Irregular migration imposes itself on the political and economic agendas of European governments (Anatolia)

The European Union believes that concluding “comprehensive partnership” agreements with the countries of origin of irregular migrants is the best way to contain the large flows of migration towards European coasts.

However, the European Border Protection Agency (Frontex) expects 2024 to be a difficult year, in light of the development of human smugglers’ tactics at sea, and the expanding desire to flee en masse from areas of conflict and economic crises.

The European Union's plans are based on the model agreement signed with Turkey in 2016, which made it possible to significantly reduce the number of arrivals to the bloc's countries following the large and record influx of refugees (about one million refugees) in 2015 due to the crisis in Syria in particular.

Data from the European Border Protection Agency indicate a significant increase in irregular migration rates in 2023, which justifies the European Union’s efforts to generalize the model of partnership agreements, with 420,000 people recorded crossing outside the borders of their countries, in addition to an increase in the pace of the influx of vulnerable groups, including women and children. .

Death proceeds

According to estimates by the European Commission, more than 90% of irregular migrants rely on the services of smugglers to cross borders, and the Commission estimates that smuggling networks achieve profits ranging between 4.7 and 6 billion euros annually (1 euro = 1.08 dollars) around the world.

But the cost of these flows in 2023 was the most tragic since 2017, with the death and loss of 3,150 people recorded at sea, including 161 children and 104 women, according to data from the “Missing Persons” platform of the International Organization for Migration.

The pace of death and loss of migrants continues in 2024, despite the emphasis of European Commission officials on avoiding more deaths in the first place in the negotiations of comprehensive agreements.

396 people were counted among the victims and missing people from the beginning of 2024 until mid-March 2024, according to the “Missing Persons” platform.

In a recent report, Frontex analysts expect that irregular migration will remain a major and disturbing challenge in 2024. The report urges European border management to prepare to face a complex geopolitical environment this year, with the possibility of an increase in cross-border migration and crime.

The report suggests that these challenges will likely affect migration routes in the central and eastern Mediterranean. According to the report, it is possible that pressure on migration routes in the Western Balkans will increase.

Alternative route to the Canary Islands

Aside from these estimates, the actual transformations began in West Africa, and “Tunisia, for example, was a major transit area in 2023, but it was not so before this date, and it replaced the coasts of Libya, which tightened its security grip, and the Greek coasts in the eastern Mediterranean. And now the waves of migration have shifted.” To the coasts of West Africa towards the Canary Islands as an alternative route,” according to expert Ramadan Ben Omar, a member of the Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights, which is concerned with immigration and asylum issues.

In January and February 2024, the number of irregular arrivals from West Africa saw a record year-on-year rise of 541%, with more than 12,000 migrants - mostly from Mali, Senegal and Mauritania - arriving in the Canary Islands, according to Frontex.

This total increase is the highest since the European agency began collecting data in 2011. Its announcement comes just days after the European Commission signed the Comprehensive Partnership Agreement with Mauritania with funds amounting to 500 million euros, in addition to funds worth 210 million euros directed to support refugee reception efforts and opportunities. Employment for youth, infrastructure, and support for security and stability.

Human rights organizations have doubts about the effectiveness of the agreement in reducing flows in the medium term, as it is not the first agreement of its kind concluded by Europe and Mauritania. The two parties signed a three-year cooperation program in 2021 that ends in September 2024, which includes funds to support the capabilities of the security and judicial agencies in combating gangs of human smugglers.

Mauritania is also linked to the “Madrid Agreement” signed in 2003 with Spain (renewed in 2019), which stipulates the interception of migrants from the shores of Nouadhibou, the economic capital of Mauritania, towards the Canary Islands. But the increases in the number of people arriving to escape poverty go against the goals of the agreements.

In general, the partnership agreement is not welcomed by the political class and civil society, as there are fears that it will pave the way for the actual integration and settlement of tens of thousands of expatriates from West African countries, which threatens the demographic composition of local communities and has additional repercussions on the country’s economy.

In a joint statement of protest, they believe that “the agreement does not only constitute a regional threat to Mauritania but also to the supreme interests of the nation,” pointing out that “involvement in this agreement cannot bear the consequences, as it would push the country into instability.”

The "Kafana" civil movement warned against turning Mauritania into an "alternative homeland for irregular migrants" and demanded the cancellation of the agreement.

'Temporary and deceptive' success

The increase in migrant flows across the Atlantic coasts indicates an expected change in the sea routes for people smuggling, with Tunisia tightening security restrictions on boat activities along its coasts, especially in Sfax, which is a major transit platform towards the coasts of the Italian islands.

The Tunisian Marine Guard succeeded in significantly reducing the waves of migration departing from the coasts at the beginning of 2024, compared to the record flows of 2023, which witnessed the arrival of more than 150,000 migrants to the Italian coasts. Two-thirds of these numbers came from the coast of Tunisia.

Frontex data showed a decline in the number of arrivals through the central region of the Mediterranean, which mainly includes the coasts of Tunisia and Libya, by about 70% in the first two months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

These data are seen in the European Union as an indicator of the effectiveness of the memorandum of understanding paving the way for the partnership agreement, which the European Commission signed with Tunisia in July 2023, and it includes funding of 105 million euros directed to the naval guard sector and 150 million euros to support the state budget.

Expert Ben Omar told Al Jazeera Net, "The security nature of the partnership has made it possible to limit the waves of migration, but this success is temporary and deceptive. It is expected that the numbers of migrants will witness a surge in the coming months - with the stability of the climate factor - especially by Tunisians due to the economic and social crisis and state of frustration." The public and the increasing restrictions of authority on freedoms.

Another reason for the expected increase, according to expert Ben Omar, is that the migration locations of Tunisians on the country’s coasts differ from the migration locations of immigrants from sub-Saharan African countries. Human smugglers are not the same, and their tactics are different. In addition, the security authorities focus mainly on combating the migration of sub-Saharan citizens.

Although tangible results have been achieved in reducing the number of migrants arriving on the coast of Italy, it is not clear to what extent the partnership agreement will hold, given that the first memorandum of understanding included financial pledges worth 900 million euros directed at investment to revive the Tunisian economy, but it was linked to Tunisia’s agreement with the International Monetary Fund. About a $1.9 billion loan program. This agreement has been suspended since October 2022 due to disagreements over the required reform package.

A faltering path at the expense of democracy

The partnership agreement also went through a stumbling path, with differences in views between the two sides regarding the disbursement of financial pledges that Tunisia desperately needs to provide liquidity to the state treasury.

In an escalatory step, Tunisia rejected funding worth 60 million euros last November because it did not meet the terms of the memorandum.

However, this escalation was overcome in March 2024, with the Union disbursing 150 million euros to support Tunisia’s budget within the framework of implementing the provisions of the memorandum, specifically within the program to support macroeconomic reforms, which was called “PARM” and approved by the European Union and Tunisia during December. 2023.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, "The European Union maintains its commitment to Tunisia and disburses 150 million euros to support economic reforms and financial stability. This is an important step in the common understanding we reached last year, and a major achievement for our partnership."

For civil society and human rights organizations, the agreement is not acceptable to them, not only because of the restrictions on the principle of freedom of movement, but also because of the path it followed.

Expert Ramadan Bin Omar believes, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, that "such agreements come in specific political contexts. In Tunisia, for example, the agreement did not pass through constitutional institutions such as Parliament, but occurred directly with the Presidency of the Republic."

The expert adds in his note that “the agreement gave legitimacy to the regime’s suppression of the political opposition, and on the other hand, gave legitimacy to the death of migrants off the Tunisian coast and the acts of violence and racist practices that affected migrants in a number of cities.”

Money to stimulate Egypt

The European Union signed a similar partnership agreement with Egypt on March 17, 2024, but in a different context, as Egypt - unlike Tunisia - was able to expand a loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund to $8 billion from $3 billion, which was signed in December. The first 2022.

The total value of European financing in the partnership agreement amounts to 7.4 billion euros, with the aim of reviving Egypt's faltering economy. Among these funds, 200 million euros are directed to efforts to combat irregular migration.

In an effort to avoid similar difficulties in implementing the memorandum with Tunisia, Reuters quoted a senior European Commission official as saying that emergency funding amounting to one billion euros from among the funds allocated will be disbursed this year to Egypt, while another 4 billion euros will require the approval of the European Parliament.

The agreement comes at a time when data from the European Border Protection Agency (Frontex) revealed that migration flows via sea routes in the eastern European Union rose by 117% in the first two months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023.

Although Egypt has succeeded in curbing the waves of irregular migration significantly since 2016, the percentage of Egyptians arriving through the coasts of Libya and arriving on the coasts of Greece is still at a high level under the weight of the economic crisis.

Egyptians are among the three nationalities most flocking to the eastern coasts of the European Union, along with Afghans and Syrians, according to Frontex.

Partnership is the best way

While the European Union says its expanded partnership with Egypt aims to promote democracy and freedoms, its moves to provide funding in exchange for restrictions on immigration in other countries, including Tunisia, have faced obstacles and criticism.

Human Rights Watch commented on the plan that it does not differ from “the flawed European Union agreements with Tunisia and Mauritania, which place stopping the flow of migrants in exchange for ignoring violations.”

The head of the European Union Complaints Committee, Emily O'Reilly, also expressed her concern about the content of the new agreement and the ambiguity surrounding some of its provisions, noting that it does not provide guarantees for human rights.

Expert Ben Omar told Al Jazeera Net, "The European Union contradicts itself. On the one hand, it promotes partnerships based on cooperation, development and investment, and on the other hand, it links these partnerships to evaluating migration flows."

In the expert's estimation, such agreements have always shown that they do not hold up in the past, as evidenced by the fact that the first agreement with Turkey went through varying periods despite its success in reducing the number of immigrants.

However, the European bloc is expected to continue its efforts to stop irregular migration from the Middle East and Africa, especially since immigration is a major concern for voters in the period leading up to the European Parliament elections next June.

Leader of the far-right Brotherhood of Italy party and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said such agreements are "the best way to address the influx of migrants."

Far-right parties across Europe - which based their speeches in the national elections on hostility to foreign immigration, such as the "Brothers of Italy" party - are counting on making a historic breakthrough in the European Parliament elections this year and securing the largest number of seats for them.

Source: Al Jazeera