Is a “cloud war” possible?
Around fifty countries carry out “
seeding
”, a molecular manipulation of clouds to make them rain in the event of drought or to avoid potentially devastating precipitation, such as hail. But in times of climate change, these techniques could become a source of geopolitical tensions, while the long-term health and environmental consequences are not known.
“There is a real risk of cloud war,” according to Mathieu Simonet. dpa/picture alliance via Getty I - picture alliance
By: Stefanie Schüler Follow
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Since the dawn of time, clouds have been a source of hope or, on the contrary, harbingers of misfortune. Since the 1940s, states have been trying to tame these accumulations of water droplets suspended in the atmosphere. Seeding involves injecting silver iodide. The droplets then concentrate around these micro-salts and form water drops which then fall to the ground.
Although the effectiveness of this method is not unanimous within the scientific community, it is nonetheless used in around fifty countries today, from France
to
India via Australia and
Madagascar.
“
Over the past five years, we have seen an acceleration in cloud seeding across the world. There are more and more new techniques, more and more countries manipulating clouds
,” notes Mathieu Simonet, ex-lawyer and author of
The End of the Clouds
, published by Julliard. “
Recently,
China
invested a billion dollars in research around cloud seeding
.”
In 1966, the American army launched Operation Popeye over
Vietnam
: tons of silver iodide to intensify the monsoon and thus slow down Ho Chi Minh's troops. A hitherto unprecedented act of war which pushed the United Nations to adopt, in 1976, the ENMOD Convention. The signatory countries undertake not to use clouds as a weapon of war against other signatory countries. “
Russia
has signed the ENMOD Convention
.
France did not sign it
,” explains Mathieu Simonet. “
So in theory, Russia would not contravene the 1976 Convention if it decided, for example, to create rain for the inauguration of the Olympic Games in Paris
.”
Read alsoMadagascar: artificial rain to fight drought
Clouds: a geopolitical issue in the era of climate emergency
But even manipulating clouds for civilian purposes can cause tensions. As water resources become scarcer in the wake of climate change, a country that has the means can theoretically rain clouds on its territory that would otherwise have rained down on a neighboring country. In this context, clouds risk becoming an object of propaganda. As in 2018 when “
an Iranian general accused Israel of having stolen clouds
”, recalls Mathieu Simonet for whom “
this example clearly shows that there is a real risk of cloud war if, at any given moment, there is has a fire. Fortunately, at the time, the head of Iranian weather immediately contradicted the Iranian general's position. But if the Iranian weather boss had gone in the same direction as the Iranian general, it could have had potentially dramatic consequences
.”
Mathieu Simonet is one of those who demand that France ratify the 1976 ENMOD Convention, but who also believe that the United Nations should propose international regulations on cloud seeding. The writer would even like to go further: “
We all have an intimate relationship with the clouds. Each of us has already lain on our backs to watch them
.” While unlike the sea, the land, the air spaces, or even just space, clouds do not have any legal status, Mathieu Simonet and others are mobilizing to ensure that they are included in the world heritage of the Unesco.
Also read: South Africa: seeding clouds to combat drought?
A parliamentary commission in France?
Although this approach could take time due to its legal complexity, Mathieu Simonet, with others, would like, to begin with, for the National Assembly to take up the question of sowing in France. Because the medium and long-term health and environmental consequences of the use of silver iodide are not known. However, to make decisions and regulate sowing, it would first be necessary to improve knowledge, including that of the general public, believes the former lawyer. “
There is very little scientific work on the issue. It therefore seems extremely important to me that there is a parliamentary commission. “It could take stock of what we know and what we don’t know about clouds and determine what studies should be launched
.”
On the occasion of the third international day of clouds, this Friday, Mathieu Simonet and the public affairs consultancy firm, Koz, led an action around the National Assembly this Wednesday in order to raise awareness among elected officials of the need to supervise the practice of cloud seeding. “
We wanted to challenge public authorities on the health, environmental, climate and geopolitical issues linked to clouds
,” underlines Nayla Khebibeche, consultant within the Koz firm. “
Cloud seeding is very little known. As a result, most MPs initially received our approach as something crazy. But when they understand the multiple issues, they take a serious interest in it
.”
Clouds or the possibility of doing politics differently
The writer Mathieu Simonet wants to see in the clouds the possibility of doing politics differently. “
Today, in politics, everyone is convinced that they are right, everyone sticks to their positions
,” he notes. “
However, when it comes to clouds, we still understand very little about how they work. This requires us to praise doubt, to work in a multidisciplinary manner. We have a necessarily collective modesty, coupled with a shared wonder at the clouds that comes to us from childhood. It’s as if we had a blank page that allowed us to think about how to debate, to apply the principle of adversarialism, to feel our way, to work together
.”
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