Robert Kennedy Jr. changed his party affiliation from Democrat to Independent last October (Reuters)
Washington -
All estimates indicate that there are no practical chances that would allow independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. to achieve victory in the US presidential elections next November.
However, there are objective reasons that indicate that he has become the person who can most influence the outcome of the elections and push for the arrival of former US President Donald Trump or current Joe Biden to the White House for the second time.
Various opinion polls reveal that Kennedy achieves much higher percentages than any third-party candidate in recent decades, and obtains 15% to 20% of the opinions of respondents in most opinion polls specialized in presidential elections.
Kennedy's campaign spent $7 million on ads during the NFL final, with his pledge to remain in the race until next November.
Biden (right) and Trump received sufficient support from their parties to run in the presidential elections again (French)
good chance
The importance of Kennedy's candidacy comes from the fact that most Americans are dissatisfied with the inevitability of choosing between Biden and Trump in a second election round that repeats the 2020 elections with all the negatives and unrest, in addition to the state of severe political polarization that is enveloped in the results of elections in which the victorious candidate prevails by a very small number of votes. In a few swing states.
Kennedy has a good chance to be the first third-party candidate since Ross Perot, who in the 1992 elections won 18.9% of the votes from about 19.7 million voters, to participate in the presidential debates.
Perot is a major exception among independent or third-party candidates who do not qualify for the presidential debates.
George Wallace, the former governor of Alabama, topped the third-party candidates in 1968 and received 14% of the vote.
Participation in presidential debates represents a great opportunity for both candidates and voters, and allows the candidate to present himself and millions of Americans to compare the capabilities of these candidates.
Kennedy can qualify to participate in debates in which the candidate is required to be on the ballot in a sufficient number of states to enable him to achieve the required victory in the Electoral College of 270 votes, and an average of at least 15% in 5 reputable national polls.
According to a recent Quinnipiac University poll, Kennedy won 22% of the votes of registered voters.
Kennedy's name may be well known, as he is the descendant of the most famous Democratic family in the United States, which believes in the ideological constants of the Democratic Party, but he tweets alone with complex mixed policy positions that combine some policies of the Democratic camp and the Republican Party, and other ideas from outside the traditional political context in the United States.
Sharp thoughts
Kennedy has become known in recent years for his strident anti-vaccine beliefs, which reached their peak after the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus.
The rest of his ideas are an unconventional mix from across the American political spectrum.
He proposed reducing the interest rate on mortgage loans to 3%, providing free child care, and making student debt repayable in the event of bankruptcy, in addition to many left-wing populist ideas close to the ideas of Senator Bernie Sanders.
In contrast, Kennedy adopts a hard-line stance on the issue of immigration and securing the southern border with Mexico, and also promotes misinformation and conspiracy theories related to Corona vaccines.
One important voting group that the Biden and Trump campaigns are monitoring for the 2024 elections is that group that strongly rejects their candidacy and is looking for a third alternative.
The latest poll from Marquette University Law School indicates that this group represents 17% of voters, while the latest polls from Quinnipiac University indicate that Kennedy won a majority among those who hate Biden and Trump.
A number of Democratic voters point out their anger at Biden's candidacy due to what they see as a sharp decline in his mental and emotional ability due to his old age, while there is anger among a group of Republican candidates who reject Trump's candidacy after more than 90 criminal charges were brought against him by federal courts, and the courts of the states of New York and Florida.
At the same time, Kennedy - who is 70 years old - appears young compared to Biden, who is 81 years old, and Trump, who is 77 years old.
With the closeness of the results of the recent elections, and the presence of very small margins of victory between 10,000 to 75,000 voters in many swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, the importance and step of having a strong third candidate who can tip the balance in favor of one candidate over another is rising.
Unprecedented elections
Kennedy has belonged throughout his life to the Democratic Party, and after the party rejected his bid to run on its ticket last April, he changed his affiliation to an independent last October after the party institutions and leaders agreed to support the election of Biden only.
The Democratic National Committee launched a campaign to attack Robert Kennedy Jr.'s bid to run for president because of the real threat he poses to Biden's re-election chances.
This attack comes at a time when Kennedy's campaign announced that it had collected enough signatures to place him on the ballot in most American states.
"We are facing an unprecedented election and we know that the Republican Party is already working to support third-party candidates like Robert Kennedy Jr. to boost Trump's electoral chances," Matt Corridone, a Democratic Party spokesman, told NBC.
It is estimated that Kennedy will choose his deputy from among two main candidates who are famous athletes, the first of whom is Aaron Rodgers, a famous American football player from the state of Wisconsin, and Jesse Ventura, a former professional wrestler, who previously served as governor of the state of Minnesota.
Kennedy announced his intention to announce the name of his deputy, who will be with him on the nomination ticket on March 26.
He said in a tweet on the
He added: "On Tuesday, March 26, in Oakland, California, I will announce the partner I have chosen to help lead America toward a brighter vision of peace, prosperity, and unity. We are honored to have you join us in this historic announcement."
Source: Al Jazeera