Resignation of Ariel Henry: political transition plunges Haiti into a period of uncertainty

The Haitian Prime Minister, in power for 30 months, finally gave in to pressure from gangs and the international community.

He confirmed his resignation Monday evening, after announcements from Caricom, meeting in Jamaica.

It will therefore take place after the appointment of a presidential transition council, after several days of gang violence in the country, but also international pressure, particularly American.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Guyana President Irfaan Ali and Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness attend an emergency meeting on Haiti during the Caribbean Community (Caricom) Heads of Government Conference in Kingston , in Jamaica, March 11, 2024. © Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / Reuters

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At the beginning of last week, the American State Department officially welcomed the return of Ariel Henry to Port-au-Prince.

Again on Wednesday, he denied press reports according to which he was pushing Ariel Henry to resign.

But the situation on the ground with gang violence demanding the departure of the Prime Minister, as well as calls from governments in the region ended up convincing the Biden administration.

Also read: Haiti: Ariel Henry, the fall of a Prime Minister in perpetual search of legitimacy

As of Thursday, the United States, without formally calling for the departure of a Prime Minister whom it has long supported, strongly and publicly encouraged him, through the voice of its ambassador to the United Nations, to commit to a rapid transition. , effectively ending their support.

By welcoming Ariel Henry to Puerto Rico, an American territory when he could not return to Port-au-Prince, and by offering Ariel Henry to stay, American diplomacy further clarifies its message.

The last stage took place this Monday with the participation in Kingston, Jamaica, of Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, at

the Caricom meeting

, to prepare for the aftermath.

By formalizing its support for the transition plan and strengthening its financial support for the future multinational force supposed to help stabilize the security situation after the departure of Ariel Henry, the United States is formalizing its transition to a very uncertain continuation. 

An approach “

far from ideal

 ”

Under the leadership of the organization, political actors and Haitian civil society agreed on the establishment of a presidential council responsible for the transition.

“ 

Far from being ideal, it is an approach which has the merit of being inclusive

 ,” summarizes a Haitian source, cautious about its potential success.

The worst or the best could happen, believes part of the country's press.

The desire to include as many actors as possible with divergent interests and objectives in this presidential council could indeed complicate the equation.

And reveal, if not the fragility of the agreement concluded, the intensity of the balance of power

“ 

The political parties in

Haiti

are poorly structured, they are not very representative.

They are often empty shells around a person without a real political program.

And so it is this dispersion, this fragmentation of political parties that does not facilitate the construction of a national consensus either

 ,” explains Frédéric Thomas, researcher at the Tricontinental Center, based in Belgium.

The most pessimistic will therefore say that internal power struggles could further delay the appointment of a Prime Minister, then of a transitional government, and therefore the organization of elections many times promised, all under the watchful eye of the gangs who today control more than 80% of the metropolitan era of Port-au-Prince. 

One step forward ?

After months of blockage, it is a step forward, but undoubtedly not a resolution of the multifaceted crisis that Haiti is going through.

This presidential council responsible for leading the transition and carrying out elections, according to the stated ambitions, is at this time an empty shell.

Developed by the Caricom States, it is the result of different proposals emanating from the Haitian political and civil sectors, who must now agree on the seven members and the two observers who will compose it... 

Read also Haiti: the tenuous hope of appeasement after the resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry

And this is where the hardest part begins: how, in the 24 hours allotted to them, will these actors manage to come to an agreement, they who represent divergent interests, each with their own ambitions?

And this despite the fact that they have never managed to develop any common position, apart from demanding the departure of Ariel Henry, while knowing that among these actors, supporters of the resigning Prime Minister are present.

What also about gangs, which are not part of this solution?

Will they accept so easily to be sidelined, when their pressure has undeniably taken its toll?

Once this presidential council is formed, Ariel Henry will effectively leave office.

This presidential council will then have to appoint a Prime Minister.

And here too, we can imagine the internal struggles to come.

Haiti is plunged into an ocean of unknowns, with a transitional solution which appears, according to several observers, to be imposed once again by the international community.

Kenya suspends police mission in Haiti, says senior Kenyan foreign ministry official

Kenya has decided to suspend the planned dispatch of police officers to Haiti, as part of an international mission supported by the UN, said a senior official from the Kenyan Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The United States reacted immediately.

The State Department said it sees no reason to delay this police mission, believing that a transition agreement will allow the establishment of a new government, as Nairobi wishes.

“ 

There has been a radical change following the complete breakdown of law and order and the resignation of Haiti's Prime Minister,

 ” Ariel Henry, said Korir Sing'oei, secretary general of the Kenyan ministry.

“

 Without political administration in Haiti, there is no anchor point on which a police deployment can rest, the Kenyan government will therefore wait for the installation of a new constitutional authority in Haiti before taking further action decisions on the matter

 ,” he added.

He added that Nairobi, however, remained willing to " 

provide leadership

 " to the international mission, which was approved by the UN Security Council in October.

Kenya had said it was ready to send a thousand police officers to Haiti, in the grip of chaos due to clashes between the police and armed gangs, but this project encountered numerous legal obstacles in Kenya.

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