Russians have entered a new reality. “We are in a state of war,” Dmitri Peskov declared for the first time on Friday, March 22, to the pro-Kremlin daily Argumenty i Fakty. And in case the importance of the semantic shift was lost on readers, he even clarified: "It started as a special military operation, but as soon as this whole gang was formed, when the West participated in all this alongside Ukraine, for us it has become a war.”

At the same time, Dmitri Peskov clarified a little later to the Tass news agency that the old world, that of the "special military operation" - the only terminology officially accepted until now - was not dead for as much. “Legally, nothing has changed,” he said.

Two alternative realities that coexist

“Welcome to a country where two seemingly contradictory realities can coexist,” says Stephen Hall, a specialist in Russian politics at the University of Bath. So, if Vladimir Putin's spokesperson can now speak of "war", this will probably not be the case for ordinary Russians. “For them, it will always be prohibited and punishable,” says Stephen Hall.

The introduction of "the state of war" into the Kremlin's official terminology "is an important change, because it is proof that Vladimir Putin believes that he no longer has to take gloves with public opinion", notes Huseyn Aliyev , specialist in the war in Ukraine at the University of Glasgow.

Until now, the euphemism “special military operation” made it possible to maintain the illusion that the fighting in Ukraine had only a distant and limited impact on the daily lives of Russians. But the Russian presidential election has passed this way and "Vladimir Putin presents himself as the big winner of the election, who can do or say what he wants for the next five years [the duration of the presidential mandate in Russia, Editor's note]", notes Huseyn Aliyev.

The semantic evolution initiated by Dmitri Peskov marks "an important step in the construction of the narrative of a fight against the West in which Ukraine is only a battlefield", underlines Jeff Hawn, Russia specialist. at the London School of Economics. The Kremlin found it difficult ideologically to qualify the offensive that began in February 2022 in Ukraine as a "war", because "Russian power has an imperialist mentality in which Ukraine is still Russian. There could therefore be no war against the Ukrainians. Unless we talk about a war of liberation,” adds Stephen Hall.

At first, it was about freeing the “Ukrainian brothers” from the yoke of the “Nazis” stationed in kyiv. From now on, the Kremlin is talking about a “war of civilization against the decadent West which is trying to impose its values ​​through Ukraine”, summarizes Jeff Hawn

This new way of assuming the term "state of war" against the West also has a political goal. "We must not forget that the only opposition forces to Vladimir Putin that remain are based in Western countries. So by presenting the conflict as a war, the Russian government is suggesting that these opponents are traitors who have crossed over to the enemy,” explains Jeff Hawn.

Prepare a massive mobilization

The new semantic situation also means “very likely that a massive mobilization is approaching,” assures Huseyn Aliyev. This expert recalls that during the electoral campaign, "Vladimir Putin said that there would be more efforts to make in Ukraine." In addition, “Sergueï Shoigu, the Minister of Defense, has just announced his intention to create two new armies by the end of the year,” underlines Stephen Hall.

To do this, new soldiers are needed and the experience of the last "partial mobilization" did not "allow us to raise as many troops as the Kremlin would have liked", underlines Huseyn Aliyev. But for a massive mobilization, you have to be officially at war and Dmitri Peskov's declarations are a first big step in this direction.  

In the eyes of the general staff, "the only way to hope to make significant progress in Ukraine is through the sending of a large number of new troops, which implies a significant mobilization", adds Huseyn Aliyev.

And not just men. More equipment is also needed. And this is, again, an advantage of officially talking about war: "this should make it possible to move to a war economy, implying that the government can force private companies to put themselves at the service of the military industry", summarizes Huseyn Aliyev.

A permanent “state of war”?

For him, the Kremlin's much more warlike rhetoric is bad news for Ukraine, which continues to have difficulty sending enough weapons and ammunition to the front. “It is certain that this goes in the direction of a major Russian offensive to come,” confirms Jeff Hawn.

“Perhaps this will convince NATO countries to continue to support Ukraine as much as possible by sending military equipment,” said Stephen Hall.

For him, this should also open the eyes to the authoritarian drift of Vladimir Putin's regime for those who still have doubts. Declaring a "state of war" demonstrates that the "regime increasingly needs to have an enemy to fight in order to strengthen its power", underlines Stephen Hall. It is a classic procedure of authoritarian regimes which “believe they can last longer in a state of war”, he adds. The North Korean regime thus remains in a permanent state of war against the United States. “This is proof that Russia has truly entered a very dark period,” concludes Stephen Hall.  

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