According to UNICEF, 90% of children under the age of five in the Gaza Strip suffer from one or more infectious diseases (French)

Occupied Jerusalem -

Epidemiologists have warned of severe famine and epidemics that will kill Gazans and thousands of wounded without treatment who may lose their lives after the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip entered its 175th day, and the tight siege imposed by the occupation army authorities on the Strip and their prevention of the entry of humanitarian aid.

According to United Nations data, during the month of January, about 100 aid trucks entered the southern Gaza Strip daily, while dealing with the hunger crisis requires about 500 food trucks daily. By the end of last January, the number of trucks decreased to 66 per day.

In recent months, Israel has refused to bring food supplies into the northern Gaza Strip through the Beit Hanoun (Erez) crossing, and also prevents relief organizations from transporting Israeli food supplies of any kind into Gaza, even infant formula.

Epidemics and hunger

Regarding the worsening humanitarian crisis and the spread of famine, senior epidemiologists estimated in a report to the newspaper "Haaretz" that if the humanitarian crisis continues in Gaza, the number of deaths due to epidemics and famine will reach 100,000 Palestinians during the summer months, and if the crisis worsens, it is expected that there will be more than 120. A thousand victims.

Francisco Cecchi, professor of epidemiology and international health at the London School of Hygiene, warned of the consequences of the worsening humanitarian crisis and the spread of famine in the Gaza Strip, saying, “I have been conducting research on humanitarian crises for 20 years, and I have not seen such rates of hunger even in Somalia, where I worked.” ".

“The most worrying thing now is hunger,” Sici told Haaretz. “If the amount of food entering the Gaza Strip remains the same and does not actually increase in the coming days, we will reach catastrophic levels of hunger.”

According to the professor of epidemiology and international health, the amount of calories per person in the Gaza Strip is currently less than the minimum that was during the worst days of the Somali famine.

He stressed that the world must seriously understand and be aware that "the amount of humanitarian aid and food currently entering Gaza is not sufficient for human survival. Our data show this, and the first cases of death due to hunger have already been recorded in the field as well."

Collaboration and research

Cecchi has teamed up in recent weeks with Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health Director Dr. Paul Spiegel, and together they head a group of epidemiologists seeking to shed light on excess deaths in the Gaza Strip.

According to a complex model prepared by the group, even if the war ended tomorrow and the residents of the Gaza Strip received all the required humanitarian aid, 6,500 people are expected to die from injuries, infectious diseases and hunger.

In addition to the interim statistics that indicate that more than 32,500 people have already been martyred and about 5,000 are missing buried under the rubble, it seems that the war will not end with less than 44,000 casualties.

Scenarios and estimates

However, the team led by Cecchi and Spiegel examined two additional scenarios: if the Israeli army launches attacks on Rafah and the crisis worsens in the coming months.

According to this scenario, the number of deaths is expected to exceed 85,000 people, and in total the toll in the Gaza Strip will reach more than 120,000 people.

But even without the Rafah operation, if the war is prolonged until mid-summer and the humanitarian crisis remains as it is, the model predicts excess deaths of 58,000 people, or about 100,000 casualties in total.

Although data on the number of deaths in the Gaza Strip is published by the Hamas Ministry of Health, as the newspaper says, specialists in Israel talk about similar numbers.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself recently estimated that 13,000 Hamas militants have been killed so far, and that the ratio of civilians killed is 1 to 1.5 per militant. Thus, it is inferred even from Israeli estimates that the total number of civilian deaths in Gaza ranges between 26,000 and 32,000. And 500.

Factors and data

Regarding the missing population of Gaza, Hamas reported 8,500 people, adding that this was likely an underestimate. However, the Red Cross - which conducts its own monitoring based on reports from relatives - lists 5,100 people as missing.

The number of missing people is not always mentioned alongside the number of dead, and excess deaths as a result of the humanitarian crisis, the collapse of health systems, hunger and malnutrition are not counted, and Secchi believes that the numbers that emerge from his model and that of his colleagues should also be taken into account.

Professor of Epidemiology and International Health, Sichi, says, “The amount of data that we entered into the system is enormous and abundant. It begins with death data in Gaza before October 7, which formed the basis. That is why we added various recent data, such as the spread of water and food, and overcrowding in the southern Strip.” Gaza, how many medical systems are still functioning, and how many oxygen cylinders are currently available in Gaza for medical treatment, as the scenarios were created based on this data.”

Diseases and deaths

According to the study, the most common cause of excess deaths is injuries resulting from bombings, as there are currently 74,000 wounded in Gaza receiving very partial medical care.

During the war, 36 hospitals and 100 clinics and other health institutions were damaged. The health system in the Gaza Strip suffers from a severe shortage of equipment and medicines, as well as a shortage of medical staff.

Dr. Raslan Abu Steyeh, a doctor from Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza, described in an online meeting with Harvard Medical School staff how he and his colleagues had to perform many amputations without anesthesia and without painkillers.

The second cause of excess deaths is infectious diseases that are already spreading in the Strip. The World Health Organization indicated that children in temporary tent cities suffer from diarrhea at rates 23 times higher than on normal days, exposing them to the risk of dehydration and death.

In addition, there is an increase in cases of respiratory infections, chicken pox, skin diseases and urinary tract infections.

According to the General National Congress, which operates under the auspices of UNICEF, 90% of children under the age of five in the Gaza Strip suffer from one or more infectious diseases.

Source: Al Jazeera + Haaretz