The pro-Russian orientation recently taken by the Slovak government could be slowed down in the event of the victory of the liberal Ivan Korcok, who came first in the first round of the presidential election, analysts estimated on Sunday March 24.

Supported by the opposition, Ivan Korcok obtained 42.51% of the votes on Saturday, ahead of the President of Parliament, Peter Pellegrini, who collected 37.02% of the votes, according to the final results.

The two main candidates to succeed outgoing liberal President Zuzana Caputova will face each other in a second round on April 6.

Poll error

Before the election, experts expected a close result, while giving Peter Pellegrini a slight favorite.

“No poll predicted that Korcok would have a five-point lead,” Tomas Koziak, an analyst at the ISM University of International Affairs, told AFP. “Now he appears to be a strong candidate.”

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has become a fixture of the election campaign, after Slovak prime minister Robert Fico questioned that country's sovereignty and called for peace with Russia. In place since October, the Slovak government also ended military aid to Ukraine.

In a post published on Facebook after the election, the Prime Minister hailed Peter Pellegrini as a "better solution" for Slovakia, a country of 5.4 million inhabitants, member of the EU and NATO.

Foreign policy will continue to be a major topic ahead of the runoff, analysts say.

If Ivan Korcok is elected, the Slovak presidency "will maintain a critical attitude towards Russia, pro-European positions and support for Ukraine", Grigorij Meseznikov, director of the Institute of Business, told AFP public offices in Bratislava.

Peter Pellegrini, for his part, "will support the idea, represented by the government coalition (...), of a loosening of our ties with our NATO and EU allies and partners, weaker support to Ukraine and a penchant for Russia,” he added.

A victory for Ivan Korcok could also hinder, according to analysts, the rapprochement with Hungary of Viktor Orban, close to Russia. “There is a chance that the 'orbanization' of Slovakia will not happen,” judges Tomas Koziak.

What carryover of votes?

The election of Ivan Korcok to the presidency is nevertheless not assured. Peter Pellegrini will indeed have an easier time collecting the votes of supporters of the most nationalist candidates.

Among the latter, Stefan Harabin, who criticized the EU and praised Vladimir Putin during the campaign, came third, with almost 12% of the vote.

"Most Slovak voters want a president who will defend national interests, who will not drag Slovakia into war but will talk about peace, who will put Slovakia's interests first," Peter Pellegrini said on Saturday.

He must seduce Stefan Harabin's voters who react "like a bull to a red muleta" to pro-Western leanings, judge Tomas Koziak.

Aged 48, Peter Pellegrini was a minister in the previous governments of Robert Fico and replaced him at the head of government in 2018 after his resignation following the murder of an investigative journalist and his fiancée.

For his part, Ivan Korcok, 59, is a career diplomat and represented Slovakia in the United States, Germany and Switzerland before becoming Minister of Foreign Affairs between 2020 and 2022.

“I want to address voters who do not agree with the direction that this government is giving to Slovakia, (...) including in matters of foreign policy”, launched this last Saturday.

Domestically, Robert Fico is criticized for his attempts to interfere in the judicial system, with his recently adopted reform that softens penalties for corruption, and for his attempts to tamper with public media.

Read alsoPopulist, misogynist and pro-Putin, Robert Fico reconquered Slovakia

Opposition parties have backed Ivan Korcok, saying a victory for Peter Pellegrini would pave the way for presidential pardons for government allies found guilty of corruption.

“If he is elected, Ivan Korcok will balance the positions of the government,” believes Grigorij Meseznikov.

With AFP

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