War instead of a special military operation.. Where is Russia heading?

Moscow's decision to consider the military operation in Ukraine a war means expanding its scope, according to analysts (Al Jazeera)

Moscow

- After the use of the word “war” was prohibited in Russia to describe hostilities with Ukraine, the statement of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov that the special military operation in Ukraine had turned into a war due to Western intervention came to raise questions about the signals that this sudden change carries and the repercussions that it has. could come as a result of it.

Peskov said in remarkable statements, "Russia is in a state of war. At first it was called a special military operation." He continued that the legal status of the special operation in Ukraine has not changed, but in reality it turned into a war after the West directly increased its level of participation collectively.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the start of what was called the special operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. He described its goal as protecting people who are “subject to bullying and genocide by the Kiev regime.”

During the hostilities, Russian forces took complete control of the Luhansk Republic, in addition to most of the regions of the Donetsk Republic and the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, which, based on the results of referendums held later, the powers in power announced their accession to Moscow, and as of October 19, 2022, Implementing martial law in areas there.

Ukraine warned that Russia is preparing 100,000 soldiers to launch a large-scale operation in the summer against its territory (French)

new beginning

Throughout the past period, until Peskov's recent statement, Russian legislation prohibited the use of the term "war" in the media, and those responsible for this bore legal consequences in accordance with the "Information, Information Technology and Information Protection" Law.

The change in the Russian position in terms of time came about a week after the end of the presidential elections, which a number of observers said would constitute a new beginning in approaching the war with Ukraine and the forms of conflict with its Western allies.

Director of the Center for Political Forecasting, Denis Krkudinov, believes that the Russian presidential press secretary is not the person who can express opinions that differ from the official position. For this reason, his statement about de facto becoming a war has attracted great attention.

Karkudinov explains to Al Jazeera Net that Peskov's focus in particular on the fact that the entire NATO alliance now stands against his country carries a special signal that Russia will begin to respond to Western countries.

NATO countries, as the Russian researcher says, not only prevent reaching any agreement that could end the “hot phase” of the confrontation, but also stand in the way of constructive negotiations. Moreover, against the backdrop of French President Emmanuel Macron’s “aggressive” statements, all assertions that NATO is not a party to the conflict look like a naive “excuse.”

According to the same spokesman, the authorities in Kiev were the ones who contributed to transforming the northern military zone into a war zone. At a time when Russia's goals were limited to demilitarizing Ukraine and eliminating Nazism, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refused to make any concessions with Moscow and launched a comprehensive confrontation process.

 More dangerous

The director of the Forecast Center explains that Russia is now facing a new and different scope of military action, which may begin with information and diplomatic preparations to strike NATO targets.

He added, asking, "For example, what should we do if American F-16 planes start flying towards us from NATO airfields in Poland and Romania? Should we respond by bombing them?" Warning that this could basically mean the beginning of World War III.

For his part, Academician Alexei Arbatov does not rule out that the military conflict will escalate to a more dangerous stage after Peskov's statements.

He explains that if a ceasefire agreement is not reached soon, everything will lead to a large-scale war, such as long-range Russian missiles starting to strike Ukraine's infrastructure. On the other hand, Ukraine could launch the same type of strikes against Russia, which, if not preceded by a peace agreement, threatens with serious consequences for all parties.

According to Arbatov, if hostilities escalate into large-scale fighting, we must "tighten our belts" because the economy will be on the brink of war. Since drones fly not only to the border areas, but also to both capitals, it does not rule out the imposition of martial law, firstly, in the areas adjacent to the conflict (border).

The Russian academic concludes that the West has already transformed the economy into a military formula, and now it is Russia's turn, pointing out that during World War I, special military industrial committees were established, and during World War II, what were called "defense committees" worked at that time.

It is likely that the state will assume full control of the economy, including the possible temporary nationalization of the most important enterprises in key industries, as the costs of military purposes will come to the fore, and everything else will have to be forgotten for a while.

Source: Al Jazeera