the school year may not open next September, while studies in the border towns with Lebanon will not take place until the end of the year 2024.

In light of the state of emergency, the Israeli army’s home front crews, in cooperation with the Ministry of Education, held sessions with school principals, especially in the greater Tel Aviv area and Jerusalem, as part of readiness and readiness to evacuate hundreds of thousands of Israelis from the north and the Upper Galilee.

The Home Front Command asked the principals to prepare schools to teach students remotely, via the Zoom system, as the schools will be used as shelter centers for hundreds of thousands of Israelis who will be evacuated if a comprehensive war breaks out on the northern front.

With the escalation of tension and the intensification of the confrontation on the northern front, discussions were held, headed by Gallant, as the Home Front Command presented him with a media campaign aimed at coordinating expectations with the Israeli public in the event that the skirmishes actually turned into an all-out war.

Commander of the Northern Command, Major General Uri Gordin, met with the heads of local authorities in the north and the border towns (Israeli Army)

Media campaign

In reference to the continuation of Israeli measures and preparations for the scenario of expansion of the war with Hezbollah, the military and security affairs correspondent for the newspaper “Yedioth Ahronoth”, Yossi Yehoshua, said, “If we assume that Israel is actually responsible for the assassination of the prominent member of the Revolutionary Guard in Damascus, this serves as another reminder of the need.” "The reality is to prepare the entire Israeli public for a comprehensive war against Hezbollah and the armed groups from Iran."

Yehoshua says, “There is a consensus among the Israeli security establishment about the need for a propaganda campaign to prepare the Israelis for a comprehensive war, but there is disagreement about how to market this issue to the public.” Accordingly, the Minister of Defense ordered an opinion poll to be conducted to examine the positions of the Israeli public on this issue.

The military and security affairs correspondent adds, "It is not clear what questions will be asked to the Israelis, and how they will affect decisions related to national security, but this shows the extent of the interest of the entire security establishment, which views the issue of reconnaissance with great importance, as part of the preparations for an all-out war scenario."

It appears from the summary of the discussions conducted by Gallant that, in addition to the fear, panic, and chaos in Israel, Gallant is also concerned about the way the campaign will affect Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, and fears the repercussions of the battle of awareness on the Israelis.

Yehoshua explained, “Nasrallah, who is considered a compulsive consumer of the Israeli media, and often analyzes the mood of the Israeli public through what is reported in the media, may think that merely promoting the campaign is an opportunity to do what Hezbollah avoided on October 7, which is to invade.” In the border towns and the Upper Galilee.

Yehoshua believes that Nasrallah has achieved a strategic achievement so far, which is evacuating the settlements along the northern border with Lebanon, and evacuating about 100,000 from their homes in the border towns, saying, “Although Hezbollah is suffering very heavy losses, Radwan’s forces are active and moving at a distance.” About 5 kilometers from the border."

Estimation of forces

The dilemma of the media campaign has accompanied all senior officials in the Israeli army since the second war on Lebanon in 2006. Even if the media is interested in the size of the precision missiles that Hezbollah possesses, the prevailing belief is that most of the Israeli public does not know or prefers to suppress the facts.

For example, according to Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper estimates, Hezbollah can launch the number of rockets daily that Hamas launched at the start of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle on October 7, that is, 4,000 rockets per day.

The newspaper believes that these missiles will cause comprehensive destruction on the Israeli home front and heavy losses, but the Israeli Air Force - on the other hand - is equipped with capabilities that make Gaza look like Las Vegas, in addition to what will happen to Beirut if an all-out war breaks out.

In a reading of the scenario of development and escalation of tension into a comprehensive war on the northern front, military analyst for Haaretz newspaper Amos Harel said, “Since October 7, Israel and Hezbollah have been wary of sliding toward a comprehensive war in the north.”

But the military analyst says, “Israel at this stage is the one betting, and has raised the ceiling of risks toward a comprehensive confrontation. The Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, in which the commander of the Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, was killed, puts Nasrallah at a crossroads. "Israel faces unprecedented challenges."

He explains, "Hezbollah has already fired thousands of rockets and anti-tank shells at Israel since October 8, but until now it has been very careful in choosing targets located in the Upper Galilee, as no rockets or precision weapons have been launched deep into Israeli territory."

The question that Israel is awaiting an answer, according to the military analyst, “is whether Nasrallah and his Iranian sponsors will decide that the matter now requires a different message, and will intensify their response with precise missiles that strike the Israeli depths, as such a step on their part could shorten the path to all-out war.”

Source: Al Jazeera