Vladimir Putin may fear that one of his wishes for the presidential election from March 15 to 17 will come true: to see Russians vote in large numbers.
Especially if it's the last day, and at noon sharp.
This would not be good news for the outgoing president, who is seeking a fifth term.
Indeed, the Russian electorate may have difficulty motivating themselves to participate in an election without stakes and without real opposition (Grégoire paper).
Except to respond to the call of “Midi against Putin”, the last citizen action supported by Alexeï Navalny before his death.
“Knowing the extent to which this initiative carried out today by Navalny's widow will mobilize voters represents the only interesting data from this election in my eyes,” assures Matthew Wyman, specialist in Russian politics at Keele University (United Kingdom). ).
“Navalny’s political legacy”
The promoters of “Midi against Putin” want Russians to wait until Sunday March 17 at noon to go to their polling station.
They don't care which candidate they vote for as long as they come at that precise time.
Thus, they will be able to make a gesture of support for the opposition to Vladimir Putin and the war being waged in Ukraine.
“This will be our way of sabotaging the election,” assures Maxim Reznik, Russian opponent in exile and initiator of this idea, interviewed by Meduza, an independent Russian news site.
He proposed it during a debate – “What to do for the presidential election?”
– broadcast in January 2024 on the opposition channel Dojd.
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Since then, most of the major figures of the Russian opposition have shown their support for the “Midi against Putin” initiative, starting with the Anti-Corruption Foundation of the late Alexei Navalny, who does not miss an opportunity to do so. the promotion.
So much so that this call was described as “Navalny’s political testament” by the independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta.
“It is indeed perfectly in the spirit of the actions promoted by the famous opponent of Vladimir Putin,” underlines Matthew Wyman.
“Above all, he asked everyone to make small, easy, low-risk gestures which, taken together, could make a difference,” adds Jenny Mathers, Russia specialist at the University of Aberystwyth, Wales. .
“Noon against Putin” fits perfectly into this framework.
Getting to the polling station at a specific time does not require any special effort and the risk is minimal.
“The beauty of this initiative is that people will demonstrate their opposition to the war and the regime by doing exactly what those in power ask of them: going to vote,” summarizes Matthew Wyman.
The police would have difficulty justifying arrests of voters fulfilling their civic duty.
It is also important to start with small actions.
The government "has done great harm to the opposition in Russia in recent years, and Yulia Navalnaïa, who has taken up the torch from her husband and actively supports 'Midi against Putin', knows that we must not skip ahead. This is only the first small stone in rebuilding a solid opposition,” notes Jenny Mathers.
Get an idea of how many Russians opposed the war
This type of action illustrates “the creativity that the opposition must demonstrate to avoid being arrested,” explains Matthew Wyman.
“Noon against Putin” is part of a long list of initiatives in the same spirit: there were the demonstrators who brandished white sheets to symbolize the censorship of any criticism of the war or even the activists who added QR codes to ordinary billboards to access sites critical of Vladimir Putin.
“It is symptomatic of the authoritarian excesses of a regime, and this type of initiative is reminiscent of the Chinese who must use indirect means to criticize Xi Jinping by comparing him, for example, to Winnie the Pooh” , notes Jenny Mathers.
Also read: After two years of large-scale war in Ukraine, an invincible Russian economy?
And so what ?
“It is obvious that it is not ‘Noon against Putin’ which will prevent Vladimir Putin from winning the presidential election,” recognizes Jenny Mathers.
On the other hand, "it will be a good way to have a more precise idea of the number of Russians opposed to the war", estimates Matthew Wyman.
The crowd gathered for Alexeï Navalny's funeral had already given a glimpse of this.
“But above all it was about Muscovites who had made the trip to the cemetery. There, it is a way for Russians from all regions to demonstrate their opposition to Putin by going to the polling station on Sunday (17 March) at noon," notes Stephen Hall, Russia specialist at the University of Bath.
Stealing the media spotlight from Putin
According to this expert, mobilization elsewhere than in Moscow or Saint Petersburg constitutes one of the main challenges of this operation.
"Vladimir Putin has always counted on popular support on the outskirts of large urban centers. If long lines form everywhere in Russia in front of polling stations at noon on Sunday, he may begin to worry about the real level of his popularity," explains Stephen Hall.
Another challenge of “Noon against Putin” is to steal the media spotlight from the Kremlin.
The government "does not want any problems during these three days of voting in order to be able to impose its narrative", underlines Jenny Mathers.
"Vladimir Putin absolutely wants all the newspaper headlines to be devoted solely to his big victory in order to perpetuate the myth that Putin is Russia. We will make sure that we also talk about the spectacle of people supporting 'Midi against Putin'" , assures Maxim Reznik.
“It’s about creating a counter-narrative,” says Matthew Wyman.
Both so that Russians opposed to the regime do not feel alone, but also "to tell the world that Russia is not just about Vladimir Putin and that there is a movement to support", concludes Jenny Mathers.
There still need to be people in front of the polling stations on Sunday at 12 p.m.
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