The bloody attack on Crocus Hall led to the issue of migrants being put on the discussion table in Parliament (Reuters)

Moscow -

Only days had passed since the attack on the Crocus complex, located on the outskirts of the capital, Moscow, until voices began to rise within the Duma (Parliament) to reconsider the immigration law and introduce amendments to it that would lead to its tightening.

State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin announced the formation of a working group to analyze legislation in the areas of security and migration policy. As for the representative of Crimea, Mikhail Sheremet, he proposed limiting the entry of immigrants as long as the war with Ukraine continues.

These trends were based on the fact that all those arrested on charges of attacking “Crocus” were immigrants from the Central Asian republics, especially Tajikistan.

In recent years, Russia has eased the conditions for immigration and obtaining citizenship, paving the way for the entry of large numbers of citizens of Central Asian countries that suffer from high unemployment rates and very low wages.

According to Interior Ministry statistics, about 3.5 million people entered the country to work in the first half of 2023. For comparison, during the same period in 2022, about 5.8 million foreigners arrived in Russia, indicating a 40% decrease in the flow of migrants.

One of those accused of involvement in the Crocus attack in Moscow inside the courtroom (Reuters)

Negative effects

The main influx of foreigners to Russia with the aim of searching for work comes from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Kazakhstan, compared to a significant decline in the number of immigrants from Ukraine and Moldova and their orientation towards the West.

In the fall of last year, the issue of immigration received negative impacts in light of crimes committed by immigrants against Russian citizens, which were widely covered by local media.

An example of this is the fight that caused an uproar at the time when a group of migrants carried out behavior that the Russian authorities said was provocative against police officers, in Red Square in Moscow.

The Ministry of the Interior acknowledges the increasing rates of crime caused by immigrants, the largest number of whom arrive in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar, Irkutsk, and others. Most often, they are hired to work in the construction, transportation and delivery services sectors.

However, the bloody attack on Crocus put the immigrant issue on the table for discussion, especially with the entry of the security element into it, as well as its economic, demographic and cultural dimensions.

According to the director of the Center for Political Forecasting, Denis Kurkudinov, foreigners who cross the Russian border “automatically become the subject of interest by intelligence services and external forces in order to use them to launch terrorist attacks to destabilize the situation.”

Economic repercussions

He explains - in a comment to Al Jazeera Net - that even foreigners who come with good intentions can be used without their knowledge to harm the Russian people. Therefore, measures must be taken to clarify to public opinion that the state does not tolerate issues that could pose a threat to people’s lives, especially since the recent incident has raised the level of negative perception within society towards immigrants.

The spokesman expects that the new measures will include restricting the entry of migrants into Russia, deportation for “the slightest violation” and the introduction of digital control and surveillance, adding that ensuring the country’s security must not cause a shock to the economy.

Although the numbers of migrants to Russia have risen significantly compared to the period of pandemic restrictions, they have not returned to pre-Covid levels.

In addition, there are no uniform estimates about the volume of immigrants in the Russian labor market. The Ministry of Interior’s data on the number of employment contracts with foreigners indicates about 3 million for the year 2023. If we take into account that the number of the workforce in Russia as a whole is approximately 75 million people, the share of foreigners will be less than 7%.

Although it is impossible to talk about the Russian economy's dependence on immigrants, there is a need for them, according to economist Victor Lashon, who warns that preventing the entry of new immigrants into the country, or reducing those already present, may lead to negative repercussions on the economy.

It also points to the absence of competition from immigrants for local labor due to low unemployment rates, as well as the limited sectors in which immigrants from Central Asia usually work, which are almost limited to simple and low-income professions.

Migrants in Russia often work in simple, low-income professions (Reuters)

Absorbing anger

In Lashon’s opinion, the state is concerned, in all circumstances, in light of the current climate, with showing some kind of action in the face of the wave of anger within society after the “Crocus” events, and at the same time in the face of the increasing criminality rates of immigrants, and the return of the issue of the feasibility of foreign labor to the spotlight.

He pointed out that academic evaluations confirm that the largest percentage of immigrants are low-skilled people who do not know Russian well, and do not have the motivation to culturally integrate with Russian society.

In addition, the speaker considers that any measures of a security nature are not expected to reduce terrorist attacks, because they occurred in the past when immigration to Russia was not as noticeable a phenomenon as it is now.

He continues that the trends of the natural movement of Russia's population and its age structure may turn the demographic factor into a serious problem for the country's social and economic development.

According to his opinion, immigration to Russia did not compensate for the vacuum caused by mass immigration from this country, which largely included people with a high level of education, who left Russia due to military mobilization, inability to work due to sanctions, or the transfer of international and foreign companies to other countries with Its Russian employees, which are estimated to number up to one million people.

Source: Al Jazeera