Maritime traffic via Panama, slowed by drought, could be “normalized” before February 2025

The administrator of the Panama Canal said on Wednesday March 20 that he was counting on a return to normal of traffic, restricted due to the lack of precipitation, before February 2025.

A ship passing through the locks of the Panama Canal.

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By: RFI with AFP

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Since 2023, the Panama Canal has been forced to restrict the daily passage of cargo ships on this waterway between the Atlantic and the Pacific due to the lack of water in the lakes that feed it, going from 39 at 27 currently.

Also readRecord revenues from the Panama Canal threatened by global warming

We hope that before February 2025 the situation can be normalized

,” Ricaurte Vasquez told the press.

According to him, in the coming weeks the La Niña meteorological phenomenon, which is characterized in Central America by an increase in precipitation, should replace that of El Niño, which produces the opposite effect.

Indications received point to a moderate La Niña that could begin in April, and a greater likelihood that the intensity of La Niña increases in the months of July and August

,” he said.

However, he tempers an immediate effect on traffic, believing that the maritime industry “cannot

adapt as quickly

”.

Fresh water is essential to move ships through the locks (up to 26 meters above sea level).

For each boat, it is necessary to discharge approximately 200 million liters of fresh water into the ocean, which the canal draws from a hydrographic basin formed by Lakes Gatun and Alajuela.

However, the level of the lakes reached critical thresholds in 2023, the second driest year in the history of the canal inaugurated in 1914, due to the lack of precipitation correlated with the El Niño phenomenon aggravated by global warming.

The level of Alajuela, however, rose by 62 meters in May 2023, the worst record of the year, to 72 m today.

That of Gatun is practically unchanged, at 24 m.

The number of ships crossing the Isthmus of Panama on an 80 km canal, which sees 6% of world maritime trade, was recently increased from 24 to 27.

In fiscal year 2023, the Panama Canal recorded $3.344 billion in revenue from ship transit and service provision.

In the long term we can be optimistic, but in the short term we must be extraordinarily realistic

,” Ricaurte Vasquez cautiously underlined.

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