A unit of the Niger army in the Tidin region of Niger (Getty)

Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso are ruled by three young military men who rebelled against the ruling elites and emerged from the mantle of France and the West in general, but they face armed movements and groups moving across vast areas. Will they be able to defeat them and achieve stability for their countries?

On March 6, the three military personnel signed an agreement to establish a joint defense force to fight "terrorist groups and armed movements that are active in the desert and undermine stability and peace efforts in the region."

In September 2023, the three countries entered into a military alliance, one of the main goals of which was to confront common threats, of which terrorism and separatist movements are considered the most dangerous.

International numbers

The Sahara and Sahel region is classified as a hotbed of violence and extremism. Since 2017, events related to armed movements in Mali, Burkina Faso, and western Niger have increased seven-fold.

According to the “Global Terrorism Index 2023” statement, “Burkina Faso ranks second after Afghanistan, while Mali and Niger are on the list of the 10 worst countries in the world in terms of terrorism, violence and extremism.”

According to previous statements by the CEO of the Institute for Economics and Peace, Steve Kililian, “In 2023, the region witnessed an 8% jump in the total number of deaths from terrorism, and according to the same source, 52% of the victims of terrorism globally will occur in Mali and Burkina Faso.”

There are multiple armed groups active in the Sahel region with varying backgrounds and starting points. Among them are movements with an ideological dimension, such as Boko Haram, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, and the Movement for Jihad and Oneness in West Africa, and among them are those that can be classified according to their goals and geopolitical affiliation, such as the separatist movements in Mali and Niger, and groups. Self-defense in Burkina Faso and Nigeria.

After the wave of coups in 2020 in the Sahel region and the withdrawal of French and UN forces from Mali and Niger, armed groups increased their activities, taking advantage of the vacuum created by the departure of Western forces that were working to establish peace in the region.

Soldiers from the Malian Armed Forces in the Diabaly region in the center of the country (Reuters)

Joint force

In an attempt to fill the vacuum created by the withdrawal of French and UN forces from Mali, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso signed the Liptako Gourma Charter on September 16, 2023, establishing the Sahel States Alliance, whose goals include “fighting terrorist groups that are active in the common border region between the three countries.” ".

The Liptako Gurma region (where the borders of the three countries meet) is considered a hotbed for armed groups that are accused of causing instability over the past years, as they “launched widespread attacks against civilians and military alike, and they also used that border as an active crossing point for drug trafficking and smuggling into Europe.” ", according to government data.

The Liptako Gurma Charter stipulated the solidarity of the three countries in uniting their efforts against the dangers to which they are exposed, unilaterally or collectively. Its provisions contained a set of points, the most important of which are:

  • Combating terrorism and organized crime in the NATO common area.

  •  Standing in the face of rebellion and armed violence in the three countries and confronting it with armed force if necessary.

  •  Military integration and working to create a joint army.

After joint attacks carried out by the forces of the three countries against armed groups in the common border areas, and field visits by military commanders in areas of contact with separatist groups, the chiefs of staff met in the capital, Niamey, on March 6 and announced the formation of a military force to combat what they call common terrorist challenges between their countries. .

Capabilities

Although the final statement by the Chiefs of Staff did not talk about the size of the defensive formation and did not provide any details about it, the Commander of the Armed Forces in Niger, General Moussa Barmo, said that the force would be ready for action soon.

The three countries have military capabilities that range from medium to weak in terms of armament, logistical and human capabilities.

According to the Global Fire website's ranking of armies in 2023, Mali ranks third among the countries of the West African region, 21st among the African countries, and is ranked 110th in the world, and the volume of military spending on the Malian armed forces amounts to 591 million US dollars.

The Burkina Faso army is ranked fifth among the countries of the West African region, 26th at the African level, and 121st at the global level, and spending on it amounts to approximately 440 million dollars.

As for the Niger army, it is the weakest of the three countries in weaponry, and the Ministry of Defense has begun a plan to develop it and increase its personnel since 2020.

Mali and Burkina Faso have 59 warplanes, 2,300 armored vehicles and military vehicles, 27 mini-guns, and 50 rocket launchers, and the number of soldiers in the two countries is 37,000.

As for Niger, according to its plan in 2020, the number of members of the armed forces will increase from 25,000 soldiers to 50,000.

Recently, the three countries carried out military cooperation with Moscow, which included purchasing many weapons, and increasing the capabilities of the armies through training and supporting combat capabilities.

According to Malian government data, Bamako purchased a number of Bayraktar drones from Turkey at the end of last year.

Nigerien Prime Minister Ali Mohamed El-Amin El-Zein also visited Ankara, among whose agenda was military and security cooperation between the two sides.

Common denominators

The three heads of state have many commonalities, the most important of which is military doctrine, access to power through a coup, and knowledge of armed groups and their areas of movement, as each of them had previously worked to fight them in the vast desert.

Since their arrival to power, they have severed their countries' relations with France and headed towards Moscow, which has become present on the African scene.

When the head of the Military Council in Mali, Colonel Assimi Goita, announced his intention to retake the city of Kidal, Wagner's Russian forces were his ally in retaking the city.

In September 2023, a Russian military delegation headed by Yunus Bey Yakkerov, Deputy Minister of Defense, visited Ouagadougou in order to follow up on the talks that took place between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Captain Ibrahim Traoré at the Russian-African summit held in St. Petersburg in July 2023.

Commenting on the results of the visit, the Burkinabe presidency said in a statement that the delegation came for military cooperation between the two countries.

In January 2024, Russia announced the formation of an African force numbering between 40 and 50 thousand soldiers, which will be present in African countries, including Mali and Burkina Faso.

This force will work to strengthen the Russian presence in the region and fill the void left by the departure of French forces.

In a study prepared by the Al Jazeera Center for Studies on Russian interests in Africa, weak and unstable countries are using the forces of the Russian Wagner Group to fight rebels, armed opponents, and terrorist groups.

Difficulties and challenges

The joint force of the Sahel countries to fight terrorism faces challenges represented by the growth of armed movements and their recovery of their places of deployment after the departure of the UN and French forces from northern Mali. The cessation of military cooperation with the Europeans will also have negative effects on the performance of the armed forces in the Liptako Gourma coalition.

Since the beginning of this year, attacks have escalated in northern Mali between the Azawad Movements and the "Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims" on the one hand, and the Armed Forces in Mali on the other hand.

In a statement to Al Jazeera Net, writer and journalist Al-Hafiz Al-Ghabid said that the new Sahel bloc is led by failed states and governments besieged by difficult crises and they have no successful options.

Al-Ghabid added that these countries control only a small part of their territories, and therefore they cannot achieve what international forces were unable to achieve.

Source: Al Jazeera