Trump and Africa.. Will he correct his relationship with the African continent if he wins the presidency again?

During his presidency, Trump previously described African countries as “scum” (Reuters)

Many in Africa rule out that a possible victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential elections in November will have major repercussions on US-African relations, but the possibility of the Republican billionaire returning to the White House raises concerns for some.

During his presidential term (2017-2021), Trump did not show much interest in Africa, and his statements in which he described countries on the African continent as “scum” sparked a massive wave of condemnation.

For his part, Joe Biden, his successor and rival in the presidential election scheduled for November of this year, pledged to pay more attention to Africa, but he has not yet fulfilled his promise to visit the continent.

If Trump returns to the White House, the gateway to relations between the United States and Africa may be connected to China, according to Christian Muleka, national coordinator of DePaul, a network of political science researchers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

During his presidential term, the Trump administration focused on the international level, especially on trade competition with China.

In Central Africa, including eastern Democratic Congo, a region that has been witnessing conflicts for more than 30 years, Westerners and China are competing to exploit rare mineral deposits.

If Trump wins, the US administration's interest may be focused primarily on the United States and then on China, and thus its dealings with African governments may be less strict in terms of democracy and respect for human rights.

In addition, “Trump’s return may mean a decline in American engagement on the level of multipolarity, such as the climate issue, and perhaps a reduction in development aid,” according to Molica.

Rapprochement with Russia and China

Muleka considered that the approach of both Trump and China could suit African leaders facing criticism against the backdrop of the decline of democracy in their countries.

Muleka pointed out that Trump's potential return to the White House is very likely to "embolden" authoritarian regimes in Africa.

Trump's return to the US presidency with an administration that does not care about Africa beyond economic interests would, according to Kelma Manatoma, professor of political science at the University of N'Djamena in Chad, encourage "the public rapprochement of authoritarian regimes in Africa with Russia and China."

The image of the United States among some Africans was tarnished by Trump's lack of respect for democratic rules in his country, including his claim that the 2020 elections were rigged and his defense of his supporters who stormed the headquarters of Congress.

The ruling African National Congress party in South Africa mocked calls by its opponents for American observers to supervise the general elections scheduled for May, highlighting elections whose results have not been disputed for 30 years.

Pretoria's relations are tense with the Biden administration against the backdrop of the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip, and Washington has considered that there is "no basis" for South Africa to accuse Israel of committing genocide.

In the Sahel region, Washington's influence appears to be heading for decline, as the ruling military regime in Niger has canceled "with immediate effect" the military cooperation agreement concluded in 2012 with the United States, which may lead to the expulsion of American military personnel from the country, similar to the French army.

The United States deploys about 1,100 soldiers in Niger who are participating in the fighting against armed groups in the country and has a large drone base in Agadez (north).

As for the Horn of Africa region, some are concerned that Trump's potential return to the White House will negatively affect US military aid to combat terrorism.

In the last days of his presidential term, Trump ordered the withdrawal of 700 American soldiers from Somalia, where they were supporting local forces in confronting the Al-Shabaab insurgency, in a decision that Biden canceled.

But if Trump returns to the White House and insists on this withdrawal, “the matter will be very problematic,” because American supervision and training are necessary for the commandos in the Somali Denb Brigade, which is an elite military force, according to what Samira Gaid, a consultant at the Belqis Consulting and Research Center, explained. Insights, based in Mogadishu.

"Revitalize" relationships

"We may face difficult times in the future, both in Somalia and in the broader security landscape in the region," Jade said.

The Biden administration has sometimes caused frustration for African countries, because they are often involved in crises, especially in Afghanistan, Ukraine, and the Middle East.

But US Vice President Kamala Harris and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made visits to the continent that received widespread media coverage.

The United States invested $250 million to build a 1,300-kilometre railway linking mining sites in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia to the ports of Angola on the Atlantic Ocean.

According to Julius Catta, an economist at the University of Ghana, Africa may ultimately have mercy on Biden's era if he loses the elections.

Cata considered that "the Biden administration has revived US-African relations" while his predecessor had "practically abandoned the continent."

He added, "Trump simply did not care about Africa. If he returns (to the presidency), his policy toward Africa will not change."

Source: French