China News Service, Beijing, March 22 (Reporter Sun Zifa) The latest climate change research paper published by Springer Nature's professional academic journal "Communications-Earth and Environment" believes that under the expected temperature increase in 2035, the global Warming could cause food inflation to rise by up to 3.2% per year and overall inflation to rise by up to 1.2% per year. The findings also show that while both high- and low-income countries experience climate-induced inflation, countries in the Global South are more affected.
The paper introduces that the global economy is very sensitive to climate change and extreme weather through its impact on food production, labor, energy demand and human health. Therefore, understanding how weather is likely to affect inflation can help predict how future climate change will affect inflation risks and the global economy.
The co-corresponding author of the paper, Maximilian Kotz of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, the University of Potsdam, Friderike Kuik of the European Central Bank and colleagues analyzed the monthly national consumer price index and climate data of 121 countries from 1991 to 2020, and compared the analysis results with The predictions from physical climate models were combined to estimate the impact of future climate warming on inflation from 2030 to 2060.
They estimate that at the projected temperature increase in 2035, global warming will cause food inflation to rise by 0.9% to 3.2% per year and overall inflation to rise by 0.3% to 1.2% per year. This study also predicts that this will affect both high- and low-income countries, but generally have a greater impact on countries in the global South, particularly in Africa and South America.
The study's projections suggest that rising temperatures will increase inflation year-round at lower latitudes, whereas these effects would occur only in the summer at higher latitudes. In addition, the study estimates that extreme heat in the summer of 2022 increased food inflation in Europe by 0.67%, and this increase may be amplified by 30%-50% under the 2035 warming scenario.
The authors of the paper concluded that climate change may increase food prices in the future, but reducing greenhouse gas emissions and technology-based adaptation measures may significantly limit this global economic risk. (over)