Interview

Municipal elections in Turkey: “In Diyarbakir, there is an overwhelming domination of the pro-Kurdish party”

In Türkiye, municipal elections are being held this Sunday, March 31. Interview with Aurélien Denizeau, doctor in international relations and specialist in Turkey, on the weight of the pro-Kurdish DEM party in the south-east of the country.

In Diyarbakir, the pro-Kurdish party DEM could win 60 to 70% of the votes, estimates researcher Aurélien Denizeau (illustration). AP - Metin Yoksu

By: Oriane Verdier Follow

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Turks are invited to go to the polls this Sunday March 31 during the municipal elections. According to opinion polls, Istanbul and Ankara should remain in the hands of the main opposition party, the CHP. In the southeastern areas with a Kurdish majority, the DEM, former HDP and third force in Parliament, is expected to capture many towns. Aurélien Denizeau, doctor in international relations and specialist in

Turkey

, is in Diyarbakir, a city considered the historical and cultural capital of the Kurdish community, to follow the progress of the election.

RFI: In what context were these elections prepared in the south-east of Turkey?

Aurélien Denizeau:

In Diyarbakir, there is overwhelming domination in electoral terms by the pro-Kurdish party. The former HDP which was threatened with ban and which became the DEM party could easily win 60 to 70% of the votes in Diyarbakir. But there is always the risk that some of its mayors, once elected, will be accused of complacency with terrorism by the Turkish government, and that the latter will relieve them of their functions and replace them with administrators, as has already been done. made during the last period and which is a real reason for anger and concern here.

Read alsoTurkey: as the vote approaches, the municipal elections arouse little enthusiasm

These recurring dismissals of DEM elected officials have not dampened the motivation of voters?

There is a shared feeling. On the one hand, there has indeed been some discouragement, especially after the opposition's failure last year in national elections. But when you talk with DEM executives or with activists, there is the feeling that this time they can succeed in taking back control of local politics. Particularly because after many years, the administrators appointed by the government to replace the mayors turned out to be rather incompetent. There is overall dissatisfaction among the population with these administrators, including from conservative voters who might vote for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but who are not happy with these local managers. And so, there is hope within the DEM that Recep Tayyip Erdogan will choose to calm the situation by this time leaving the elected mayors in place.

A woman and a boy on a balcony behind election banners of the pro-Kurdish HDP party in Diyarbakir, southeastern Turkey, on the eve of early parliamentary elections on October 31, 2015. REUTERS/Sertac Kayar

Is the DEM still in an alliance logic at the national level?

The alliances did not work. They were even rather counterproductive last year, and everyone learned their lessons. The nationalists, the Kemalists, just like the DEM. The latter explain that rather than an alliance policy which often consisted of making ideological concessions on all sides and which was criticized by their voters, they prefer that everyone now participate with their own party. At the same time, there are rumors, a general feeling, according to which the DEM would position itself as arbiter and negotiate both with Recep Tayyip Erdogan and with the Kemalist opposition to try to obtain as many advantages as possible.

The southeast region was partly hit by a devastating earthquake a little over a year ago. Does this have any effect on elections?

It is quite complicated to calculate exactly the consequences of the earthquake. It seems that there were not many in the last national elections. This is quite complicated for several reasons. The first reason is that many people who could have talked about it – academics, politicians – are no longer there, have moved away. The second reason is that if manipulations are carried out during rehousing, they are obviously quite taboo and therefore it is difficult to talk about it. The problem is that very often these accusations of rehousing are based on very localized examples. That does not mean that it does not exist, but there are not yet empirical studies that allow us to see to what extent this may have modified the demography of the regions.

In Adiyaman, an 8-story building collapsed. Behind the carpet, the body of a man, found dead. © Cerise Sudry-Le Dû/RFI

Also read: Earthquake in Turkey: one year later, officials still spared from justice

That said, what we see in any case is that overall, the scores for example of the pro-Kurdish party have not changed enormously in the regions hit by the earthquake. So, for the moment, we have not yet observed a real change on the electoral map. If relocations and replacements were made, they perhaps allowed, for example, Recep Tayyip Erdogan's party to indeed gain advantages in terms of votes, but in this case on a truly micro scale, without any we are still observing the effects at the macro level.

A DEM official explained to me that there were no major changes in voters in Diyarbakir for example, but that in certain small villages, the government had relocated entire families of civil servants and Turkish soldiers to change the map. electoral. Changes which obviously worry the residents concerned. This rehousing process began after the 2015 clashes between the Turkish army and the PKK. It continued with the arrival of Syrians also fleeing the war. But obviously, it is a policy that gained in intensity with the earthquake.

This Sunday, election day, what are the main variables that you will observe?

Regionally, in the southeast, there are a few things to watch out for. The first is of course the DEM score. The higher the score, the more legitimacy there will be for its elected representatives and therefore the difficulty in replacing them. The second element is Recep Tayyip Erdogan's score because he has always had a conservative electorate in the Kurdish regions. Does he continue to have this electorate or is there going to be a sanction vote against them?

The third element, a little less important but which can be interesting, is to observe the score of the Hüda Par. Hüda Par is the Kurdish Islamist party allied to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He is very present to say in Diyarbakir today. Not in terms of voting at the moment, but its posters and activists are really everywhere. We have the feeling that the government sent this party to recover conservative votes. Normally, it is a party that does not exceed 1%, but if it makes a breakthrough in Diyarbakir, that would mean that this strategy has worked.

Read also Municipal elections in Turkey: voters dissatisfied with galloping inflation

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