Let's go for a fifth term at the head of Russia.
Vladimir Putin's unsurprising victory in the Russian presidential election, which took place from Friday March 15 to Sunday March 17, allows the head of the Kremlin to add six years to his personal tally.
If he manages to stay in power until the end of this new mandate, in 2030 he will equal the longevity of another president, Leonid Brezhnev, at the head of the USSR for 18 years, from 1964 to 1982 Only Joseph Stalin lasted longer...
While waiting to match the "little father of the people" in terms of continuity, Vladimir Putin offered himself a "record" re-election according to the almost final results announced by the Central Electoral Commission (CEC), Monday March 18.
Of all the ballots counted, 87.28% relate to the name of the outgoing president, underlined Ella Pamfilova, president of the CEC.
According to her, participation also reached an “unprecedented” level with more than 77% of those registered having voted.
The Kremlin's "electoral fairy tale"
On the Western side, the vote was widely described as a “sham election” or even “elections without choice” by most Western governments.
But the scale of the “Putin wave” still surprised observers.
“We thought that Vladimir Putin was aiming for a little more than 75% of the votes to remain in line with the 2018 results [77%, Editor's note], but he has obviously decided to completely ignore appearances by doing even harder than that. Alexander Lukashenko, who gave himself 81% of the votes during the highly contested Belarusian presidential election of 2020. To speak of a 'crushing victory' is ridiculous in this context, it is rather a 'crushing self-nomination' if we can say so. , summarizes Stephen Hall, specialist in Russian politics at the University of Bath.
Why aim so high?
The war in Ukraine has “made it more necessary than ever to show the extent to which Russia is 'united behind' its president,” said Jeff Hawn, a Russia specialist at the London School of Economics.
Read alsoPresidential election in Russia: what are the three candidates running against Putin for?
The first audience for this “electoral fairy tale concocted by the Kremlin” is internal, assures Stephen Hall.
For this expert, the authoritarian drift of the regime has the consequence that Vladimir Putin increasingly considers himself the “father of the nation” and “this paternal figure must have unfailing support from all his children”.
The Russian political class and the economic elite also had to be convinced.
With such a score, “the message is clear: there is supposedly not only no opposition, but also no political space for a possible successor or successor,” analyzes Jeff Hawn.
This “unprecedented score” also sends a message beyond Russia’s borders.
“It must serve to feed the narrative of the relays of Russian power in Western democracies.
I would not be surprised if in the coming weeks this result is used by pro-Russian media or Moscow sympathizers to try to undermine support for Ukraine by suggesting that this election victory demonstrates a stronger Russian resolve than ever." , believes Jeff Hawn.
An embryonic opposition in the polling stations
Paradoxically, if the official results suggest a consolidation of Vladimir Putin's power, “this election also saw a level of engagement from civil society on a scale not seen since the mass demonstrations of the winter of 2011-2012”, underlines the independent English-speaking Russian daily The Moscow Times.
“The call to vote at noon on Sunday to protest against Vladimir Putin was rather well followed, even if it was mainly by the Russian diaspora,” underlines Jeff Hawn.
“In front of the Russian embassy in London, there was a queue of almost a kilometer at 12 p.m.,” noted Stephen Hall, who visited the site on Sunday.
Many Russians did the same in Berlin, where Yulia Navalnaya - the widow of Alexei Navalny - demonstrated.
Also read “Noon against Putin”: small gesture and strong symbol of Russian opposition to Putin
Vladimir Putin does not come out on top in the vote of Russians abroad.
With a few exceptions (in Greece or Italy), they preferred the more “liberal” – but nevertheless pro-Putin – candidate Vladislav Davankov.
Grains of sand in the beautiful electoral gear put in place by the Kremlin have also appeared inside Russia.
Lines formed at noon on Sunday in front of polling stations in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
But mostly, there were small acts of vandalism across the country, such as voters “pouring green dye into ballot boxes or setting off firecrackers.
Others also drew Alexeï Navalny's face on the ballots,” summarizes Stephen Hall.
Polling stations or queues have thus become, during the election, “places of improvised networking for disgruntled Russians who have no other way of finding each other or recognizing each other”, underlines Stephen Hall.
Bad news ahead?
Small gestures of protest which do not carry much weight compared to the weight of the 87% of votes for Vladimir Putin brandished by the Kremlin.
The Russian president has also made it clear that he does not fear this embryonic protest.
In his victory speech, he, for the first time, referred to his late main opponent Alexeï Navalny by name.
“It shows that he has gained confidence after this election,” said Stephen Hall.
But more confidence for what to do?
Continue the war, certainly.
But perhaps also undertake the major projects - road renovation, construction of airports in remote regions - mentioned during his speech to the Nation at the end of February?
Stephen Hall does not believe it: “Any reform or expenditure would risk weakening the system in place.
Vladimir Putin will simply do everything to maintain the status quo,” assures this expert.
Perhaps the only change will come in the form of bad news for the Russians.
“The Kremlin generally takes advantage of the period after a presidential election to pass unpopular measures,” underlines the New York Times.
In 2018, the government adopted a law providing for an increase in the retirement age.
And in 2024?
There could be talk of a new wave of mobilization to swell the ranks of soldiers sent to Ukraine, fears the Moscow Times.
Will the signs of protest that emerged during the election be enough to dissuade Vladimir Putin?
The France 24 summary of the week
invites you to look back at the news that marked the week
I subscribe
Take international news everywhere with you!
Download the France 24 application