The Basque Government predicts a tie of 29 seats between PNV and Bildu while the PSOE and the PP would repeat the results of 2020

Josean Izarra Vitoria

Victoria

Updated Wednesday, March 27, 2024-11:45

The PNV has managed to focus the long Basque pre-campaign on a "duel for two" with EH Bildu, and according to the latest poll by Urkullu's Executive, it paralyzes its electoral decline. The pre-election survey released today by Lehendakaritza estimates that the two nationalist parties would tie at 29 seats with EH Bildu as the leading force in both Gipuzkoa and Álava. Sumar and Podemos, who compete separately, would be the most affected because only Yolanda Díaz's Basque party would win a seat for Gipuzkoa while Irene Belarra's coalition would be left out of the Basque Parliament.

The latest electoral poll by the Urkullu Executive consolidates the tie between PNV and Bildu that all polls, including the one published by EL MUNDO, anticipate in the Basque elections of 21-A. The data was collected between March 15 and 20, a period in which the celebration of Korrika allowed the nationalist left to have a special role. In addition to the demand for Basque, Covite confirmed that on at least 60 occasions photographs of imprisoned ETA members were displayed. The PNV counteracted the prominence of the Abertzale left and its related organizations with a very extensive follow-up of the EiTB race that institutionalized its development at the cost of multiplying its prominence until last Sunday when the race ended in Bayonne (France).

In the poll made public today, the PNV achieves up to 29 parliamentarians (it obtained 31 in 2020) and marks a turning point towards a possible comeback with Imanol Pradales as a candidate. The PNV lists in Gipuzkoa and Álava would achieve 9 seats and 11 in Bizkaia. Bildu, for its part, would tie at 9 seats in Álava -but with a higher percentage of the vote-, would reach 11 representatives in Gipuzkoa and would rise to 9 in Bizkaia.

The two nationalist forces that advocate for a 'new Basque sovereign status' and demand the recognition of Euskadi as a nation would obtain 77% of the 75 seats in the Basque Parliament. However, governance from 21-A will be in the hands of the PSE-EE which, with its 10 parliamentarians, rules out supporting Bildu and is willing to reissue the coalition agreements with the PNV in the Basque Government that they have maintained since 2016.

The socialists would repeat the result of 2020 without being able to capitalize in the Basque elections on the victory obtained in the general elections of July 2023 when they were the acronym with the most votes in Euskadi. Nor would the Basque PP, according to this survey, improve its results to remain in the 6 seats.

Sumar and Podemos pay for their inability to reach an agreement and present themselves as a coalition. If in 2020, this 'left-wing space' obtained 6 parliamentarians, the Basque Government's electoral survey predicts only one parliamentarian. The decline in the Podemos and Sumar polls has accelerated after the failure of both parties in Galicia, where they also ran on different lists and were left out of the regional Parliament.