More than half of Spaniards and a third of socialists believe that the amnesty will bring a new 'procés'

Victor Mondelo Barcelona

Barcelona

Updated Friday, March 29, 2024-22:40

The amnesty law is revealed to be a deeply divisive norm that in no way guarantees "institutional, political and social normalization in Catalonia", as the Government defends, but rather favors the restart of the independence process in the region.

This is evidenced by the Sigma Dos survey for EL MUNDO carried out between March 19 and 26, that is, after the law passed the processing of the Congressional Justice Commission and the president of the Generalitat, Pere

Aragonès

, elections in Catalonia moved forward, already with the certainty that the annulment of the sentences of the convicted and escaped independence leaders was going to be carried out.

According to the survey, carried out based on 1,413 interviews, more than half of Spaniards, specifically

54%

, consider that the amnesty "will allow a new process of self-determination" in Catalonia and, therefore, will foster "social and political disagreement." » in this autonomous community.

Amnesty evolution survey March 30

The diagnosis is very similar among Catalans. 49

%

, according to the demographic sample, agree that the secessionist forces will launch a new order to the State after their representatives have emerged unscathed from the 1-O organization and the unilateral declaration of independence in 2017.

Those surveyed came to this conclusion knowing that

Carles Puigdemont

was going to opt for his "restitution" as president of the Generalitat. The fugitive confirmed this on March 21, while the survey was still underway, and that allowed the participants to see how the moral leader of Junts boasted of having "dragged" the Government to approve the amnesty and begin a supervised negotiation abroad. by a mediator with the unequivocal objective of agreeing on a self-determination referendum for Catalonia.

In the conference given in the French town of Elna, where the ballot boxes from the illegal referendum were hidden, Puigdemont also warned that, if talks with the PSOE failed, he would resume the unilateral route to consummate the secession.

The neoconvergent

's intention

, he stressed, is to lead this new process as president of the Generalitat after having taken advantage of the amnesty to return to Spain without being detained and to be invested by the Parliament.

Respondents were also able to witness how, to compete with Junts, ERC boasted of having held meetings with "international verification" with the Socialists and how its general secretary, the escaped Marta Rovira, claimed to have already begun negotiating with the Government party on referendum, an extreme urgently denied by the PSOE given the proximity of the Catalan elections.

Catalonia amnesty question March 30

The explanations of the socialists do not seem to have convinced all of their voters, however. According to the Sigma Dos poll for this newspaper, a third of the voters who supported

Pedro Sánchez

in the last general elections also predict that the amnesty will lead to the beginning of a new separatist process. Almost 33% believe it.

Up to

56%

of those surveyed who identify with a "left" or "extreme left" ideology see the push for the amnesty as the trigger for a new challenge to the constitutional order, something that is also shared by

61%

of those who they declare "center."

However, none of these circumstances seem to penalize the PSC for the moment, as demonstrated by the survey published by EL MUNDO on March 23 and which predicted a new and comfortable victory for Salvador Illa in the Parliamentary elections, with up to 41 deputies. eight more representatives than in the 2021 contest, from which the socialist has already emerged winner, despite failing to govern.

On the contrary, without knowing the impact of the campaign, both ERC and Junts would see their electoral prospects worsen and they would once again have to settle for a dispute between them to determine which of the two becomes the nationalist force with the most votes.

Beyond the political implications that the amnesty will entail, society's rejection of the measure agreed between the Government and the secessionists to exonerate them of their crimes continues to have a majority social rejection, which remains above

62%

according to the data of Sigma Two.

Opposition to the grace measure rebounds among PSOE voters, going from the

40%

reflected in the previous EL MUNDO survey, published on March 3, to more than

42%

currently. In any case, and beyond the variations between surveys, it is clear that the initiative taken by Sánchez to ensure the support of Catalan separatism for his investiture has split the socialists in two.

Sumar's voter, the second member of the Government, welcomes the amnesty with more enthusiasm, as 67% of

Yolanda Díaz

's voters

say they agree with it

.

While Spaniards who are politically located in the "center" overwhelmingly oppose the law that Puigdemont intends to use to run for the position from which he was deposed in application of article 155 of the Constitution and resume his separatist plan right where he left off. . 74

%

of those surveyed who agree with centrist political positions declare themselves in disagreement with the approval of the amnesty.

Data sheet

Reference population and geographical scope:

People aged 18 and over, residents in Spain with the right to vote.

Information collection technique:

Through the Sigma Dos Panel by Trust Survey. Mixed telephone (CATI) / online (CAWI) / RRSS methodology.

Sample sizes:

1,413 interviews.

Selection of sampling units:

In the telephone interview through random selection of households and application of sex and age quotas in the selection of the last unit. In the case of the panel, proportional allocation has been applied by sex and age group. The distribution of the sample has been proportional by autonomous community in both samples.

Margin of error:

The absolute sampling error can be limited by ±2.8% for a confidence level of 95.5%, and in the assumption of variables with two equally distributed categories.

Field Work Date:

March 19 to 26, 2024

Realization:

SIGMA TWO. Calle Velazquez 50, 6th Floor (28.001-Madrid)

Technical direction:

José Luis Rojo Gil - Ignacio Javier Clemente Sierro