Will the Autonomous Administration in northeastern Syria be an alternative to the Damascus regime?

Since 2017, the Kurdish-majority Autonomous Administration has controlled large areas in northeastern Syria (social media sites)

On December 13, 2023, the Autonomous Administration in northeastern Syria announced the “Social Contract for the Democratic Autonomous Administration of the North and East Syria Region,” which is an advanced step as part of its relentless pursuit to strengthen its control over the region.

This contract included new points, most notably the use of the term “sons, daughters, and peoples of northeastern Syria” instead of “the Syrian Arab Republic,” and not mentioning “Kurdistan,” “Western Kurdistan,” or “federalism,” but rather referring to the areas under the control of the Autonomous Administration. In the "North and East Syria Region".

The contract also defined the geography of self-administration in 7 provinces: Al-Jazeera, Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa, Euphrates, Tabqa, Manbij, Afrin, and Al-Shahba. It focused on women and youth issues, and emphasized the liberation of what it called the “occupied territories,” in reference to Afrin and its environs.

In preparation for holding the elections, which will begin with municipal elections at the end of April 2024, the Autonomous Administration began forming the “High Elections Commission,” which consists of 20 members representing the areas under its control.

It also announced in January 2024 the start of the formation of a court to protect the social contract consisting of 8 to 10 members of judges and legal experts.

Relative success based on fragile foundations

Since 2017, the Kurdish-majority Autonomous Administration has controlled large areas in northeastern Syria, and is classified as “useful Syria” for its richness in energy resources and agricultural areas. It includes most of the governorates of Raqqa and Hasakah, parts of the Aleppo countryside, and Deir ez-Zor governorate.

Since then, the administration has been able to provide a level of security, economy, and autonomy that is relatively better than in areas under regime control.

According to a report by the International Crisis Group entitled “Strengthening Fragile Recovery,” the Autonomous Administration pays salaries 10 times higher than those paid by the regime, and has also been able to restore water and electricity to approximately 70% of the areas it controls, in addition to the state of relative security and the activation of institutions, in Its extreme weakness remained in regime-controlled areas.

According to the report, this success is based primarily on Western support in general and the United States in particular, as the American presence provides the Autonomous Administration with the resources and operational expenses necessary to operate its departments and institutions.

American forces and their allies also provide field support and security and military training to the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Internal Security Forces of the Autonomous Administration, as well as political and diplomatic support in international forums.

On the other hand, the Autonomous Administration project faces dangers represented by ISIS cells, the Assad regime and its local loyalists, Turkey and the factions loyal to it.

According to the report of the Arab Center for Research and Studies entitled “Islamic State in Syria during the year 2023... growing activity and a possible return,” the organization is exploiting Arab citizens’ aversion to the rule of the Kurdish Autonomous Administration to launch attacks targeting checkpoints and members of the Syrian Democratic Forces and Internal Security, as has increased recently. The recent field frictions between the regime forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces, in addition to the continuing Turkish threats to invade the region, such as Operations Olive Branch in 2018 and Operation Peace Spring in 2019.

But the American military presence in the region has so far prevented things from getting out of the Autonomous Administration’s control, as it provides it with field support against ISIS cells, and represents a deterrent factor in front of the Syrian regime and the Turkish army alike.

Obstacles in the road and no guarantees

Despite all of the above, the Self-Administration’s steps towards strengthening its legitimacy and containing the Kurdish-Arab demographic differentiation remain inadequate so far. The Arabs believe that the institutions of the Self-Administration deal with them on the basis of party loyalty, not merit, and that they are using them as a trump card that they may sell to the Assad regime in the framework of any future deal. It allows it to keep Kurdish-majority areas under its control if field and political conditions change in favor of the regime.

On the other hand, the regime is trying to exploit the dissatisfaction of the Arab component in the region, by reassuring the sheikhs of the Arab tribes, trying to win them over, inciting their feelings of oppression, and encouraging them to revolt against “sectarian Kurdish rule.”

This was clearly demonstrated in the confrontations taking place in the villages and towns of the eastern countryside of Deir ez-Zor, specifically, between the Syrian Democratic Forces and Arab tribal militants.

With regard to Turkey, the Autonomous Administration - according to the International Crisis Group report, “Promoting Fragile Recovery” - did not make a real effort to reach a settlement with Ankara that would prevent any ground invasion of the region. Rather, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, affiliated with the Syrian Democratic Forces, continued their attacks against the army. Turkish.

Ankara believes that the relationship of the Syrian Democratic Forces with the PKK poses a threat to Turkish national security, especially with the PKK's continued attacks inside Turkey.

Despite American deterrence in exchange for Turkish threats, the People's Protection Units' continued attacks may force Ankara to expand its military operation in the region.

The People's Protection Units' continued attacks may force Ankara to expand its military operation in the region (Anatolia)

In addition, any American-Turkish understanding may oblige the Syrian Democratic Forces to retreat away from the border with Turkey, and this is possible, especially after the recent American-Turkish understandings regarding Sweden’s membership in NATO and the sale of F-16 aircraft to Turkey.

The Turkish newspaper "Hurriyet" indicated on March 21 that these understandings may be followed by discussions between the two sides regarding the Syrian file, as Ankara wants Washington to stop its support for the Kurdish People's Protection Units, and to adhere to the 2019 agreement, which stipulates the removal of the Kurdish units by 30 kilometers. On the Syrian-Turkish border.

Functional role

It is expected that the Autonomous Administration will maintain its presence as long as Western support for it continues. Although it wants to establish its own project according to its own program, it is in the eyes of the United States and its Western allies a functional tool to achieve specific interests.

Therefore, France views the Syrian Democratic Forces and the proximity of their positions to the Turkish army’s positions as a trump card that can be used to put pressure on Ankara, and this is the same policy that Washington follows in the region to this day.

The Syrian Democratic Forces are also a factor in controlling the region, preventing the return of ISIS there, as the international coalition forces led by the United States fear the return of the organization in light of the escalation in the activity of its cells.

Weakness of the home front

The most prominent threat to this project is the fragility of its internal front. Despite the announced social contract, the separatist logic based on the victory of Kurdish nationalism prevails over the performance of the Autonomous Administration, according to a research paper published by the Edraak Center for Studies and Consultations entitled “A Reading of the Social Contract of the Autonomous Administration.”

The influence of Kurdish party cadres overwhelms the administrative decision-making mechanism, as specialized Arab employees lose their jobs and positions in favor of unqualified Kurdish figures, for no other reason than their association with the Kurdish People’s Protection Units or the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.

In 2021, the Syrian Democratic Forces also began imposing compulsory conscription on young people in Arab-majority cities, such as Raqqa and Manbij, and this included - according to the International Crisis Group report - teachers and medical staff.

In cities with a Kurdish majority, the Autonomous Administration replaced the school curricula approved by the Damascus regime with Kurdish ones, which reinforces the separatist nationalist logic on which the Autonomous Administration project is based.

The policies of the Autonomous Administration enhance the state of resentment and discontent among the Arab component in the region, which may constitute an explosive factor in the relative stability there.

These policies leave a vacuum that can be exploited by the Assad regime, Turkey, and ISIS cells alike, which weakens the position of the Autonomous Administration, its legitimacy, and its administrative and institutional work.

Therefore, the possibility of the Autonomous Administration succeeding as a realistic alternative to Bashar al-Assad’s regime remains remote until now, in light of the West’s treatment of it as a functional tool, the disconnect between its internal policies and its media propaganda, and the possibility of escalation remaining present until now.

Source: Al Jazeera