In Mexico City, the fear of water shortages has infiltrated the daily lives of residents. The specter of “day zero”, this fateful date when the taps will remain dry, now hangs over the Mexican capital. Since the start of the year, hundreds of neighborhoods have already been faced with cuts or even a complete absence of running water, forcing the authorities to organize emergency distributions by tanker trucks.

The cause is the “reduction of flow in the Cutzamala system”, a network of dams which provides 25% of the water in the city and its surroundings, according to Sacmex, which manages water distribution in the capital. The reservoirs which supply it have suffered from the lack of rain over the last three years. According to a recent report from the National Water Commission (Conagua), the Cutzamala system has fallen to the lowest level in its history in recent months, with only 36.2% of its capacity filled as of March 19.

If the level continues its dizzying fall, the authorities no longer rule out the possibility of a total cutoff in the water supply. “Day zero” could occur as early as June 26, according to a Conagua official.

“Unprecedented” situation

A perspective which is, however, only the logical consequence, among other things, of a prolonged drought. Since 2000, the megadrought that has raged between the southwest of the United States and northern Mexico – including Mexico City – has been one of the longest in history, according to a study led by the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) in 2022. “The exceptional duration of this drought, unprecedented for 1,200 years, raises the question of whether these are permanent climatic conditions and no longer temporary,” analyzes Pascal Girot, director of the School of Geography of the University of Costa Rica. “This situation will only get worse due to the effects of climate change.”

In addition to climate disruption which makes droughts more intense and heat waves more violent, the return of the natural climatic phenomenon El Niño in 2023 has accentuated the crisis in Mexico. The already short rainy season was further reduced, making it impossible to replenish the city's vital water reserves. This year, the rainy season should not begin until the end of May.

A dog wanders on the dry banks of the Miguel-Aleman dam, in Valle de Bravo, about a hundred kilometers from Mexico City, March 14, 2024. According to Mexico's National Water Commission, the Valle de Bravo reservoir does not is more than 29% of its capacity – a historically low level – while a year ago it was at 52%. © Marco Ugarte, AP

Another important element is added to the equation: poor management of water resources. “Faced with the decrease in surface water reserves, local governments, municipalities and companies are exploiting groundwater at a frantic pace,” deplores Pascal Girot, citing in particular certain dairy and cattle industries located in arid areas. “This creates serious sanitation problems and threatens the very availability of groundwater. Faced with water scarcity, the country must rethink its agricultural development strategies.”

Other practices that pose problems at the scale of Mexico include "the low level of treatment of wastewater which contaminates the bodies of water used for their final discharge at sea, the non-use of rainwater, the leaks in water networks, which fluctuate between 35 and 38% of the total volume distributed, as well as disordered urban growth", lists Fabiola Sosa Rodriguez, head of the growth and environment research group at the Autonomous University Metropolitan Mexico City. “As long as these issues are not resolved, conflicts between different water users are to be feared.”

For their part, the authorities encourage people to save water. Sacmex has set up a platform, entitled Water in your neighborhood, to inform residents of the cuts. The Ministry of the Environment (Sedema) for its part launched a rainwater harvesting program, reports El Pais. Gutters, pipes, leaf filters, disinfection systems and tanks can be provided free of charge to residents of municipalities with the highest levels of water scarcity and socio-economic vulnerability.

Divide between poor and rich

In this megalopolis built 500 years ago on a huge lake, residents must therefore be patient before a possible miraculous rain which would fill the reservoirs. Among the 20 million inhabitants living in Mexico City and its metropolitan area, not all face the same situation. “The poorest neighborhoods, perched on the heights of Mexico City, are bearing the brunt of the water crisis,” analyzes Luc Descroix, director of research in hydrology at the Institute of Research for Development (IRD) within the Paloc laboratory.

Residents gather near a tanker truck that distributes water in the Azcapotzalco neighborhood of Mexico City on January 26, 2024. © Henry Romero, Reuters

“Far from adequate infrastructure, they depend on tankers for supplies, a situation which risks worsening and becoming untenable.” The cost of tank trucks, ranging between 800 and 2,000 pesos – approximately 44 to 110 euros – for 10 m³, represents a significant financial burden for the poorest. Some Mexico City residents have their own cistern, but this solution is not without danger. “The use of individual cisterns may expose users to the risk of illness from stagnant water.”

If the city continues to draw on its reserves without recharging them, “day zero” could therefore arrive in the coming months. "The 'day zero' in Mexico City will depend on the appearance or not of the La Niña phenomenon [which, unlike El Niño, lowers temperatures, editor's note] in June, which could lead to an increase in precipitation. If no rain falls in June, the city could indeed face a 'zero day', which is consistent with Conagua's declarations", confirms Fabiola Sosa Rodriguez.

Others say it's up to Mexico City residents to take matters into their own hands, after years of public neglect and infrastructure failures. “The population will be able to show good citizenship and reduce their water consumption to avoid the worst,” Luc Descroix dares to hope.

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