Experts confirm that Biden has tools to influence Israel, but it is not certain that he will use them (Reuters)

Washington -

Since the start of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, the Joe Biden administration has worked closely with the government of Benjamin Netanyahu to support the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip politically, militarily and at all levels.

As the six-month anniversary of the offensive approaches, neither the United States nor Israel has adequately answered key strategic questions about the conflict, including how to define victory over the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), how to address the growing humanitarian crisis for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and what it considers Both countries have a realistic outcome when the war ends.

The United States’ abstention from voting on Security Council Resolution No. 2728 calling for an immediate cessation of fighting sent messages of dissatisfaction from Biden with the path followed by the Netanyahu government, especially its pledge to storm the city of Rafah by land, which is considered the last refuge for more than a million Palestinians who were displaced there from the north and center. Gaza strip.

Reports indicate that Washington threatens to blow up the ruling coalition in Israel, forcing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to relinquish power, abandon the ground assault on Rafah, and hold early elections.

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The call for early elections in Israel is an acknowledgment by the Biden administration and Democratic leaders, such as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, that Netanyahu's decision-making process is driven by calculations of ensuring his political survival.

Some observers considered the recent vote in the UN Security Council to be a change in Washington's calculations, and a major warning to Netanyahu to re-evaluate his political calculations in view of the changes in Washington's calculations.

In this context, international affairs expert and lecturer at the University of South Florida, Arman Mahmoudian, says, “Washington’s call to hold early elections in Israel is based on the hope that the new government will be more open to a political solution regarding Gaza.”

Meanwhile, Professor Osama Khalil, head of the International Relations Program at Syracuse University in upstate New York, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that "the United States has a range of options available to put pressure on Israel, including imposing new elections, if it so chooses."

He added, "However, President Biden has not yet proven that he is interested in adopting a more aggressive stance toward Netanyahu and Israel. This was evident in the weakening of the UN Security Council resolution issued last Monday and the immediate attempts by the White House and State Department to claim that it is non-binding."

Khalil considered that "focusing attention on the clear personal tensions between Netanyahu and Biden is a distraction from the larger and deeper coordination between the United States and Israel in Gaza, which has continued despite growing international condemnation of the war. This coordination will continue whether the Netanyahu government collapses or not."

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Ambassador David Mack, the former US Assistant Secretary of State for Middle Eastern Affairs who previously worked at his country’s consulate in Jerusalem, indicated that the Biden administration “prefers a new government headed by someone closer to the center of the Israeli public. It is likely to find someone like This government has shared strategic goals with the United States government.”

Ambassador Mack added that Washington takes seriously "opinion polls that indicate that Netanyahu and the Likud Party will likely lose in any early elections."

When asked whether Washington had the tools to overthrow the Israeli government, Ambassador Mack responded by saying, "It may happen, but Washington would prefer to see Israeli leaders step forward and carry out this task themselves."

Biden tools

International affairs expert Arman Mahmoudian, speaking to Al Jazeera Net, believes that the United States, as the main military supporter of Israel, which provides approximately $3.3 billion in military aid annually, has great influence on Israel.

However, taking advantage of this influence could lead to a major social and political backlash within the United States, and even within the Democratic Party, according to the spokesman.

As Israel's most strategic ally, Mahmoudian adds, Washington has great political influence in Israel, where it maintains links with various Israeli political factions. The academic believes that "it is important to realize that the alliance with the United States has provided Israel with a sense of security and protection, which many Israelis are reluctant to expose to danger."

In theory, the Biden administration has many tools through which it can push Israel to change its policies. The most important of these tools are stopping arms and ammunition shipments to Israel, stopping intelligence cooperation, voting against Israel in the Security Council, and many other tools.

However, due to the complexities and depth of the relations between the two countries, no one, according to observers, imagines that Washington will resort to these tools to change the policies of one of the most important allies of the United States in the world.

Biden's electoral calculations

Brian Katulis, a former official in several US administrations and an expert at the Middle East Institute in Washington, wrote in the institute’s blog that “the escalating public exchange between the Biden administration and the Netanyahu government addresses the internal public in both countries.”

President Biden's strong and early support for Netanyahu and Israel has led to a rift between the Democratic Party establishment and the base, especially young voters and minorities, as the number of Palestinian martyrs rises to more than 32,000 people, and the war approaches its seventh month, Katulis says.

The expert adds that as the US elections approach, the political desires of Republicans to exploit the Gaza issue to their advantage are increasing. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said last week that he plans to invite the Israeli prime minister to deliver a speech before Congress, a move that would widen the differences between the Israeli government and the Biden administration.

For his part, international affairs expert Mahmoudian considers that “it is difficult to fully ascertain the goals of the Biden administration, as it is clear that the political orientation of the Israeli government is not in line with Biden’s vision for the Middle East. It is in Biden’s political interest for the conflict in Gaza to end before the presidential election campaign intensifies.” .

Moreover, Biden may be concerned about the war's impact on young people and other first-time voters, especially those in Generation Z.

Source: Al Jazeera