Following the resignation of Ariel Henry, Prime Minister of Haiti, the possibility of appeasement remains very hypothetical on the island, prey to growing anarchy.
Yielding to pressure from the country's regional partners, he announced that he would continue to manage "current affairs until the appointment of a Prime Minister and a government".
His departure, demanded by the gangs and part of the population, was announced Monday during an emergency meeting in Jamaica, in the presence of members of Caricom (Caribbean Community) and representatives of the UN.
It was from the American territory of Puerto Rico that Ariel Henry threw in the towel.
At the end of February, he went to Kenya to seek help from the UN in setting up an international security mission.
He has since been stuck in Puerto Rico [a Caribbean island under United States sovereignty, editor's note] after being prevented from returning to the Haitian capital.
A U.S. official said Monday he was welcome to stay if he wanted to stay.
His resignation comes in a context of escalating tensions in Haiti, where armed gangs are leading a veritable insurrection against all institutions, or what remains of them.
For more than a week, Port-au-Prince has been the scene of incessant clashes between police and armed gangs.
The gangs attacked strategic sites such as the presidential palace, police stations and prisons.
Latest sign of the security crisis: the evacuation, Monday, of all European Union personnel present in Haiti.
And that of the United States, evacuated by helicopter
Conditions not met for elections
At the end of the meeting, the President of Guyana Mohamed Irfaan Ali, also President of Caricom, said he was "happy" to announce "a transitional governance agreement" leading to "a short-term action plan security" and "free and fair elections".
A promise "constantly mentioned in Haiti", recalls Rosa Freedman, professor of law and conflict at the University of Reading and specialist in Haiti.
"Even when free and fair elections take place, we see time and time again that international actors intervene and overthrow elected leaders, like Jean-Bertrand Aristide [ex-Haitian president ousted from power in 2004, Editor's note]. Moreover, the "International interference in the country's elections is a recurring phenomenon."
According to the expert, "Haitians need to choose who governs them, but it is absolutely not certain that this will happen."
Also read: In Haiti, “Port-au-Prince is like a city at war”
Romain Le Cour Grandmaison, doctor of political science and researcher specializing in organized crime at Global initiative, agrees: “The resignation of Ariel Henry does not open the way to the organization of free and transparent elections in Haiti. than before, because the necessary conditions are not met."
The dates which may be announced in the coming days “will serve as milestones to move towards elections”.
Since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, Haiti has found itself without a head of state or a functional parliament.
No elections have been organized since October 2016, accentuating the political crisis.
Ariel Henry had been appointed by Jovenel Moïse a few days before his assassination and his initial mandate was due to end at the beginning of February.
But with no democratic institutions in place, no clear procedure exists to replace it.
“Taking Control of the Gangs”
At the same time, unrest has continued to grow on the island, as gangs have massively expanded their financial power, their territory – they now control 80% of Port-au-Prince – and their influence.
At the beginning of March, Jimmy Chérizier, considered the most powerful gang leader in Haiti, nicknamed "Barbecue", had threatened a "civil war which will lead to genocide" if Ariel Henry remained in power.
Armed gang leader Jimmy Chérizier, aka "Barbecue", and his men in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, March 5, 2024. © Clarens Siffroy, AFP
“We must learn lessons from the immense capacity of these groups to influence political life,” raises Romain Le Cour Grandmaison.
“You will have to be extremely strategist and politically adept to be able to take control of the gangs and govern in such a volatile context.”
In early March, a state of emergency was declared in Port-au-Prince, where unrest had damaged communications services and allowed the escape of several thousand detainees.
According to UN data, more than 362,000 people – more than half of whom are children – are currently displaced on the island, a figure which has jumped 15% since the start of the year.
Multiple sexual assaults, rapes, torture and kidnappings have been reported.
See alsoGang war in Haiti: the capital in the hands of armed gangs
“The country is going through an absolutely catastrophic period in terms of security, humanitarian and political terms. This will therefore be a trial by fire for the Haitian political class,” continues Romain Le Cour Grandmaison.
“The challenge is enormous for those who called for the departure of Ariel Henry, who will now have to take responsibility for a country in one of the most complex situations in recent years.”
“Tackling the roots of the problem”
Just before the meeting in Jamaica, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken pledged an additional $133 million in aid from the United States, including $100 million for the multinational force to be sent to Haiti, and $33 million 'humanitarian aid.
For his part, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who attended the discussions virtually, had offered, a little earlier, around $91 million.
If the sums announced are substantial, the requirements of “Barbecue” remain no less.
As leaders met behind closed doors, the influential gang leader told reporters that if the international community continued on its current path, "it would plunge Haiti into even greater chaos."
Also read: In Haiti, “the population has very bad memories of foreign interventions”
Financial assistance is a necessary first step, but it cannot be the only answer.
According to Rosa Freedman, a different approach is essential to get Haiti out of the crisis.
“This resignation is an opportunity for the international community to support Haitians so that they find their own solutions to internal problems,” suggests the expert.
“We must support Haitian institutions, such as the police, the army and civil society,” she continues, citing the example of other countries in the region such as Colombia, Mexico, El Salvador and Honduras – countries that have successfully tackled drug cartels and gangs with targeted international support.
“For Haiti to move forward, we must address the roots of the problem: corruption by the wealthy elite, gang violence and the lack of representation of the people in government.”
Haiti's fragility also finds its roots in the trials of its past.
The exorbitant compensation paid to France after independence in 1804 handicapped the country's fledgling economy.
The long dictatorship of the Duvaliers then left profound consequences.
Finally, the 2010 earthquake, with its heavy human losses and considerable material damage, further aggravated the situation, wiping out years of economic development.
A few hours after his resignation, the post-Ariel Henry period looks uncertain for Haiti.
“If the current feeling tends towards relief, a strong skepticism dominates the Haitian population,” affirms Romain Le Cour Grandmaison.
"The expectation of appeasement is palpable, and there is an urgent need to address the humanitarian crisis. But Haitians, aware of the political games underway, have learned to be wary of big promises of political unity."
According to the expert, "the next few weeks will be crucial to restore a minimum of confidence."
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