How Boko Haram, far from being weakened, strengthened around Lake Chad
A study conducted by the International Crisis Group on the balance of power between jihadist groups in northeastern Nigeria reveals that, despite the death of its leader Abubakar Shekau in May 2021, the JAS faction he led managed to consolidate its positions on the edges of Lake Chad.
A Boko Haram flag (Illustrative image). © AFP/STEPHANE YAS
By: RFI Follow
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Boko Haram
fighters
continue to give the Islamic State in West Africa (ISWAP) group a hard time and threaten civilian populations, even as Nigeria
attempts
to close IDP camps in the state of Borno.
After the invasion of the Sambisa forest and the death of the historic leader of Boko Haram Abubakar Shekau, the JAS fighters who were loyal to him retreated to the islands of Lake Chad and the Mandara Mountains, on the Cameroonian border.
Threatened with disappearing, the movement has on the contrary consolidated, explains Vincent Foucher, researcher at the CNRS and author of this recent report: “
JAS has taken control of important areas, it holds them well, it is well established. These are people who are used to fighting on the lake, in this lake swamp context. They are very, very strong elsewhere in Borno State. We see JAS more solid and we see on the Chad side, on the Niger side a little too and on the Cameroon side, many attacks against civilians at a very high level.
»
Uncertain balance of power
Having found itself in difficulty, the Islamic State group in West Africa is experiencing tensions: “
The defeat raises suspicions and concerns. We start looking for traitors everywhere, whether within the movement or among the civilians surrounding it. And then the movement must rebuild its tax base. It’s a movement that works by taxing agricultural production
.”
The security situation remains very degraded despite the efforts of the Nigerian authorities to close the camps for displaced people in the Borno region: “
We have had redisplacements: people who had been brought back, resettled then who were forced to move again because They were too threatened.
»
While the balance of power remains very uncertain, the ICG recommends maintaining humanitarian aid and placing renewed emphasis on military cooperation in the region.
Release of more than 300 prisoners, cleared of any link with Boko Haram
Due to lack of evidence, 313 people, mostly men who were languishing in army jails, were handed over to the local government. These men and women were suspected of being active fighters in the pay of the insurgents. But a court in Borno state ultimately concluded that they were ordinary civilians.
These people were captured by the Nigerian army during raids against Boko Haram jihadists, at the height of the jihadist insurgency, between 2012 and 2015, before being incarcerated in Giwa Barracks prison.
This military detention center with a sordid reputation was initially supposed to accommodate prisoners temporarily, while they were brought before the courts. But dozens of civilians spent years there, without even knowing the reason for their arrest.
In recent years, the idea of emptying prisons and working for the reintegration of former Boko Haram fighters and their hostages has gained ground in Nigeria.
According to CNRS researcher Vincent Foucher, it is not impossible that veterans are present in the released group, but it is a favorable development for civilians locked up without reasons or proof.
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