The losses of the Israeli occupation army continue in Gaza (French)
Haaretz military analyst Yossi Melman believes that the Israeli invasion of Gaza could turn into a war with no end in sight and without the two parties being able to reach a settlement agreement to end it, just like the Russian attack on Ukraine.
He says that after 5 months (158 days to be precise) of war in Gaza, there is no escape from the realization that Israel is going through a process of “Ukrainization.”
It may also be part of a long war (Ukraine is already two years old) with no end in sight and without the two sides being able to reach a settlement agreement to end it.
In both war zones, participants insist on achieving victory, without being able to explain exactly what constitutes victory and how it should be achieved.
This is a kind of war where there is no difference between the front line and the home front, and civilians become its victims.
Despite all the differences, all parties - Ukraine, the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), Russia and Israel - tend to say that they are the victims, that they are right, and believe that they are completely justified in their actions and that justice must be obtained on a fair basis.
There is another similarity: Although Ukraine and Israel benefit from massive military and diplomatic aid from the United States and are unlikely to continue the war without it, they are both dissatisfied and utterly ungrateful.
Tactical achievements
The military analyst believes that Israel and Ukraine can be proud of their tactical achievements.
Ukraine, for example, is proud of sinking the Russian fleet in the Black Sea and decommissioning it.
In Israel, the military spokesman issues additional reports every day about successes on the battlefield, especially the number of Hamas casualties.
Daniel Hagari said that about 13,000 Hamas members were killed in the war.
The report did not clarify the mechanism of this account, such as who is defined as a fighter, activist, or collaborator with Hamas.
But even if this number is very accurate, it is still unclear what percentage of the movement's members are killed and wounded.
The writer believes that "Hamas received painful blows, and most of its missile arsenal and military capabilities were destroyed," but he adds that even if half of its ranks, or 60 to 70% of them, were eliminated, Hamas would continue to show flexibility and determination.
The week before last witnessed an increase in the fall of rockets launched from Gaza on several Gaza border towns, including Sderot and Ashkelon, as well as the Hatzarim area near Beersheba.
The writer points out that these rocket launches aim to show that Hamas and Islamic Jihad are still alive, and not to cause loss of life or property.
The army is in distress
The military analyst says that Hamas is waging a guerrilla war of attrition against Israel, as Hezbollah did for 18 years, from the First Lebanon War in 1982 to the Israeli withdrawal in 2000.
In addition to their shameful failures before the war and on October 7, military intelligence and the Israeli army in general find it difficult to obtain information about the fate of prisoners and carry out rescue operations, and the danger to their lives increases every day.
He refers to the assessment recently expressed by former Prime Minister Ehud Barak that of the 134 prisoners (31 of them dead) still in Gaza, including 10 foreigners, it is unlikely that even half of them are alive.
Even if the absence of a prisoner deal can be blamed mainly on Hamas - which insists on a precondition of an Israeli promise to end the war, backed by international guarantees - it still appears that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in no hurry to put pressure on Israel. .
The military analyst says that Netanyahu's partners in the far-right coalition oppose reaching an agreement.
They have turned Netanyahu into a hostage in their hands through their threats to break up the coalition, and there is nothing Netanyahu fears more than the collapse of the government and new elections that will remove him from power.
But above all, the army is trapped in Gaza due to the absence of clear instructions from the political leadership about a plan and strategy to end the war.
It is already clear that Netanyahu - for personal and political considerations - is not striving to end the fighting in Gaza.
Therefore, he refuses to prepare a strategy for exiting Gaza and ending the war.
He adds that even if the Shin Bet security service and military intelligence succeed in tracking down the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, in the Gaza tunnels, Hamas will not disappear either, as a movement that enjoys popular support in Gaza, the West Bank, and the Palestinian diaspora, or as an ideology.
Washington's patience is running out
Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is worsening by the day.
Now the Israeli army, and even the small cabinet, after weeks of repression and denial, realize that this is a serious crisis.
More than 30,000 people - about 40% of them children - were killed by IDF fire during the war, or 1.5% of Gaza's population.
In addition, the United States is gradually running out of patience with the behavior of the Netanyahu government.
Even Defense Minister Benny Gantz's controversial trip to Washington will not make things easier for Israel.
US President Joe Biden - who described himself as a Zionist - will not be able to save Israel by continuing to defend its movements and its slowness during an election year in which pressure on him from the liberal parties in the Democratic Party is increasing.
Netanyahu and the rest of the right are hoping for Biden's downfall, but they are forgetting (or ignoring) the fact that former President Donald Trump's hatred and disdain for Netanyahu, which he has publicly expressed on several occasions, is likely to cause more damage.
The military analyst believes that there is a disaster for Israel if Trump is elected next November.
Source: Israeli press