What is behind Hamdok's visit to Cairo?

Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan (left) received by the Egyptian President in Cairo (Reuters)

An intense movement related to the Sudanese crisis has witnessed in Cairo over the past few days, led by the visit of former Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok to Cairo starting March 8.

This was preceded by a meeting between the President of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, in Cairo, with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, late last February, where Al-Burhan presented his vision for ending the war and sustaining peace and stability in his country.

While on March 6, the Egyptian capital hosted a remarkable meeting of the high-level African mechanism on Sudan with representatives of the former ruling National Congress Party, in which the two parties discussed how to extinguish the conflict that is approaching the completion of its first year.

These meetings re-shed light on Egyptian efforts to address the deteriorating conditions in its southern neighbor, and the divergent relations it has with actors on the Sudanese scene.

Hamdok visited Cairo last week (Anatolia)

Egyptian efforts

The Egyptian approach to resolving the crisis in Sudan is based on a set of determinants laid down by its “Sudan Neighboring Countries” initiative, whose summit was held on July 13, 2023, including calling for an end to the war, with full respect for Sudan’s sovereignty and unity, and stopping the interference of external parties, in addition to preserving On the Sudanese state.

Cairo also hosted the Conference on Humanitarian Issues in Sudan in November 2023, whose recommendations included areas related to humanitarian and relief aspects.

In contrast to the above, a relative decline was observed in the Egyptian presence in the Sudanese crisis file, with the advancement of other platforms on the stage of political solution, such as Jeddah, the IGAD initiative, Manama, and others, which in turn failed to write the end word to the raging war in Sudan.

In this context, analysts believe that a group of factors lie behind the remarkable activity witnessed by Cairo’s efforts recently, as the blockage of the political horizon reinforces fears about the future of Sudan as a unified state, with all the repercussions that this scenario carries on neighboring countries, especially Egypt.

While the worsening humanitarian crisis in Sudan threatens to increase the number of refugees to Egypt, doubling the burden on Cairo, which is suffering from a stifling economic crisis, as UN figures published last February indicate that nearly half a million Sudanese have fled to their northern neighbor since the outbreak of the Sudanese war.

On the other hand, regional and international developments have returned Sudan to the agenda of Western priorities, with the escalation of security tensions in the southern Red Sea and the development of Sudanese-Iranian relations. In late February, Washington appointed Tom Perillo as a special envoy to Sudan, which is expected to constitute the beginning of greater American involvement in Sudanese reconciliation efforts.

The growing American interest in the Sudanese crisis and the inability of the various initiatives to untangle its knots allow Cairo to play a more effective role, within the framework of what political science professor at the International University of Africa in Khartoum, Mohamed Khalifa Siddiq, described as Egyptian efforts to revive the initiative of Sudan’s neighboring countries, and to seek to determine the size and manner of the expected Egyptian interaction with the Sudanese crisis. The Sudanese crisis and accelerating efforts to resolve it.

A friend adds to Al Jazeera Net that this move is a continuation of the Egyptian endeavor to discuss the executive measures required to address the repercussions of the Sudanese crisis on the future and stability of Sudan, and to establish guarantees that guarantee reducing the negative effects of the crisis on neighboring countries and to study the mechanism of humanitarian and relief aid to the Sudanese people inside the country and in countries of asylum and on Its head is Egypt itself.

A vision for a new initiative

For his part, Sudanese political analyst Muhammad Torshin believes that the limited success of the initiative of Sudan's neighboring countries prompted Cairo to develop its unilateral action, with the accelerating need to find an approach that contributes to stopping the war, as Cairo is one of the parties most affected and harmed by its prolonged duration.

Turshin confirms to Al Jazeera Net that Cairo is now working on developing an initiative capable of creating a breakthrough in the solid wall of the Sudanese crisis, and formulating an approach that contributes to restoring the weak factors in all previous initiatives, by studying the obstacles and challenges that led them to failure, and working to overcome them towards a more visionary vision. Effectiveness and ability to bring about a shift in the course of the Sudanese crisis.

Although Cairo has embraced many activities related to the Sudanese crisis in recent weeks, the visit by the delegation of the Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces (Taqaddum), led by former Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok, to Cairo, received many echoes for considerations related to the positions of both parties regarding the course of the Sudanese crisis. Post-rescue system.

In this context, a group of factors stand behind the divergence that characterized Cairo’s positions and progress, as the latter enjoys warm relations with Ethiopia, Cairo’s historical rival in the Nile Basin, which in October 2023 hosted the meeting of Sudanese political and civil forces that led to the formation of the “progress” coordination. .

While Cairo is described as supportive of the Sudanese military establishment, the Progress Coordination Committee signed the “Addis Ababa Declaration to Resolve the Sudanese Crisis” with the Rapid Support Forces in the Ethiopian capital early last January, which addressed issues related to stopping hostilities, protecting civilians, and facilitating the arrival of humanitarian aid.

On the other hand, Molly, the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, stated that the future of Sudan after the conflict depends on a broad pro-democracy civil front. This statement came in a tweet on the “X” platform after her meeting with a delegation from the “Taqaddum” coordination on February 13 of last year, It praised the latter and its efforts, which places “progress” at the heart of the American vision of how to solve the intractable crisis in the country of the Nile River.

Based on the above, Muhammad Turshin believes that the visit of the Taqadum delegation to Cairo is an opportunity for the two parties to explore and consult, as Cairo, in its formulation of a new initiative, is interested in hearing Taqadum’s point of view, and perhaps the visions of rapid support through the document it signed with Taqadum, while The latter is concerned with clarifying the road map it is adopting to get out of the Sudanese crisis, ensuring the transmission of reassuring messages to the Egyptian side about the nature of future relations between the two countries.

In a press conference in Cairo, Abdullah Hamdok described their visit as “key,” explaining that their visions coincided with their Egyptian counterparts that there is no military solution to the war in Sudan and there is no way out of it other than political dialogue and a single army that preserves Sudan’s unity and stability.

Fast support

In this context, Cairo’s reception of Hamdok prompted some observers of Sudanese affairs to wonder whether this might lead in the future to an Egyptian tendency to open up to the Rapid Support Forces, especially with Hamdok’s statement of the possibility of Cairo hosting a meeting between Al-Burhan and Hemedti in order to stop the war.

For her part, the Egyptian journalist specializing in African affairs, Sabah Musa, believes that Cairo is open from the beginning to all parties, and that she will not refuse to meet Hemedti if he asks to visit her, explaining that she will listen to his point of view, within the framework of her vision to preserve the recognized legitimate military institution, and not impose any militia. on her.

Moussa adds that Cairo is trying to revitalize its role after the Sudanese crisis entered a dark tunnel with the failure of all previous initiatives, within a vision that relies on bringing together all Sudanese parties to formulate a road map to end the raging war in their country.

Moussa goes on in her statement to Al Jazeera Net, confirming that in January 2023, Cairo invited the Forces of Freedom and Change (Central Council), a predecessor, to a workshop in Cairo, but they refused to respond to the invitation, and later sought to invade African countries such as Uganda, Ethiopia, and South Sudan, with the exception of Cairo. And what is happening now is the realization that the Egyptian role cannot be ignored.

Hamdok's arrival in Cairo was preceded by a lot of confusion about the party carrying out the invitation, as the spokesman for Alaa El-Din Naqd stated that the visit is taking place at the request of the Egyptian Presidency, while the Egyptian Prime Minister's spokesman, Muhammad Al-Homsani, denied sending an official invitation to come to Cairo, explaining that it comes at the request of the Egyptian Prime Minister, Mohamed Al-Homsani. Personal from Hamdok.

An agenda advancing in Cairo

According to a statement issued by Taqadum, the agenda of its delegation to Cairo includes consultation “with the Egyptian leadership” about efforts to stop the war in Sudan, which Sabah Musa explains as an unannounced meeting that the delegation held with Major General Abbas Kamel, Director of Egyptian General Intelligence, to present his vision to the Egyptian side, and to try to mediate Cairo is arranging to hold a meeting with the President of the Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, outside Sudan.

Moussa confirms that Hamdok will work to expand the umbrella of Taqadum to include more Sudanese political forces present in Cairo, most notably the Communist Party and the Arab Socialist Baath Party (origin), as the latter held a meeting with Taqadum last February that resulted in the formation of a joint working group to Reaching the broadest civil front to stop the war.

On the other hand, the National Umma Party submitted to Hamdok a memorandum that included its criticism of some of the steps taken by Taqaddam, explaining that it would present detailed reform proposals within 72 hours, on the condition that it receive responses to them within two weeks, in light of which it would decide “the necessary measures to determine its role in the coalition,” which indicates its threat. By withdrawing or freezing his membership in progress.

In a statement to Hamdok, he highlighted the most important topics he discussed in Egypt, namely stopping the war and humanitarian aid, in addition to the conditions of the Sudanese in Egypt, where he confirmed that he had received promises from Egyptian officials to address problems related to education, health, residency, and entry visas.

Obstacles to the Egyptian role

Although ending the war in Sudan represents a common goal for both Taqadum and Cairo, many obstacles face activating the Egyptian role in trying to reach a comprehensive political settlement formula, as the Sudanese arena appears not yet prepared for a peaceful transformation as a result of the insistence of both parties on resorting to arms, in addition to... The Sudanese crisis is complicated by conflicting international and regional interventions.

The reality of the Sudanese civil political forces does not appear to be any better, as they are dominated by fragmentation and lack the ability to reach a minimum program agreed upon by the Sudanese, which adds more burdens on the shoulders of any mediation.

Meanwhile, Muhammad Turshin believes that the biggest challenge facing Cairo is the anti-Egyptian position of the Rapid Support Forces, which accuses it of using warplanes to target its forces, adding that Cairo can break through this barrier in coordination with the UAE, which has influence over General Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti).

Source: Al Jazeera