Turks at the polls to choose their mayors, a test for Erdogan

Europe 1 with AFP // Pixabay 7:27 a.m., March 31, 2024

Turks began voting this Sunday to choose their mayors, a local ballot with a test value for the administration of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who intends to take back the "national treasure", Istanbul.

The 61 million Turkish voters began voting on Sunday to choose their mayors, a local vote with a test value for the administration of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who intends to take back the "national treasure", Istanbul. The offices opened in two stages, first in the east then, an hour later, in the west of the country including Istanbul and Ankara since 8:00 a.m. (05:00 GMT), AFP correspondents noted.

At 70, Mr. Erdogan threw all his stature as a statesman into the campaign, plowing his country of 85 million inhabitants alongside the candidates of his party, the AKP (Islamo-conservative), holding out until 'at four meetings a day and sharing iftar every evening, the meal to break the Ramadan fast. He thus personally invested alongside his candidate for Istanbul, an uncharismatic former minister, Murat Kurum, whose portrait generally appears alongside his on electoral banners.

>> READ ALSO -

 Hamas attack: Qatar, Egypt, Turkey... Who could play intermediaries?

Bouncing back after the affront 

It is a question of washing away the affront of 2019 by dislodging the outgoing mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, an opposition figure who took away the main and richest city of the country and who, in the event of his reappointment on the banks of the Bosphorus, will figure of favorite to take the head of the State in 2028. Again on Saturday, the day before the election, Mr. Erdogan held three meetings in Istanbul, the old Constantinople described as a "jewel" and a "national treasure", of which he was mayor in the 90s before gaining power. Once again he insisted on the shortcomings, according to him, of Mr. Imamoglu, whom he portrayed as an ambitious man with little concern for his city, a "part-time mayor" obsessed with the presidency.

“Istanbul has been abandoned to its fate over the past five years. We aspire to save it from disaster,” he said before going to pray at the Hagia Sophia mosque. At the end of the week, the polls gave the advantage to the outgoing mayor. In May 2023, however, they predicted a defeat in the presidential election for Mr. Erdogan, who had nevertheless been re-elected with 52% of the votes.

Dispersed opposition 

Unlike the municipal elections of 2019, the opposition this time leaves in dispersed order: the CHP (social democrat), its main party, did not manage to obtain the support of other parties, whether in Istanbul in favor of M .Imamoglu, or elsewhere in the country. The pro-Kurdish Dem party, in particular, is going it alone at the risk of favoring the ruling party, itself threatened in places by the rise of the Islamist Yeniden Refah party.

The CHP, however, wants to believe in it: "We are going to achieve a big victory tomorrow, which will not be anyone's defeat," assured Saturday the president of the party, Özgür Özel, strolling through Izmir, a city in the west of the country which should remain won over to the opposition, just like Ankara, the capital. “In the end, it is Turkey that will win,” he insisted. In Istanbul, Mr. Imamoglu for his part made sure to stay on local issues, listing his achievements and those to come.

In a country faced with 67% official inflation over twelve months and the collapse of its currency (from 19 to 31 pounds to the dollar in one year), voters may be tempted to give the advantage to the opponents of the head of the the state. For observers, the level of participation, traditionally high, will play a determining role. Particularly in Istanbul if voters turn out in smaller numbers to support Mr. Imamoglu.

“If Imamoglu manages to hold on, he will have won his battle within the opposition to establish himself” as leader for the next presidential election, notes Bayram Balci, researcher at the Center for International Studies and Research (Ceri) -Sciences-Po in Paris. But conversely, "if he manages to return to Istanbul and Ankara, Erdogan will see this as an encouragement to modify the Constitution to run again in 2028" and run for a fourth term, he notes.

In large cities, Turkish voters will choose their mayor but also municipal councilors, district mayors and muhtars (neighborhood leaders). In Istanbul, the ballot paper is approaching a meter in length. Offices will close at 5:00 p.m. (2:00 p.m. GMT) in the west and the first significant results are expected at the end of the day.