China: the increase in sales and industry does not cancel out the effects of the real estate crisis

Encouraging results for the Chinese economy: according to announcements on Monday March 18 from the national statistics office, industrial production increased by 7% at the start of 2024. The same goes for retail sales, which recorded +5.5%. growth in January and February 2024. A rebound slowed by real estate, where investments are down 9%.

Excavators work on the roof of a building near the central business district in Beijing, China, Monday March 18, 2024. China's manufacturing industry and investment improved in the first two months of the year, while weakness in the real estate sector weighed on the economy, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

© Tatan Syuflana / AP

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With our correspondent in Beijing

,

Stéphane Lagarde

These are figures which support the official speeches: during the annual parliamentary session at the beginning of the month, the clear horizon

for

the second largest economy in the world

was mentioned

.

In addition to the increase in industrial production, growth in fixed capital investment was 4.2% in the first two months of the year: much stronger than the forecast increase of 3.2%.

If the increase in retail sales remains in line with forecasts, these figures from the national statistics office provide some relief to business circles and markets.

Until now, they have been suffocated by the accumulation of bad news.

Relaxation of apartment purchase restrictions

This rebound in the Chinese economy should, however, be taken with caution.

Investments in stone are still weighed down by

the real estate crisis

.

But if

construction is not going well

, nothing is going well for the budget of the autonomous regions and Chinese provinces: according to combined data from January and February, real estate fell by 9% in China, despite the relaxation of policies on construction. purchase of apartments and houses.

Example on March 14, when the city of Hangzhou canceled

purchasing restrictions on “

second-hand housing

for non-residents, according to the name of the official media, i.e. already built.

Last November, Hangzhou had already relaxed control measures.

The purchasing restrictions only affected major urban areas in four districts (Shangcheng, Gongshu, Xihu and Binjiang), where local residents were limited to purchasing two properties per family, compared to just one property for non-residents.

Now restrictions are canceled everywhere.

This first measure aimed to revitalize transactions.

Implemented on the scale of a megacity, this is also a way of testing the purchasing power of the market, which can then be extended to other cities.

Also read: Annual session of the Chinese Parliament: “The Chinese economy is today in increased difficulty”

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