Local elections are considered a warning election for the government, according to analysts (EPA-EFE)
Ankara -
The upcoming local elections in Turkey, which will be held on March 31, will witness a competition of 1,53 candidates belonging to 34 parties, seeking to win positions in 81 provinces and 972 provinces. The unofficial results will be announced on the same night.
It is expected that the participation rate in the upcoming elections will be partly low, shortly after the presidential and parliamentary elections that took place in May 2023, as specialists believe that voters are tired of organizing elections, and that participation in the ballot boxes may be low due to the impact of the month of Ramadan. .
The elections are generally held between the Republican People's Party and the Justice and Development Party, and both parties work hard to maintain this current distribution. However, different parties may win in many states, such as Adana, Bursa, Antalya, Edirne, Eskişehir, Yalova, and others, in the last moments, given the closeness of the votes. Significantly.
It will be very difficult to know how much parties lost or gained due to alliances in the elections, however, parties whose number of municipalities decreased will be considered unsuccessful in the elections.
Murat Kurum is running in the municipal elections in Istanbul as a candidate for the ruling Justice and Development Party (Anatolia)
Warning elections
Hakan Bayrakci, owner of the Sonar Research Center, who predicted the presidential elections with very good accuracy, says, “I have analyzed elections and research for 35 years, and I have noticed that local elections are a warning election for the government, which citizens use to warn the government about issues they are dissatisfied with.”
He explains, "In these elections, there are 3 important issues that citizens complain about: the high cost of living, the salaries of retirees, corruption and bribery accusations. Reactions to these issues will appear at the ballot boxes. However, I do not expect a major loss of votes and the loss of municipalities in general in the ranks of power." ".
Currently, state municipalities are distributed among parties as follows:
Justice and Development Party 39 municipalities.
CHP 21 municipalities.
National Movement Party 11 municipalities.
Democratic Party 8 municipalities.
Communist Party of Turkey 1 municipality.
Eye on Istanbul
All of Turkey's attention is focused on the elections in Istanbul, as it is the most important city in the country, witnessing a fierce battle between the opposition parties and the ruling party for the mayor's office.
In the previous elections, the mayor of Istanbul and member of the Republican People's Party, Ekrem Imamoglu, won and became a well-known political representative nationwide, and it is expected that he will be the opposition candidate - definitively - in the presidential elections, which will be held in 2028, if he wins this election. Elections, while the Justice and Development Party seeks to regain the city that it ruled for 25 years, through the nomination of former Reconstruction Minister Murat Kurum.
The head of Method Research, Cengiz Kilic, said, according to the latest opinion poll he conducted, that “the situation between the candidates is equal,” explaining, “Two important candidates from the Republican People’s Party and the Justice and Development Party are competing in Istanbul, and in the latest poll that we conducted this week, we noticed that Each candidate received a close percentage of the votes.”
He added, "In addition to the possible errors in the poll, we can say that each candidate has an equal chance. If no major development occurs in the last week, the results will be like this. We can say that the winning candidate will win with a small margin of votes."
In his answer to the question of why people focus on the Istanbul elections in Turkey, Kilic answered, “Istanbul is not only an important city in Turkey, but it is one of the most important cities in the world. The person who is mayor here becomes one of the active politicians throughout Turkey, and is also well-known.” In the world, and just as the current Turkish President Erdogan was previously the mayor of Greater Istanbul, the winning competitor in these elections will have an impact in the future on the political arena in Turkey.”
Ekrem Imamoglu won the position of mayor of Istanbul for the Republican People's Party in the last municipal elections (French)
Chance Imamoglu
On the other hand, other opinion polls conducted in Istanbul show a diversity of opinions. In Hakan Bayrakci’s statement to Al Jazeera Net, he says, “According to the field research that I conducted, I see that Ekrem Imamoglu will finish the elections in the lead. I have not yet calculated the amount of difference in votes, but it seems I have assurances that he will lead the elections, provided that a major political crisis or important event does not occur, the result will not change, and Imamoglu will win, in my opinion.”
Regarding his opinion regarding the expected loss of the AKP candidate, Bayrakci explained, “General problems affect the Istanbul elections. Four general reasons can be identified:
High costs of living.
The reaction shown by retirees to their salary increase.
Reaction to accusations of corruption and bribery.
Wrong moves in the election campaign of candidate Murat Kurum.
In addition to the secret alliances that the opposition made between its components, which increased Imamoglu’s votes more than expected.”
Welfare Party surprise
"Due to the high cost of living and economic problems, voters will be willing to give a warning to the ruling party, without significant losses in votes. We also see that some parties in the opposition will increase their votes, for example the New Welfare Party," said Cengiz Kilic, head of the Maidan Research Center.
The New Welfare Party, founded by Fatih Erbakan, the son of the former prime minister, surprised people by obtaining about 3% of the votes in the previous elections, and in this election, the party made remarkable steps, by transferring some dissatisfied candidates from the AKP, as well as It is rumored that it may cause it to lose some states due to attracting votes from the Justice and Development Party, instead of increasing its votes in the upcoming elections on March 31.
Analyst Bayrakci refers in particular to the number of votes that the New Welfare Party obtained in the Istanbul elections, saying, “What caught my attention greatly in Istanbul is the number of votes that the New Welfare Party obtained. They are working hard, and extracting most of the votes from the Justice and Development Party. They have become a party Influencing the balance of elections in Istanbul.”
Source: Al Jazeera