Highlights: Physical voting for the Russian presidential election takes place from Friday March 15 to Sunday March 17. If the result is not in doubt, the suspense is important for the political elite. For government figures, a potential reshuffle is a career issue. But for political sense, we must keep in mind that in Russia, real power has become increasingly concentrated in the hands of the head of state and his inner circle. The summit of power has been characterized by unfailing stability for two years, writes Anissa El Jabri.

Even if some remote regions of Russia have already started to vote and electronic voting will be widely deployed, physical voting for the presidential election takes place from Friday the 15th to Sunday...

Russia: a presidential election which should not change the stability of the elites

If the result is not in doubt, the suspense is in reality important for the political elite, for whom this moment marks the possibility of changes, between social “elevator”, being sidelined or maintaining their position.

Residents vote at home during early voting for the Russian presidential election in the village of Yersenevo, Republic of Karelia, March 10, 2024, alongside images of President Vladimir Putin.

By: Anissa El Jabri Follow

From our correspondent in Moscow,

The Russian Constitution provides that the president,

after his inauguration

, accepts the resignation of the government, appoints the Prime Minister and asks him to form a new government, after its approval by an approved assembly.

But Vladimir Putin can also decide to change nothing, and he has done so

several times

Vladimir Putin, as we know, hates acting under pressure or on obvious dates: we remember, for example, his surprise change of Prime Minister, on January 15, 2020. Dimitri Medvedev resigned and

a virtual unknown took the post: Mikhail Michoustine

, who until then was not a leading figure, but the very efficient boss of the tax service.

At the time, the astonishment was all the greater because, among the names circulating for possible promotion, there was, for example, that of Sergei Sobyanin, the very loyal mayor of Moscow.

The announcement came after another, also a surprise, of an overhaul of institutions and a reform of the Constitution.

Read alsoPresidential election in Russia: Vladimir Putin's impressionist campaign

Potential changes that are more technical than political

For government figures, a potential reshuffle is a career issue.

But these very possible changes are most often considered more technical than political.

In the regions, in government agencies or large companies, everyone held their breath and took particular care to show the head of state that the country was well run during this campaign period.

All with the objective of climbing the ranks.

But for political sense, we must keep in mind that in Russia, real power has, through successive shifts in recent years, become increasingly concentrated in the hands of the head of state and his inner circle.

A phenomenon which has particularly strengthened since Vladimir Putin sent his soldiers to Ukraine.

But for political sense, we must keep in mind that in Russia, real power comes through successive shifts.

In recent years, the president has increasingly concentrated power in his hands, as well as his inner circle.

The phenomenon has particularly strengthened since Vladimir Putin sent his soldiers to Ukraine.

The summit of the stable state despite the war

The summit of power has been characterized by unfailing stability for two years.

Last signal before the launch of

the war:

on February 21, 2022, Vladimir Putin convened his security council.

On the agenda, the recognition of the Ukrainian separatist republics of Donbass.

Heads of external and internal intelligence, heads of government, diplomacy, defense and assemblies: all the leaders of the major cogs of power were present.

Since this episode, nothing has changed at the top of power: everyone is still in the same positions.

As if two years of conflict,

a mutiny

, a mobilization, military setbacks, bombings never seen in certain Russian regions since 1945, had never happened.

Vladimir Putin has never hidden his reproaches to some of them, who have even seen themselves criticized publicly.

But here again, the same unwritten rule: the Russian head of state does not change anything under pressure.

For him, the stability of his inner circle is also the stability of his own power

Read alsoRussian presidential election: Putin in civilizational war with the West

Russia: a presidential election which should not change the stability of the elites

Russia: a presidential election which should not change the stability of the elites

Potential changes that are more technical than political

The summit of the stable state despite the war

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