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Presidential election in the United States: how Donald Trump is trying to win over the African-American vote
Economic arguments, advertising campaigns, disinformation about Joe Biden... Seven months before the presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump is striving to improve his image among Black Americans, traditionally loyal supporters of the Democratic camp.
Former President Donald Trump, joined by Byron Donalds, left, and Wesley Hunt, right, speaks at the Black Conservative Federation's annual gala in Columbia, South Carolina, Friday, February 23, 2024. AP - Andrew Harnik
By: Caroline Renaux Follow
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“
A lot of people say that black people like me because they have suffered so much and been discriminated against and they see me as someone who has been discriminated against.
» Last February, on the eve of the South Carolina primary, former President
Donald Trump
argued before the Black Conservative Federation that black voters were more attracted to him after his multiple legal battles, comparing
his 91 criminal charges
to the discrimination they face. For the Republican candidate, twice indicted and four times indicted, they even “
adopted
” his now famous legal ID photo.
These comments were quickly denounced as "
racist
" and "
insulting
" by Democrats who, like others, did not fail to notice Donald Trump's attempt to improve his image among African-American voters. “
It’s a disinformation strategy to try to convince black voters that he is like our best friend and that our lives have never been better than during his presidency
,” said Cliff Albright, co-founder of the
Black Votes Matter
collective. .
Criminal justice reform, low unemployment rate…
These comments were much less virulent than those made against African countries, which he
described as “
shithole countries
”
, or when he threatened armed repression against anti-racist demonstrators gathered after the
death of George Floyd.
, an African-American who died at the hands of the Minneapolis police in 2020. On the contrary, since the start of his campaign, the billionaire has continued to praise the situation of African-Americans during his mandate, systematically attributing the blame to himself. deserves aid to historically black universities – an initiative of Congress, not the executive –, the adoption of a tax incentive program for disadvantaged areas or even the
First Step Act
which aims, between others, to reduce overincarceration.
Donald Trump also praised the low unemployment rate for African Americans, which had reached a minimum of 5.3% in August 2019 before the pandemic struck. On the other hand, the Republican candidate is careful not to mention that this downward trajectory had already begun during the presidency of Barack Obama and that it was also observed under
Joe Biden
, with an unemployment rate falling to 4.8% in April 2023, floor never seen since 1972.
The unemployment rate for Black Americans was low during Donald Trump's term before Covid. On the other hand, this downward trajectory was already present during the presidency of Barack Obama and the historic minimum was observed in April 2023, under Joe Biden. © FMM Graphic Studio
“
He tries to say that black people were more likely to have jobs when he was president by exploiting the way people remember it but doesn't contextualize that historically this number was getting lower and lower already before Trump not be president
,” analyzes Andra Gillespie, professor of political science at Emory University and specialist in African-American politics. “
The goal is to reach the segment of black voters who could be persuaded on the basis of economic issues.
»
Joe Biden, a “
vicious racist
”
This attempt to seduce the African-American electorate, which represents 13% of voters, is accompanied by a campaign aimed at discrediting his opponent, the current president. “
Joe Biden has proven to be a very nasty and vicious racist
,” Donald Trump said during his speech to the Black Conservative Federation, which he called “
Joe Biden’s worst nightmare
.”
At the same time, several advertising campaigns broadcast on radio stations targeting the black community attack the Democratic candidate, accusing him of being responsible for a
fentanyl crisis
caused by his border policies and of taking black votes for granted. . These advertisements, financed by the political action committee Maga Inc and broadcast in the key states of Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan, suggest that Donald Trump would, conversely, have honored his commitments to African-American voters. “
Republicans want to create enough disinformation and ambiguity so that a large number of black people do not vote for President Biden
,” says Cliff Albright, recalling that supporters of Donald Trump shared false images of black voters supporting the former president,
generated by artificial intelligence
.
Also read: Donald Trump and the galaxy of American conservative media
Although it is becoming more and more aggressive, this strategy is not new. In 2016, Donald Trump encouraged black voters to vote for him by asking them “
What do you have to lose?”
", while accusing Hillary Clinton of wanting to give work to refugees rather than African-Americans. Britain's public broadcaster Channel 4 also revealed that Trump's campaign actively sought to dissuade 3.5 million black Americans in key states from voting by deliberately targeting them with negative Hillary Clinton ads on Facebook. During the following election, in 2020, the billionaire unveiled his “platinum plan” aimed at black Americans, which proposed, among other things, designating the Ku Klux Klan as a terrorist organization and increasing investments in black communities. “
Seducing the black electorate is an old Donald Trump strategy. What is changing is that it is becoming more and more assertive and is pointing out the economic weaknesses of the Biden administration which is suffering from high inflation
,” assures Andra Gillespie.
Growing support for Trump
This strategy could even bear fruit: several recent polls indicate that the Republican candidate is gaining ground among black voters. According to a Quinnipiac poll conducted in February, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump with 79% to 19%, compared to 87% to 12% in 2020. Another poll conducted by the
New York Times
and Siena College in November found that 22% of black voters in six key states planned to vote for Trump in 2024, the most for a Republican in exit polls since 1980.
“
Polls rarely have very large samples of black voters
,” recalls Andra Gillespie. Cliff Albright, who denounces the idea that blacks are moving to the right, says he “
does not see this change
” within his collective.
While negative opinions of Donald Trump appear to have lessened since 2020, the former president remains very unpopular among African-Americans. According to a poll conducted by the
Washington Post
and Ipsos in May 2023, although half of African Americans believe that President Joe Biden's policies have changed nothing for them, 54% of them would be "
angry
" he was elected for a new presidential term. Only 4% say they are enthusiastic.
Negative opinions of Black Americans towards Donald Trump have diminished since 2020. © FMM Graphic Studio
An attempt to “
demobilize
” Black Democrats
Conversely, although the Democrats maintain a considerable advantage over the Republicans among African-Americans, the blue party attracts less and less favor from this minority. Their current lead of 47 points – up from 79 in 2008 – is the smallest Gallup has recorded since 1999.
Republicans see this as a historic opportunity: undermining one of the most reliable Democratic electorates. “
If Joe Biden loses because of black voters, it will not be because of a massive defection to the Republican camp or even probably to the third party
,” points out Andra Gillespie.
In reality, Donald Trump seeks more to demobilize them than to convince them to vote for him
.
These are voters who, if they showed up at the polls, would almost always vote Democratic, but might not do so this time out of dissatisfaction.
»
According to a Gallup poll, while Democrats maintain an advantage over Republicans among black American adults, their support has never been lower than in 2023. © FMM Graphic Studio
The erosion of their support for the Democratic camp could have a seismic effect during the
match between Joe Biden and Donald Trump
on November 5, 2024. Several key states, which oscillate between Democratic and Republican candidates depending on the election, have large populations black like Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. In Georgia, African Americans make up a third of eligible voters. “
What is concerning is that given the narrow margins we have historically seen in these states, it is not necessary for large numbers of Black people to stay home to hurt Joe Biden's chances of winning these States
,” says Andra Gillespie.
In response, Joe Biden is doing everything to avoid seeing the ranks of “Blexit” supporters grow – a movement initiated by Candace Owens which aims to convince Black Americans to leave the Democratic Party. Last August, the outgoing president launched a $25 million ad campaign across historically black media outlets, highlighting low unemployment, reduced child poverty and student loan forgiveness. “
No amount of media deception or liberal racism will sway the minds of Black voters who will vote in November for safer streets, better financial well-being, a secure border and a complete rejection of Joe Biden's disastrous mandate
,” declared Diante Johnson, president of the Federation of Black Conservatives (BCF).
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